The Betfair Insider: Ascot, Saturday November 26 2016

Posted: November 24, 2016 at 5:08 pm

Current Track Rating: Good 3

Rail: +6

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 25th – Max 36, sunny. 0% chance of rain (0mm)

Saturday 26th  – Max 37, mostly sunny. 10% chance of rain (0mm)

 

R6 Tattersalls Cup Listed 2100m HCP 3YO+

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have come via the Ascot Gold Cup
  • 1 of past 5 SP favourites have won
  • 2 of past 5 winners SP’d at $61
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 2nd up off a spell or freshen up

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Dubai Escapade – SP $11 56kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 8 weeks 7th Kalgoorlie Cup LR 2300m Kalgoorlie

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Global Flirt – SP $61 55kg BR 5 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 14th Ascot Gold Cup LR 1800m Ascot

Rail True

1st – Black Tycoon – SP $10 58kg BR 4 – 4th up, 2 weeks 9th Ascot Gold Cup LR 1800m Ascot

Moonlight Bay – SP $2.70 54kg BR 6 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Ascot Gold Cup LR 1800m Ascot

New Spice – SP $61 53kg BR 13 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 9th Ascot Gold Cup LR 1800m Ascot

Major Players 

1. Zarantz: Completely outclassed in the Railway last week and I’m sure connections only used that race as a fitness run. Out to 2100m is more to his liking and he fits the profile of the type of roughie that has won in the past.

4. Tonto: Winner of the key lead up race the Ascot Gold Cup. This distance is ideal and he closed off strongly last start. History is against the winner of the Ascot Gold Cup and he looks well exposed with 31 starts under his belt so not convinced he’s a value bet.

9. Bedamijo: A narrow second to Tonto in the Ascot Gold Cup after being allowed to slide to the front. Will be thereabouts but not convinced there’s much upside coming into Saturday’s race.

10. Dark Alert: Over-raced at stages in the Ascot Gold Cup and held ground running 1.8 lengths. Will improve again up to the 2100m but again can’t see major improvement.

12. Properantes: Looks well placed here although does come through the York Cup as opposed to the Ascot Gold Cup. Finished off strongly at York over 1500m and steps up to 2100m where he has raced well, albeit at benchmark grade. Has previously attempted Stakes grade and was competitive with Bedamijo on the 23rd of December 2015.  Appeals as the value bet in a pretty average contest.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Properantes – 3 units at $5 or more

R8 Winterbottom Stakes G1 1200m WFA 3YO+

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners trained in WA
  • 4 of past 5 winners were SP Favourites
  • 3 of past 5 winners 3rd up in their preparation
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been Mares (Ortensia)

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Buffering – SP $2.50 fav 58.5kg BR 8 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th Darley Classic G1 1200m Flemington

2nd – Watermans Bay – SP $9 58.5kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 2.5 weeks 2nd Colonel Reeves G3 1100m Ascot

3rd – Fast ‘n’ Rocking – SP $7 58.5kg BR 3 – 6th up, 4 weeks 4th Manikato Stakes G1 1200m Moonee Valley

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Magnifisio – SP $7.50 56.5kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks Lee Steere G2 1400m Ascot

2nd – Watermans Bay – SP $41 58.5kg BR 6 – 4th up, 3 weeks MSS Security Listed 1200m Flemington

3rd – Shining Light – SP $14 58.5kg BR 11 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Colonel Reeves G3 1100m Ascot

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Buffering – SP $2 fav 58.5kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st VRC Sprint Classic G1 1200m Flemington

2nd – Moment Of Change – SP $7 58.5kg BR 9 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd VRC Sprint Classic G1 1200m Flem

3rd – Watermans Bay – SP $41 58.5 BR 6 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Colonel Reeves G3 1000m Ascot

1st – Barakey – SP $2.70 fav 58.5kg BR 9 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Colonel Reeves G3 1000m Ascot

Ortensia – SP $2.20 fav 56.5kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Mumm Stakes Listed 1100m Flemington

Major Players 

1. Terravista: A fantastic return in the Mumm Stakes (Listed) when a fast finishing second to Redzel who had the benefit of the outside fence. Very solid formlines over his previous two preps however his best runs have been up the Flemington straight. His biggest issue is his position on the map and if he can overcome that he’s a winning chance. Expect him to drift from early markets.

2. Malaguerra: Second to Star Turn in the Schillaci and held off the fast finishing and highly promising Spieth in the Darley Classic. This looks like two of the best formlines in Australian sprinting and he gets every favour tucked in behind a hot speed and has proven multiple times he can accelerate off a strong tempo. Only bad luck will stop him winning here.

3. Takedown: A lovely big striding horse for trainer Gary Moore. Has won twice at Group 2 level in Sydney before racing well at Group 3 level in Melbourne. Will need luck to get across from the draw but is the type of horse that should handle the conditions well. He’s progressive and I’m keen to make him my second best result in the race.

4. Rock Magic: Looks the pick of the locals after a strong showing (2nd) in the Colonel Reeves Stakes at Group 3. Steps up to 1200m which looks ideal and will handle the hot conditions which is a big plus. Just not sure how much extra improvement he has in him and I suspect he needs to run to a career PB to win.

10. State Solicitor: Has taken all before him winning his last seven starts. He won softly getting home hard off a slow tempo. If he can keep in touch off a strong tempo he’s a big chance to finish all over the top of them. To do that he needs to smash his career PB. Looks primed for this and I’m very wary of him.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Malaguerra – 6 units at $3 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Takedown – 2 units at $9 or more

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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