The Betfair Insider: Ascot, Saturday 3rd December 2016 – Kingston Town Classic

Posted: December 1, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: +3m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 2nd – Max 29, sunny. 0% chance of rain (0mm)

Saturday 3rd – Max 24, partly cloudy. 20% chance of rain (0mm)

 

R8 Kingston Town Classic 1800m Group 1 3YO+ WFA

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners Colts or Geldings (3YO Filly Perfect reflection won it 2015)
  • 3 of past 5 winners 3YOs
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 3 of past 5 winners have come through G1 Railway Stakes 1600m
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 8 or closer
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 2 weeks between runs

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail Out 6, Heavy 8

1st – Perfect Reflection – SP $4.40 fav 50kg BR 12 – 5th up, 3.5 weeks 1st Champion Fillies Stakes G3 1600m Ascot

2nd – Delicacy – SP $5 56.5kg BR 16 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 6th Railway Stakes G1 1600m Ascot

3rd – Dark Musket – SP $151 56.5kg BR 13 – 5th up, 1 week 5th BM72 1600m Ascot

Rail Out 6, Good 3

1st – Moriarty – SP $4.60 fav 59kg BR 1 – 8th up, 2 weeks 3rd Railway Stakes G1 1600m Ascot

2nd – Disposition – SP $4.60 fav 52kg BR 13 – 6th up, 2 weeks 2nd WA Guineas G2 1600m Ascot

3rd – Elite Belle – SP $7 57kg BR 7 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Carbine Club Listed 1400m Ascot

Rail Out 3, Good 3

1st – Ihtsahymn – SP $4.20 52kg BR 2 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st WA Guineas G2 1600m Ascot

2nd – Luckygray – SP $3 fav 59kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Railway Stakes G1 1600m Ascot

3rd – Rohan – SP $21 59kg BR 4 – 5th up, 2 weeks 8th Tattersall’s listed 2100m Ascot

Rail Out 3, Good 3

1st – Luckygray – SP $2.25 fav 59kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Railway Stakes G1 1600m Ascot

2nd – Mr Moet – SP $13 59kg BR 1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Railway Stakes G1 1600m Ascot

3rd – God Has Spoken – SP $26 59kg BR 3 – 4th up, 2 weeks 5th Railway Stakes G1 1600m Ascot

Playing God – SP $19 58.5kg BR 5 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 14th Railway Stakes G1 1600m Ascot

Major Players 

3. Stratum Star: Over-raced last start in the Sandown Stakes but fought on gamely to fight out the finish with the improving Redkirk Warrior. I expect him to prefer the tempo of the Kingston Town and he can lead or take a sit from Barrier 1. He’s a winner out to 2000m and 21 days between runs with two trials looks a good setup here. Knockout runner for the in-form Damien Lane.

4. Kawi: Is the ‘weighted’ horse coming from the Railway Stakes and now meets most of his rivals 4-5.5kg better at WFA. Enjoyed a plumb run on the rails and was held up at times in the straight. He was only beaten by 4.3 lengths and stepping out to 1800m is suitable and will be in the finish.

10. Scales Of Justice: A dynamic winner of the Railway when jumping from Group 3 to Group 1 company for the first time. Was the fastest through the early section of the race (led) and was the second fastest over the final 200m when being eased down for victory. The negative is the weight rise of 6kg but I don’t see the wide draw as being a major concern as he should work across to the lead. An outstanding talent.

11. Vanbrugh: Is a few lengths short at elite G1 WFA level on the east coast, so looks well placed here in W.A. He maps to travel in the ‘sweet spot’ from barrier seven and can accelerate strongly off a solid tempo. Blinkers first time could really bring him on and he looks over the odds in early markets.

16. Perfect Reflection: Had a nice run in the Railway before being forced wide on the turn. She finished the race off nicely and although she meets Scales Of Justice better at the weights I can see her turning the result around. But she will be spotting that runner a big start.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Scales of Justice – 4 units at $4 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Vanbrugh – 1 unit at $11 or more

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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