The Betfair Insider: Ascot, Saturday 19th November 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 6

Rail: +3m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 18th – Max 28, sunny. 0% chance of rain (0mm)

Saturday 19th  – Max 28, mostly sunny. 0% chance of rain (0mm)

 

R7 W.A Guineas G2 1600m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have used the Fairetha Stakes as their lead up run
  • 5 of past 5 winners have been males
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 10 or closer
  • 5 of past 5 winners have been 3rd or 4th up

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail +3, Good 3

1st – Man Booker – SP $9 56.5kg BR 11 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd Fairetha Listed 1400m Ascot

2nd – Spirit Bird – SP $21 54.5kg BR 6 – 6th up, 1 week 4th W.A Champion G3 1600m Ascot

3rd –  The Cobbla – SP $15 56.5kg BR 6 – 5th up, 2 weeks 5th Fairetha Listed 1400m Ascot

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Rommel – SP $21 56.6kg BR 4 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd Fairetha Listed 1400m Ascot

2nd – Disposition – SP $2.10 fav 56.5kg BR 2 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Fairetha Listed 1400m Ascot

3rd – Say Geronimo – $21 56.5kg BR 8 – 4th up, 2 weeks 5th Fairetha Listed 1400m Ascot

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Ihtsahymn – SP $9 56.5kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 6th Fairetha Listed 1400m Ascot

2nd – Miss Rose De Lago – $3.50 fav 54.5kg BR 12 – 6th up, 1 week 1st Champ Fillies G3 1600m Ascot

3rd – Saint Bro – SP $7 56.5 BR 15 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Fairetha Listed 1400m Ascot

Academus – SP $4 fav 56.5kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Hilton Stakes 1400m Flemington

King Saul – SP $4.40 56kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Fairetha Listed 1400m Ascot

Major Players 

1. Saul’s Special: Smart colt who had every favour in running and won well in the Fairetha Stakes which is the key lead up for this race. He’ll map three wide in the running line midfield here and should get his chance to win if 1600m is what he’s looking for. Respecting his short SP last time in but can’t see much value here at $7.

5. Get Over It: Looks suited stepping up to 1600m compared to others and hard not to like his effort last start when held up in the home straight. He’s drawn to get a soft run in transit and William Pike replaces Paul Harvey. Was heavily backed last time and $10 in early markets looks an error. There looks to be plenty of pressure in this race so if he can get clear running he’ll be hard to beat.

6. Lusaha: Has come back a much better horse this time in and will get a similar run in transit as he did in the Fairetha Stakes. Knockout runner with Craig Williams aboard.

10. Humanity: Plenty to like about this on pace runner but suspect he’ll be better suited up in distance later in his career. Confident others can turn the tables on his last start second.

14. Whispering Brook: Very smart filly who measured up in Melbourne earlier in the spring. This looks a big afterthought and she’s rock hard fit so I expect they will try and lead all the way. Wouldn’t shock me to see her win but I can won’t be on her at $6. She’s likely to trade shorter ‘In-Play’ so could be a great Back-To-Lay proposition.

16. Ellicazoom: Is the best chance of the Fillies coming through the Champion Stakes where she found plenty of trouble. Has the 1600m run under her belt and will be back midfield with cover which will suit with a genuine tempo expected. Pulled up lame last start so has obviously recovered from that and perhaps keeping her fresh from that run will work in her favour.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Get Over It – 4 units at $7 or more

R8 Railway Stakes G1 1600m

Speed Map

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners carried 53.5kg or less
  • 1 of past 5 winners was the SP favourite
  • 4 of past 5 winners have won from wide barriers (11, 12, 12, 12)
  • 2 of past 5 winners have used Lee Steere Stakes as lead up run (2014 & 2015)
  • 1 of past 5 winners has been a Mare

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail +3m Good 3

1st – Good Project – SP $6 53kg BR 11 – 6th up, 2.5 weeks 2nd BM90 4 & 5YO 1400m Flemington

2nd – Messene – SP $12 56.5kg BR 1 – 7th up, 3 weeks 8th Guvera Stakes G1 1400m Flemington

3rd – Balmont Girl – SP $20 53kg BR2 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 5th Asian Beau G3 1400m Ascot

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Elite Belle – SP $6 53.5kg BR 12 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 4th Lee Steere Stakes G2 1400m Ascot

2nd – Balmont Girl – SP $9 53kg BR 11 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Asian Beau G3 1400m Ascot

3rd – Moriarty – SP $19 57kg BR 15 – 7th up, 3 weeks 8th Mackinnon Stakes G1 2000m Flemington

Rail True, Good 3

1st – Luckygray – SP $20 58kg BR 12 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th Lee Steere Stakes G2 1400m Ascot

2nd – Platinum Rocker – $21 53kg BR 14 – 4th up, 3 weeks 1st Asian Beau G3 1400m Ascot

3rd – Fire Up Fifi – SP $9 54kg BR 13 – 5th up, 3 weeks 3rd Myer Classic G1 1600m Flemington

Mr Moet – SP $20 53.5kg BR 4 – 1st up, 14 weeks 1st Strickland G3 2000m Belmont

Luckygray – SP $4 fav 53kg BR 12 – 4th up, 3 weeks 1st Asian Beau G3 1400m Ascot

Major Players 

1. Kawi: The Kiwi visitor arrived with big wraps but paraded poorly prior to the Lee Steere Stakes. He was off the bit on the turn and ran fourth as the $3.50 favourite. Hard to come into, but could be worth saving on at big odds should he parade better.

2. Disposition: A game second in the Lee Steere Stakes after enjoying a perfect run. Is Group One placed at the mile when running second to Lucky Hussler in the Toorak. Drops 3kg here but has drawn 19. Will need luck.

4. He Or She: This looks his best opportunity to a Group One back to his home track and well down in grade when you look at all five starts this preparation. He’s well weighted with 55.5kg which is outside the profile but a horse of his quality shouldn’t really be here. Will sit in the running line and is a ridiculous price.

5. Good Project: Looks ready to peal fourth up after a solid run in the Cantala Stakes behind Le Romain. Hugh Bowman now takes the ride and barrier seven looks ideal. Knockout runner who can defends his 2015 Railway crown.

6. Perfect Reflection: Winner of the Lee Steere Stakes two weeks ago at Ascot. Perfect Reflection settled last behind a solid speed and ran the fastest last 600, 400 and 200m to take out the race in impressive style. She’s drawn well again and the step up to 1600m looks suitable. The only knock on her is that everything went her way in the Lee Steere including securing a ‘room service’ run at the point of the turn.

7. Mackintosh: Third in the Group One Epsom, fifth beaten only 1.4 lengths in the Cantala Stakes at Flemington. He has rock solid Group 1 Mile credentials but this will be his third straight run at the Mile which is a slight negative and barrier 16 won’t be easy for Oliver.

9. Ragesse: Winner of the Group 3 Chatham Stakes at Flemington. He’s fifth up here, will get a dry track which is too his liking and is progressing well but this a big challenge out to 1600m.

14. Scales Of Justice: A lightly raced 4YO gelding with an impressive record of 15 starts for 6 wins. We won the R.J. Peters Stakes at Group 3 level in impressive fashion. Drops 6kg and is a progressive type. It looks a weaker formline vs the Lee Steere but don’t be fooled by putting a line through this horse who will be in the finish.

16. Tradesman: Was the best run in the Lee Steere Stakes after being forced out wide on the track while Perfect Reflection came underneath him. He finished the race of well and will appreciate the mile. Drawn perfectly and worth a bet at near double figures.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) He Or She – 1 unit at $17 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Scales Of Justice – 2 units at $8 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Tradesman – 2 units at $7 or more

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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