The Betfair Insider: Angle Park, Friday October 7 2016 – Adelaide Cup Final

Posted: October 7, 2016

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R8 Adelaide Cup Final G1

Distance: 515m

Track Record: Brett Lee 28.88 (25/1/2001)

Past Winners

2015 – Fernando Bale

2014 – Allen Deed

2013 – Ernie Bung Arrow

2012 – Spud Regis

2011 – Mepunga Nicky

Race Analysis

Weekend Binge can show sizzling early pace and he easily ran the best first section of the heats last week, I am hoping he can replicate the dose here and hold on to win. He seems to be getting stronger with every start. Benteke showed great track sense in his heat and even though his record is much better from inside, I am not too bothered and if he can avoid early trouble, I expect him to be right in the finish. Worm Burner is the local superstar and National Sprint Champion who can never be dismissed however I believe he will be over bet here and I prefer him from a wider draw.

Dyna Boomer benefited from other dogs finding early trouble but he ran the quickest heat time and had an enormous run home time. I just feel he may get shuffled back early this time around. Shima Song has been racing with great heart lately but has a poor draw here and I feel she will struggle to cross the chasers underneath.

Aqua Cheetah scored a gutsy heat win and she could be the forgotten runner here. If she can lead clearly, she would take a power of beating. One For Me needs a stack of early luck to feature from the squeeze draw, however trainer Jeffrey Britton has a knack of peaking his dogs at the right time. Mrs Bubbles is one of the classiest chasers in S.A. but with all the Victorian raiders in this final, she is outclassed for mine.

Field & Stats

1. Worm Burner: Best 29.17 (27/8/16). Won his heat in 30.31 with a first split of 4.56. four wins from six starts from Box 1. 19 of 31 career wins from Boxes 5-8. An astonishing 31 wins over this trip. Group One National Sprint Championship winner.

2. Dyna Boomer: Best 29.42, ran this time in heat with a first split of 4.67. Only missed a placing twice in 12 career starts. Three of five career wins Boxes 1-2. Most inexperienced chaser in field (12 starts).

3. Aqua Cheetah: Best 30.16, ran this time in heat, first split of 4.56. 5 of 11 career wins Boxes 1-3 but only one win from three starts this draw. Won past three of five starts.

4. Weekend Binge: Best 29.47 (8/9/16). Won his heat in 30.01 with a first split of 4.34 (quickest). Has yet to taste defeat here in three starts. Recent S.A Derby winner.

5. One For Me: Best 30.16. won heat in this time with a first split of 4.55. Has never won from this draw in four starts. In the money in 29 of 43 starts.

6. Shima Song: Best 30.25, ran this time in heat, first split of 4.50. Three wins from five starts this draw. Placed in the Shepparton Cup recently.

7. Mrs Bubbles: Best 29.43 (21/1/16). Qualified for this final by being fastest runner up in 30.19, 1st split of 4.49 but has ran a 4.40 split previously. Has a massive 16 wins over this trip.

8. Benteke: Best 29.97. Ran this time in heat with a first split of 4.49. six of seven career wins have come from Boxes 1-4. Only one placing from this draw. Finalist in National Sprint Championship.

9. Leo’s Gift: First Emergency. Best 29.71 (8/9/16). Second in heat with a time of 30.20. First split of 4.47. Placed in 15 of 21 starts. Suited to a wide draw if he gains a start.

10. Marlow Brown: Second Emergency. Best 29.59 (23/11/15). Runner up in heat with a time of 30.31. First split of 4.48. Has amassed 12 wins over this trip. Been in the money in his past five starts.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Weekend Binge >$2.90 for 4 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Worm Burner < $3.30 for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Benteke > $7.50 for 1 unit

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