The Betfair Insider: Albion Park, Friday 9th December 2016 – Brisbane Cup Final

Posted: December 6, 2016

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R6 Brisbane Cup Final – 520m 

Track Record: Dyna Double One 29.51 (25/6/2015)

Past Winners

2015- Dyna Double One

2014- Keybow

2013- Kiss Me Ketut

2012- Got A Moment

2011- Glen Gallon

Race Analysis

OUTSIDE PASS has all the class and is racing in career best form. She races well from wide draws and can either get forward early or is versatile enough to come from behind. She deserves to win a Group 1 here and I will be betting with confidence.

BLAZIN’ BOMBER has come up with a poor draw but he is a brilliant chaser and will run through a brick wall on the first turn and he may have the last crack at them late. WHATA NICE SIZE is the blowout chance here, he may be able to get forward and lead early as he should be able to avoid the dogs drawn either side of him at box rise. If there was any trouble behind him and he may be able to pinch a big break down the back.

THIRTY TALKS is a superstar at his best but is still risky at box rise for mine. He benefited from the inside draw and smaller field in his heat, but I am not willing to lay him. ZABDON FERRARI was another heat winner for gun trainer Tony Brett and even though this chaser saluted he did not want the race to be a metre further and he was walking late. With all the strong chasers in this event I am keen to take him on.

CRAZY VIXON is rarely out of the money but would need to be at her absolute best to feature in the finish even though she has a great draw here. NOT LIKE TOMMY can be risky at box rise and she does not map well here, I cannot see her getting across this field early and I can see her getting posted wide on the first turn.

LADY ABIGAIL will be the roughie of the field and would need a miracle to win, the squeeze draw is no help and I can see her getting shuffled back early and not figuring in the finish.

Field & Stats

1. Crazy Vixon: Best 30.05 (26/5/16). Ran a PB 29.96 over this circuit in heat in running second. Ran a first split of 5.54. Has been in the money in 33 of her 40 starts. Never missed a placing from this draw in six starts.

2. Zabdon Ferrari: Best 29.86. Recorded this time in heat with a first split of 5.56. Has amassed five wins from eight starts this draw. Least experienced chaser in field (31 starts). Has at least placed in his past 13 of 14 starts.

3. Thirty Talks: Best 29.66. (2/6/2016). Ran first split of 5.63 in heat with an overall winning time of 29.77. Has only had one start from this draw and was unplaced. Youngest chaser in field.  Recent Group 3 Ipswich Cup winner.

4. Whata Nice Size: Best 29.88. Ran this time when winning heat with a first split of 5.57. Second most experienced chaser over this trip (24 starts). Never missed a placing from this draw (two starts). Been in the money in his past five starts.

5. Blazin’ Bomber: Best 29.71 (30/6/2016). Won his heat in 29.75 with a first split of 5.61. One win and one placing from three starts this draw. Has won races from every box. Speed Star winner at Sandown Park.

6. Lady Abigail: Best 29.85 (25/2/16). Runner up in heat in 30.00 with a first split of 5.66. Oldest chaser in field. Equal most experienced chaser in field. Has raced over this circuit an amazing 58 times and won 14 races.

7. Outside Pass: Best 29.61. Ran this time in heat with a first split of 5.53. Has a PB first split of 5.51. Never missed a placing in five starts from this draw. Recent finalist in Group 1 Melbourne Cup.

8. Not Like Tommy: Best 30.60 (18/2/16). Ran a PB time without winning in heat running 29.88 with a first split of 5.65. Has only one win from 13 starts over this trip, but has recorded wins over 600m. Has never won in seven starts from this draw.

9. Lauryn’s Best: First emergency. Best 29.94 (19/5/16). Runner up in heat in tome of 30.23. First split of 5.53. Better suited to an inside draw with four of 16 career wins from Boxes 1-3.

10. El Chad: Second emergency. Best 29.96 (21/1/16). Runner up in heat in time of 30.44 with a first split of 5.70. Been in the money in 21 of 45 starts over this trip. Has won from all boxes except Box 7.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Outside Pass for 3 units > $2.60

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Whata Nice Size for 1 unit > $11

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Zabdon Ferrari for 1  unit< $8.00

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