How to Bet on the BSP Index?

Posted: August 18, 2016
BSP Index

Betfair punters are able to diversify their betting with the Betfair Starting Price Index. Instead of simply Backing & Laying runners in a race, traders can Back & Lay on the BSP Index Market allowing them to take a position on the aggregate BSP value of all winners.

What is a ‘Betfair Starting Price Index’?

A BSP Index is the aggregate value of the BSP (Betfair Starting Price) of all winners over a pre-determined number of races. For example, the BSP Index at a 9 Race Card at Flemington would be the combined number of all 9 BSP winner prices after the end of the last race.

 

Favs (Punters) or Roughies (Bookies)

Based on basic bookmaking and betting principles. A day at the races either favours ‘punters’ or ‘bookies’ depending on the prices of winners for the day. It’s often said that if favourites win the majority of races then punters have had a big day and likewise if it’s a day of upset results for the bookies. With the BSP Index, you can side with the majority of favourites with 1 single bet.

It’s not an exact science as roughies can salute, but if you think the average price of winners for the day will be low, it’s an easy way to bet. Alternatively, if you want to lay or be against the shorties for the day, in one simple bet you can effectively lay all the short priced runners by backing the over.

 

Trading Advantages

Fancy the favourites in the first two race or believe a short priced runner will salute? Having a view on how a race day will pan out can provide a range of investment options on the BSP Index. If you expect the card to be favoured by short priced runners early & outside chances late, a simple Back-to-Lay strategy on the Unders can be a quality trade opportunity.

If short priced winners salute early, the Under price on the BSP Index will shorten, providing a chance for your initial Back bet. If outside chances go on to win throughout the card, the Under price will drift out, allowing you to Lay your way to a profitable trade.

 

Utilising Rated Prices

Professional punters use ratings, buy ratings, price up their own markets either manually or use an automated system they have created based on multiple variables. They use these ratings to assess a horses probability of winning a race. Once a rated price is matched up to a market price the punter can then make an assessment on that runner to identify value in backing that runner or value in laying that runner to lose.

To formulate the BSP Index the Data Science Team use the Betfair market price combined with an average of the corporate fixed prices and then remove the bookmaker overound (vigorish) across the entire race card. Once this has been complete they run 1000’s of simulations to create a median total of where the BSP Index for the days racing will end.

Professor Stephen Clarke from the Swinburne University has created the mathematic formulas behind the BSP Index. With his assistance the team at Betfair have created an excel calculator so you can create your own BSP Index based on your own rated prices using the same formulas as we do.

 

The Betfair BSP Calculator & Deep Calc of Over/Under Line

Race Speed Profiles  BSP Index Calculator

 

Although it may look complex you can calculate your own BSP Index forecast in a few simple steps

STEP 1 Enter Rated Prices
STEP 2 Click Calculate k-value
STEP 3 Click Calculate
STEP 4 Enter BSP Price
STEP 5 Enter Your Opening Price
STEP 6 Click Pre-Race
STEP 7 Enter Race 1-10 Results

**At any time you can update the odds, but need to do STEP 2 and STEP 3 after to have the updated values.

IMPORTANT: Your excel sheet needs to have ‘Solver’ Add in enabled. If your excel setting do not have this data setting enabled please follow this help link. Some users may incur issues if using Microsoft Excel versions dated 2010 & earlier.

Disclaimer: This calculator is provided as a tool which may be used by customers. No warranties are given in relation to the calculator, and Betfair will not be liable for any loss suffered stemming from its use.

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