Bendigo, Saturday 19th March 2016: The Betfair Insider – Bendigo Guineas

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 18th – Max 19c. Morning Rain.

Saturday 19th – Max 20c. Partly Cloudy 10% chain of rain.

 

R8 Bendigo Guineas Listed 1400m

Speed Map

Bendigo Guineas

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 4 winners have been colts or geldings
  • 0 of past 4 winners have been SP favourites
  • 3 of past 4 winners have won from barrier 9 or wider
  • 4 of past 4 winners have carried 56kg

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good, Rail True

1st Sentinum – SP $21 56kg BR 13 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 9th Zedative G3 1200m Caulfield

2nd Éclair Choice – SP $9 57kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 2nd 3YO Hcp 40k 1200m Morphettville

3rd Java – SP $4 fav 58kg BR 11 – 6th up, 5 week freshen, 4th C F Orr G1 1400m Caulfield

Good, Rail True

 1st Written Up – SP $12 56kg BR 4 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 3rd Vobis Gold Eldorado 70k 1300m Wangaratta

2nd Gracious Prospect – SP $31 57kg BR 14 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 6th 0-78 35k 1400m Sandown Hillside

3rd Mahican – SP $6 56kg BR 10 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 1st Showcase 0-64 30k 1400m Bendigo

Good, Rail True

1st Bradman – SP $51 56kg BR 15 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st 0-68 17k 1400m Ballarat

2nd Ninth Legion – SP $5 56kg 13 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st BM 82 35k 1400m Sandown Hillside

3rd Force Command – SP9 $ 56kg BR 14 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 9th Australian Guineas G1 1600m Flemington

Festina Lente – SP $11 56kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 4 week freshen, 1st 0-68 12k 1212m Geelong 

Major Players 

1. Odyssey Moon: No surprise to see him return to his best form at his first start with Robert Smerdon in the G3 Zedative three weeks ago. He worked hard three deep at stages and has drawn wide again here. I suspect he gets cover from Barrier 10 this time with speed drawn outside him. Has a very strong profile for the race despite carrying the top weight.

2. Tivaci: Big run last start recording fast sectionals between the 1200-400m mark of the Australian Guineas. He was entitled to knock up his final 400m so expect a more conservative ride this time. Interesting that Mike Moroney has dropped him back in distance and has made a host of gear changes. If he fails here he’s a walk up start for a geld and look for him fresh next campaign.

3. El Greco: Another coming through the Zedative Stakes but thought his run was nothing like Odyssey Moon’s. Needs to improve sharply but has drawn well and brings the right form line.

5. Red Alto: Boasts a second placing to Tarzino last spring over 1400m on a heavy track when he started a $2.20 favourite. Yet to break his maiden status but the stable has obviously had a good opinion of him tackling some tough races in the spring. Has the Bit lifter applied for the first time, rain is a big plus and no doubt the stable have targeted this race. At 40/1 he could be the knockout runner off a soft draw.

6. Palace Tycoon: Great effort first up but lacked the turn of foot to win at 1400m. This horse has his fair share of ability but I’d prefer him third or fourth up over a longer trip.

7. Call Me Curtis: Front runner that will give a good sight in front. His data from recent performances in Adelaide indicate he’s not far from the mark in this grade. The big question mark is 1400m so his last 100m will be his biggest challenge.

8. Amadeus: Leader. Who has impressed on both occasions but faces a steep class rise here. Looks well found in early markets but stable is flying.

10. Invincible Knight:  Like Red Alto this runner looks set for the event coming off stronger races in spring and off a geld. Will get back and run on but may be better suited out to a mile.

12. Silent Sedition: Broke her maiden status with ease at Cranbourne last start by four lengths. There’s no doubt she has an electric turn of foot but her race pattern will continue to bring her undone unless they can get her to settle in a more forward position in running. For that reason alone I’m against her at $4.00 and can see her again being a hard luck story back up in grade.

13. Let Her Rip: Expecting Darren Gauci to roll forward on this filly to avoid the hard luck story she experienced first up in Australia. Two starts back she finished only 3.2 lengths behind Risque in the 1000 Guineas at Riccarton over 1600m which gives us a good indication of her class. Definite winning chance who will have taken huge benefit from her first up run. Improver but looks a bit short in early markets.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Silent Sedition – To lose 10 units at $5 or less

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider