Ballarat: Thursday 12th October 2017 – The Hotham

Posted: October 11, 2017

Current Track Rating: Good 4 – Soft 5

Rail: +12m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Wednesday – Max 25, 6-15mm Rain

Thursday – Max 19, 0.4mm Rain

 

R5 The Hotham 50k Maiden 3yo+

Speed Map

Major Players 

2. Briconi: On the quick back up could suit and gets a nice jockey change with Patrick Moloney on board. Surprised he’s come up 30/1 in early betting given how wide he tracked last time in the 1200m maiden. Best roughie.

3. Lechter: Small concern buried the fence in a race where leaders may fall in its lap. Ran on well at Tatura for a horse coming into a weak maiden like this.

4. Positive: Raced in the same day over the same distance as Lechter in faster time and boxed on OK. Slightly better position on the map drawn off the fence. Looks over odds at 20/1.

6. Sergeant Sam: Can push across from a wide alley and be in this along way for Noel Callow who can get the best out them. Concern is the 1200m but wasn’t disgraced back at Sandown in February over 1300m. Last start failure biggest problem.

7. The Black Isle: Prior to the last start 11 length defeat on the Heavy 10 at Coleraine, its form looks OK for this. Bad position on the map but big chance if kept fresh.

12. Woohoo: Likely to fight out lead with Sathern. Form over 1000m OK, 1200m is a big concern but will whack away. $3.40 very short early and expecting a drift.

14e. Woodbine Miss: Backed early $9 to $6.50 when markets first opened. Best form might be over a mile but maps perfectly from Barrier 5 close to the speed. OK jockey, might start favourite If gains entry.

15e. My Giddy Aunt: Was deep in the market at Murray Bridge and since then has had a handful of gear changes for this. Stable are very good at setting up a horse and if they be more positive from Barrier 12 it could be hard to hold out late.

 

Betting Strategy

Overlays appear to be Briconi, Positive, Woodbine Miss and My Giddy Aunt.

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Woohoo

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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