Awapuni, Saturday 19 December 2015: The Betfair Insider

Betfair Insider

 

Awapuni, Saturday 19 December 2015

Track 

Dead 5

Rail True

Weather forecast – www.metservice.com

Friday 18th – Max 20, light showers

Saturday 19th – Max 22, partly cloudy

 

R6 Kamada Park Manawatu Challenge Stakes G2 1400m

Speed Map

Manawatu Challenge

 

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners had previous run in Captain Cook Stakes
  • 4 of past 5 winners SP <$5
  • 4 of past 5 winners were Male
  • 5 of past 5 winners were having at least 5th up

 

Previous Race Winners and Lead-Up Result

2014 – Steinbeck – SP $4.40 59kg BR8 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 7th G1 Captain Cook Stakes 1600m Trentham

2013 – I Do – SP $3.70 57kg BR2 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 7th G1 Captain Cook Stakes 1600m Trentham

2012 – Mufhasa – SP $5 59kg BR6 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 2nd G1 Captain Cook Stakes 1600m Trentham

2011 – Justanexcuse – SP $9.20 59kg BR4 – 10th up, 5 weeks, 1st Open Handicap 1400m Riccarton

2010 – Fritzy Boy – SP $2.60 59kg BR3 – 8th up, 2 wks, 10th G1 Captain Cook Stakes 1600m Trentham

Major players

1. Kawi Costly as a short price favourite last start in the Group 1 Captain Cook Stakes. History says he is going to be hard to beat in this race given his SP of $1.70 at his previous outing. He bungled the start and then settled back in the field in a slowly run mile (1:38.73) where those on speed and close to the fence dominated. A return to 1400m can be seen as a positive as the tempo of the race should suit, rather than a slowly run 1600m race where he has raced ungenerously. He has produced five wins and three seconds from nine starts at 1400m.

2. Tomorrowland Failed badly at Te Rapa last Saturday in the Listed J Swap Sprint over 1400m behind Natuzzi where there didn’t appear to be too many excuses. Looks outclassed against the likes of Kawi and Mighty Solomun at weight-for-age.

3. Mighty SolomunRaced a touch flat when stepping up in distance last start and appears better suited coming back to 1400m. Met Kawi two starts ago and was caught three wide for the entire journey and went down by less than half a length. He’s had three battles with Kawi in the past, winning one and the biggest margin between the pair has been 0.4 lengths. Should be in a lovely position to control the race from barrier two.

5. Hayley MareeFinished ahead of Kawi last start when a close fourth behind Julinsky Prince in the Group 1 Captain Cook Stakes. She was aided by a soft run in a slowly run race last start but still deserves respect at big odds. Her early price of $21 appears a big overlay given how well she fits the profile. I have her at least half that quote.

9. SaavoyaRaced without luck first-up in much easier BM85 at Hastings and should have won. She is a mare that will continue to improve as the races get longer but has had 41 days since her last start so should still be quite fresh. Her class is evident given she is a Group 2 winner of the Royal Stakes at 2000m, where she defeated Vavasour.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Mighty Solomun 4 units at $4 or better.

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Hayley Maree1 unit with $21+ available in early markets.

 

R7 Hotel Coachman Manawatu Cup Group 3 2300m

Speed Map

manawatu Cup

 

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 5 winners carried > 55kg to victory
  • 3 of past 5 winners had previous start in Manawatu Cup Prelude
  • 4 of past 5 winners won their previous start
  • 5 of past 5 winners SP < $10

 

Previous Race Winners and Lead-Up Result

2014 – Perfect Start – SP$6 54kg BR6 – 6th up, 1 week, 1st Manawatu Cup Prelude 2000m Manawatu

2013 – Military Move – SP$4.90 58kg BR4 –
3rd up, 5 weeks, 1st open handicap 2100m Manawatu

2012 – Ransomed – SP$3.30 53.5kg BR7 – 7th up, 1 wk, 1st Manawatu Cup Prelude 2000m Manawatu

2011 – Cassini – SP$9.80 55kg BR1 – 4th up, 3 weeks, 1st Listed Wanganui Cup 2040m Wanganui

2010 – Tullaroan  – SP$6.50 53kg BR9 – 5th up, 1 week, 3rd Manawatu Cup Prelude 2000m Manawatu

 

Major Players

1. Authentic PaddyJust edged out in the Group 1 weight-for-age Captain Cook Stakes at an unsuitable distance of 1600m last start. Stepping up to 2300m for the first time but recent efforts at 2100m have been extremely encouraging, including a strong third behind Vavasour and Farm Boy in the Group 3 Counties Cup at Avondale. He carried 59.5kg on that occasion against stronger opposition who were on the minimum of 53kg, therefore a rise to 61kg is reasonable.

2. Madonna MiaCould not have been more impressive last start winning the Listed Wanganui Cup 2100m three weeks ago. Rises 2kg on that victory as a result but form over a staying trip is very consistent so she must not be taken lightly. This track hasn’t been kind to this mare in her career with only two placings from nine starts.

5. King Kamada A strong stayer who carried 59kg last Saturday when fourth behind King Krovanh in the 2000m Awapuni Cup Prelude, traditionally a very strong lead up for this event. Should be suited to the extended distance of 2300m this week considering he placed a close second in the Group 1 3200m Auckland Cup earlier this year.

10. Salford Art English import who raced in Sydney with Chris Waller before crossing the Tasman this preparation. Recorded her first win on New Zealand soil last start when dropping back in grade to score a tough win in 2200m BM85 at Ellerslie. Proved she is capable at this level with a low weight given she finished at the tail of Authentic Paddy in the Group 3 Counties Cup and now meets him 1.5kg better.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Authentic Paddy 3 units at $7 or better.

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Salford Art 2 units at $6.50 or better.