Ascot, Saturday 5 December 2015: The Betfair Insider

Posted: December 4, 2015

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Ascot, Saturday 5 December 2015

Track – Good 4

Rail +6m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 4th – Max 25. Cloudy, 20% chance of shower in the evening.

Saturday 5th – Max 22, Cloudy 80% chance of showers in the morning and afternoon. 2-8mm.

 

R2 Sir Ernest Lee Steere Classic 3YO G3 1400m 

Speed Map

sir ernest lee steere classic

 

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners were 1st or 2nd in Placid Ark Stakes in their lead up
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been 2nd up
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been Colts or Geldings    

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead Up Result

2014 Rail Out 6, Good 3

1st – Liberty’s Gem – SP $4.00 56.5kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Placid Ark Listed 1200m Ascot

2nd – Outlaw Pete – SP $3.60 fav 56.5kg BR 2 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th WA Guineas G2 1600m Ascot

3rd – Hobart Jones – SP $5.00 56.5kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 6th Placid Ark Listed 1200m Ascot

 

2013 Rail Out 3, Good 3

1st – Petrol Power – SP $2.90 fav 56.5kg BR 7 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Placid Ark Listed 1200m Ascot

2nd – Shades Of Rio – SP $8.00 56.5kg BR 2 – 5th up, 1 week 2nd Westspeed Handicap 1500m Ascot

3rd – Moet Me – SP $21 56.5kg BR 9 – 8th up, 2 weeks 8th WA Guineas G2 1600m Ascot

 

2012 Rail Out 3, Good 3

1st – Hard Ball Get – SP $3.70 fav 56.5kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd Placid Ark Listed 1200m Ascot

2nd – Fuddle Dee Duddle – SP $7.00 54.5kg BR 5 – 7th up, 1 week 5th Kingston Town G1 1800m Ascot

3rd – Passion Cantata – SP $6.50 54.5kg BR 4 – 7th up, 2 weeks 1st 3Y HCP 1500m Ascot

 

2011 – Night War – SP $3.6 fav 54kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Placid Ark Listed 1200m Ascot

2010 – Playcidium Mint – SP $11 54kg BR 1 – 2nd up, 1 week 1st 3Y MDN-SW 1200m Ascot

 

 

Major Players

2. Pushin’ ShapesRun off his legs early in the Placid Ark Stakes before being held up for a run at the top of the straight. Found the line strongly once clear with second fastest last 200m in 11.68 seconds, indicating the step up to 1400m would be of benefit. Another positive is that he meets most of his rivals from the Placid Ark Stakes 1kg better at weights. He profiles like the winner, has drawn well and did start a short favourite in the G3 W.A Sires Produce Stakes at this track and distance last preparation.

3. Yoshi NoxiousSettled near last in the Placid Ark Stakes and clearly suited by strong tempo over the first 600m of the race in 33.89. Was able to gain an uninterrupted run to the line to run the eventual winner Let It Slip to a length. Looks an improving type given it is his first racing preparation and the rise in distance to 1400m appears to be beneficial.

4. Remember BerlinCharged forward from an inside barrier last start and raced 4.2 lengths above benchmark to the 600m of the Placid Ark Stakes. Stuck on quite well at the finish of the race considering how quick they went early. He is a horse that likes to bowl along and dominate from the front. Should be able to control the speed in this event and may give some cheek stepping up to 1400m for the first time.

5. Lite’n In My VeinsFirst starter from the astute Fred Kersley yard. Trialled nicely at Lark Hill on Monday in preparation for this race, closing off strongly over the concluding stages of the 950m heat in 56.63 seconds. Big ask for a horse to debut and win a G3 race completely against the profile of the race but one must respect Kersley’s ability to prepare feature race winners in Perth.

6. Let It Slip – Should start a short price favourite following an eye-catching victory in the Placid Ark Stakes at 1200m. The negatives, if there are any, is that she was suited by the strong early speed and then was able to sail down the middle of the track without interruption. Her closing speed was clearly superior to any of her rivals a fortnight ago, which suggests she should be hard to beat once again.

 

Betting Strategy

BACK – E/W – 2. Pushin’ Shapes – I’ve rated him $6

LAY – WIN – 3. Yoshi Noxious – I’ve rated him $8.

 

R8 Kingston Town Classic WFA G1 1800m

Speed Map

Kingstown Town Classic

Race Profile

  • 5 of past 5 winners Colts or Geldings
  • 2 of past 5 winners 3YOs
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 3 of past 5 winners have come through G1 Railway Stakes 1600m
  • 5 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 8 or closer
  • 5 of past 5 winners have been 2 weeks between runs

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead Up Result

2014 Rail Out 6, Good 3

1st – Moriarty – SP $4.60 fav 59kg BR 1 – 8th up, 2 weeks 3rd Railway Stakes G1 1600m Ascot

2nd – Disposition – SP $4.60 fav 52kg BR 13 – 6th up, 2 weeks 2nd WA Guineas G2 1600m Ascot

3rd – Elite Belle – SP $7 57kg BR 7 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Carbine Club Listed 1400m Ascot

 

2013 Rail Out 3, Good 3

1st – Ihtsahymn – SP $4.20 52kg BR 2 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st WA Guineas G2 1600m Ascot

2nd – Luckygray – SP $3 fav 59kg BR 7 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Railway Stakes G1 1600m Ascot

3rd – Rohan – SP $21 59kg BR 4 – 5th up, 2 weeks 8th Tattersall’s listed 2100m Ascot

 

2012 Rail Out 3, Good 3

1st – Luckygray – SP $2.25 fav 59kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Railway Stakes G1 1600m Ascot

2nd – Mr Moet – SP $13 59kg BR 1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st Railway Stakes G1 1600m Ascot

3rd – God Has Spoken – SP $26 59kg BR 3 – 4th up, 2 weeks 5th Railway Stakes G1 1600m Ascot

 

2011 – Playing God – SP $19 58.5kg BR 5 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 14th Railway Stakes G1 1600m Ascot

2010 – Playing God – SP $3.10 fav 52kg BR 8 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Aquanita Listed 1800m Ascot

 

Major Players:

2. Black Heart BartLast start fourth in G1 Railway Stakes after being trapped three wide with cover throughout. Exposed from the 600m he did well to run the eventual winner Good Project to 2.5 lengths. He’s drawn perfectly here in barrier three but he’s never won beyond 1400m which is a major concern. I can’t have him as a serious winning chance but no doubt he’ll have each way support given his popularity and positive draw.

4. Magic Artist – Is the class runner of the field who was desperately unlucky not to win the G1 Mackinnon Stakes 2000m in his first Australian start, beaten only a length. He followed that performance up with another credible fourth beaten 1.3 lengths to promising kiwi galloper Turn Me Loose. That race rated close to 17 lengths above benchmark standard so he only needs to hold that form to win here as the extra rise in distance will suit. I suspect Damien Oliver will push forward from barrier one making him hard to beat given the drop in class.

9. Balmont Girl – Had a good run in transit from an inside draw to run the third fastest last 600m in 33.72 to finish third in the G1 Railway stakes. She has the same barrier this time and her final 400m splits indicate to me that she may have needed the run after a 21 day break. She won the G3 WA Oaks last year at 2400m, so the rise in trip is no issue for her. Last year she ran 10th of 16 in this event after a horror run where she was trapped wide throughout, it’s also important to note that she pulled up lame. It’s easy to make a case for her at $21 as she looks to be close to be somewhere near her career best form.

10. Real Love – 2015 Perth Cup winner who will further suited out to 1800m. Thought her effort in the Railway Stakes was OK off a 21 day break and now she’s drawn closer this time in barrier seven. Meets Delicacy 0.5 kgs worse at the weights, but my biggest problem is how poorly she handled the bend last start. $8.50 in early markets looks rock bottom.

11. Delicacy – Class Mare who has been a run behind all preparation so expect her to strip much fitter with this her likely grand final. She was given no hope to win the Railway Stakes after being put back to last from her wide barrier draw. Delicacy recorded the fastest last 200m split of the Railway Stakes, home in 10.84 seconds. Despite another wide draw (barrier 16) I confident they will push forward to race midfield hoping for some cover. She’s undefeated in 6 starts at 1800m or further.

13. Man Booker – Winner of the G2 W.A Guineas last start which profiles well for this. He was exposed three wide from the 800m mark and worked into the race strongly 600m from home. I’m not completely convinced that 1800m is what he’s looking for, but with a softer run in transit he’s a big chance to be the first 3yo home. They only ran the W.A Guineas .2 seconds slower than the Railway stake, Man Booker ran his last 400m in 22.98, last 200 11.96 to finish 6 lengths above benchmark standard. He looks overpriced in early markets at $17 given how strongly he profiles for the race.

16. Perfect Reflection – Undefeated 3yo Filly with only four career starts to date. William Pike has elected to ride her over Delicacy which is a significant lead. Her last two wins have been soft cruising home 4.5 and 7 lengths above the benchmark standard. If she can replicate those figures at this level she’ll be in the finish. Against her is a wide barrier and no filly has won the race in recent history. Blackwood was only beaten 2.5 lengths by Man Booker in the W.A Guineas which helps us line up her form. I thought Blackwood ran extremely well against boys where few horses made up ground from well back in running. I expect her to drift from $4.20 in early markets but can’t rule her out as a winning chance.

Betting Strategy:

BACK – WIN – 4. Magic ArtistI’ve rated him $3

BACK – WIN – 13. Man Booker – I’ve rated him $10

LAY – E/W – 10. Real Love – I’ve rated her $17

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying,

The Betfair Insider

 

NB: Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au