Ascot, Saturday 19 December 2015: The Betfair Insider

Betfair Insider

 

Ascot, Saturday 19 December 2015

Track

Good 3

Rail true

Weather forecast – www.bom.gov.au

Friday 18th – Max 27, mostly sunny

Saturday 19th – Max 25, partly cloudy

 

R7 C.B Cox Stakes Group 2 WFA 2100m

Speed Map

CB Cox Stakes

 

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 5 winners was a 3YO
  • 1 of past 5 winners were Female
  • 3 of past 5 winners were SP favourite
  • 4 of past 5 winners had their previous run in Kingston Town Stakes
  • 3 of past 5 winners have run 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the Kingston Town Stakes

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead Up Result

2014 – Rail True, Good 3

1st – Elite Belle – SP $3 fav 57kg BR4 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 3rd Kingston Town Stakes G1 1800m Ascot
2nd – Red Blast – SP $14 59kg BR10 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 6th Queen’s Cup G3 2200m Ascot
3rd – Bass Strait – SP $5.50 59kg BR2 – 8th up, 2 weeks, 6th Kingston Town Stakes G1 1800m Ascot

2013 – Rail +6, Good 3

1st – Ihtsahymn – SP $3.60 fav 51kg BR2 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 1st Kingston Town Stakes G1 1800m Ascot
2nd – Kincaple – SP $21 59kg BR11 – 3rd up, 4 weeks, 13th Railway Stakes G1 1600m Ascot
3rd – Rohan – SP $8.50 59kg BR9 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 3rd Kingston Town Stakes G1 1800m Ascot

2012 – Rail True, Good 3

1st – Mr Moet – SP $2.60 fav 59kg BR13 3rd up, 2 weeks, 2nd Kingston Town Stakes G1 1800m Ascot
2nd – Chester Road – SP $7.50 59kg BR8 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 8th Kingston Town Stakes G1 1800m Ascot
3rd – Ranger – SP $8.50 59kg BR4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 12th Kingston Town Stakes G1 1800m Ascot

2011 – Rail True, Good 3

1st – God Has Spoken – SP $21 59kg BR7 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 13th Japan Racing Listed 2200m Ascot
2nd – Kincaple – SP $6 59kg BR5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 9th Kingston Town Stakes G1 1800m Ascot
3rd – Ranger – SP $1.80 59kg BR2 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 2nd Kingston Town Stakes G1 1800m Ascot

2010 – Rail True, Good 3

1st – Colour Correct – SP $4.60 59kg BR3 – 7th up, 2 wks, 4th Kingston Town Stks G1 1800m Ascot
2nd – Admiring – SP $31 57kg BR9 – 4th up, 1 week, 5th Starstruck Listed 1600m Ascot
3rd – Big Ted – SP $26 59kg BR10 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 2nd BM74+ 1800m Ascot

 

Major Players

2. Black Heart Bart Produced a below par performance in the Kingston Town Stakes and that could be largely attributed to the surface as it was the first time in his career he had raced on anything outside of Good. He finished ahead of Delicacy in the Railway Stakes when fourth behind Good Project over 1600m. He failed to stay as a three-year-old finishing 12th behind Ihtsahymn in the 2200m Melvista Stakes before tiring to finish 8th in Respondent’s 2400m WA Derby. It’s been an odd preparation for the horse as his record screams that he’s better suited to 1200-1400m distances.

9. Balmont Girl Another who failed to perform up to standard in the Kingstown Town Stakes and an easy excuse is the track condition. Her run prior in the Railway Stakes was terrific, finishing third behind Good Project. Her best performances are at 2000m or further and expect her to bounce back on a Good rated surface.

10. Real Love Raced in a forward position last start and performed well below her best on the heavy surface. Her previous effort in the Railway Stakes was encouraging, as she hit the line strongly to finish alongside her stablemate Delicacy. She won the Queen’s Cup (2200m), WA St Leger (2100m) and Perth Cup (2400m) last season so one can easily expect a return to form as she rises in distance and gets back to a dry surface.

11. Delicacy Narrowly defeated in the Kingston Town Stakes over 1800m by stablemate Perfect Reflection who looks one out of the Box. She handled the wet track better than most last start so it’s hard to see them turning the tables given how capable she is on a good rated surface. She won two Derby’s and two Oaks’ last campaign and has won all five starts at 2000m or further. Anything above $1.65 is good value in a very weak race.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – PLACE – Black Heart Bart – 6 units at $4 or less

Back on Betfair BACK – PLACE – Balmont Girl – 2 units at $2.50 or better

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Delicacy – 5 Units > $1.65