Ascot, Saturday 2 January 2016: The Betfair Insider

Posted: December 31, 2015 at 2:57 pm

Betfair Insider

Ascot, Saturday 2 January 2016

Track

Good

Rail true

Weather forecast – www.bom.gov.au

Friday 1st – Max 35, windy

Saturday 2nd – Max 37, medium chance of thunderstorms and showers

 

 Race 8 Perth Cup Group 2 2400m

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 5 winners was SP favourite
  • 5 of past 5 winners have carried 55.5kg or less
  • 0 of past 5 winners won CB Cox Stakes at previous start

Previous Race Winners and Lead-Up Result


2015 – Good 3, Rail true

1st – Real Love – SP$2.40 54kg BR4 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 1st Listed WA St Leger 2100m Ascot

2nd – Red Blast – SP$9 54kg BR7 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 2nd Group 2 CB Cox Stakes 2100m Ascot

3rd – Kirov Boy – SP$13 54kg BR11 – 5th up, 1 week, 1st open handicap 2200m Ascot

 

2014 – Good 3, Rail true

1st – Black Tycoon – SP$5 55.5kg BR5 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 4th Group 2 CB Cox Stakes 2100m Ascot

2nd – God Has Spoken – SP$61 55.5kg BR13 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 11th Group 2 CB Cox Stakes 2100m Ascot

3rd – Ask Me Nicely – SP$41 54kg BR9  – 14th up, 1 week, 4th BM78+ 1500m Ascot

 

2013 – Good 3, Rail out 3m

1st – Talent Show – SP$31 54kg BR2 – 8th up, 2 weeks, 4th Group 2 CB Cox Stakes 2100m Ascot

2nd – Mr Moet – SP$3.20 59kg BR8 – 4th up, 1st Group 2 CB Cox Stakes 2100m Ascot

3rd – Global Flirt – SP$11 53kg BR3 – 12th up, 2 weeks 4th BM80+ 2200m Ascot

 

2012 – Good 3, Rail true

1st – Western Jewel – SP$7 52kg BR14 – 8th up, 1 week, 1st BM80+ 2200m Ascot

2nd – God Has Spoken – SP$10 57kg BR12 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 1st Group 2 CB Cox Stakes 2100m Ascot

3rd – Senhor De Gama – SP$9 52kg BR4 – 9th up, 3 weeks, 2nd BM68+ 2200m Ascot

 

2011 – Good 3, Rail true

1st – Guest Wing –  SP$21 52kg BR8 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 2nd open handicap 2200m Ascot

2nd – Guyno – SP$8 54kg BR4 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 5th Group 2 CB Cox Stakes 2100m Ascot

3rd – Simply Adorable – SP$41 52kg BR14 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 7th open handicap 2200m Ascot

 

Major Players

  1. Delicacy Star mare of West Australian racing but she will need to go to another level if she can win with 59kg. Recent history says it is extremely difficult and William Pike’s decision to ride Neverland over this mare says a lot. Drawing barrier 1 is a positive as she won’t need to spend any petrol to obtain the prime position.
  1. Real Love Winner of this race last year and now meets Delicacy 3kg better for 2.75L defeat in the CB Cox Stakes last start. Will need luck from the draw and the market is reflecting that given she is now out to $10 and drifting.
  1. Bedamijo Easily accounted for Neverland last start on level weights in the Listed A.T.A Stakes 2200m and also drops to the minimum here of 54kg. Expect him to take up a forward position from barrier two.
  1. Neverland Disappointed as $1.80 favourite last start when second behind Bedamijo in the Listed A.T.A Stakes 2200m on December 23. She was very good prior in the Group 1 Kingston Town Classic and the decision by Pike to ride her at 54kg compared to her high profile stablemate Delicacy must be respected.
  1. Respondent Carried 59kg, 4kg more than Neverland, last start in the A.T.A Stakes and was winding up nicely at the finish from back in the field to finish fourth to Bedamijo. Ideally weighted here on the minimum and could be the surprise packet of Bob Peters’ runners.

 

Betting Strategy 

Back on BetfairBACK – WIN – Respondent for 2 units 

Back on BetfairBACK – PLACE – Respondent for 3 units

 

Recommended Article 

The Trial Spy: Rosehill January 2