AFL Round 23 Predictions: Data Scientists’ Predictive Model

Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the AFL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting AFL outcomes.

Predicted AFL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.

Round 23 AFL Predictions

Compare the Model’s predicted prices to the market to identify your value bets. 

Interestingly the early markets are siding with 8 of the 9 favourites for the final round of the Home & Away season. The model has assessed the Western Bulldogs as a $1.25 (80%) chance compared to the market price of $1.36 (73.5%). If Adelaide beat West Coast at home on Friday night, a Bulldogs win will equal a HGA for their first final. Fremantle are in the ‘box seat’ for the number two draft pick by finishing 17th so it’s hard to see Ross Lyon’s men getting up for this one.

All times below are EST.

Adelaide v West Coast

Friday August 26, 8:10pm – Adelaide Oval

Essendon v Carlton

Saturday August 27, 2:10pm – MCG

North Melbourne v GWS Giants

Saturday August 27, 7:25pm – Etihad Stadium

St Kilda v Brisbane

Sunday August 28, 1:10pm – Etihad Stadium

Fremantle v Western Bulldogs

Sunday August 28, 4:40pm – Domain Stadium

Geelong v Melbourne

Saturday August 27, 1:45pm – Simonds Stadium

Sydney v Richmond

Saturday August 27, 4:35pm – SCG

Gold Coast v Port Adelaide

Saturday August 27, 7:25pm – Metricon Stadium

Hawthorn v Collingwood

Sunday August 28, 3:20pm – MCG

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