Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the AFL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting AFL outcomes.
Predicted AFL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.
Round 23 AFL Predictions
Compare the Model’s predicted prices to the market to identify your value bets.
Interestingly the early markets are siding with 8 of the 9 favourites for the final round of the Home & Away season. The model has assessed the Western Bulldogs as a $1.25 (80%) chance compared to the market price of $1.36 (73.5%). If Adelaide beat West Coast at home on Friday night, a Bulldogs win will equal a HGA for their first final. Fremantle are in the ‘box seat’ for the number two draft pick by finishing 17th so it’s hard to see Ross Lyon’s men getting up for this one.
All times below are EST.
Adelaide v West Coast
Friday August 26, 8:10pm – Adelaide Oval
Essendon v Carlton
Saturday August 27, 2:10pm – MCG
North Melbourne v GWS Giants
Saturday August 27, 7:25pm – Etihad Stadium
St Kilda v Brisbane
Sunday August 28, 1:10pm – Etihad Stadium
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
Sunday August 28, 4:40pm – Domain Stadium
Geelong v Melbourne
Saturday August 27, 1:45pm – Simonds Stadium
Sydney v Richmond
Saturday August 27, 4:35pm – SCG
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide
Saturday August 27, 7:25pm – Metricon Stadium
Hawthorn v Collingwood
Sunday August 28, 3:20pm – MCG