Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the AFL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting AFL outcomes.
Predicted AFL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.
Data Scientist Comments
Our Round 22 predictions are identifying some interesting discrepancies this week. The market price needs to be considered as an indicator of a team’s probability as it may be influenced by factors the Model hasn’t considered such as teams (ins & outs) or team motivation (finals). Based on these factors we’ve focused on three investments in Round 22.
Hawthorn have drifted since the market opened & are now providing a small value edge in the Match Odds. We have no problems with taking the reigning premiers at $2.26. North Melbourne v Sydney is a near even contest for us. Factoring in the market’s view, we’ll be taking North at the line +19.5. With the Model on our side, we still have an edge with the line. Collingwood are our final major investment in Round 22. With no major team news & both sides playing for similar motivation, we’ll be taking the $1.33 on offer.
All times below are EST.
West Coast v Hawthorn
Friday August 19, 8:10pm – Domain Stadium
Richmond v St Kilda
Saturday August 20, 2:10pm – MCG
Collingwood v Gold Coast
Saturday August 20, 7:25pm – Etihad Stadium
Carlton v Melbourne
Sunday August 21, 1:10pm – MCG
Essendon v Western Bulldogs
Sunday August 21, 4:40pm – Etihad Stadium
North Melbourne v Sydney
Saturday August 20, 1:45pm – Blundstone Arena
GWS Giants v Fremantle
Saturday August 20, 4:35pm – Spotless Stadium
Port Adelaide v Adelaide
Saturday August 20, 7:40pm – Adelaide Oval
Brisbane v Geelong
Sunday August 21, 3:20pm – Gabba