AFL Round 22 Predictions: Data Scientists’ Predictive Model

Posted: August 17, 2016 at 12:04 pm
Betfair Data Scientists

Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the AFL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting AFL outcomes.

Predicted AFL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.

Data Scientist Comments

Our Round 22 predictions are identifying some interesting discrepancies this week. The market price needs to be considered as an indicator of a team’s probability as it may be influenced by factors the Model hasn’t considered such as teams (ins & outs) or team motivation (finals). Based on these factors we’ve focused on three investments in Round 22.

Hawthorn have drifted since the market opened & are now providing a small value edge in the Match Odds. We have no problems with taking the reigning premiers at $2.26. North Melbourne v Sydney is a near even contest for us. Factoring in the market’s view, we’ll be taking North at the line +19.5. With the Model on our side, we still have an edge with the line. Collingwood are our final major investment in Round 22. With no major team news & both sides playing for similar motivation, we’ll be taking the $1.33 on offer.

All times below are EST.

West Coast v Hawthorn

Friday August 19, 8:10pm – Domain Stadium

Richmond v St Kilda

Saturday August 20, 2:10pm – MCG

Collingwood v Gold Coast

Saturday August 20, 7:25pm – Etihad Stadium

Carlton v Melbourne

Sunday August 21, 1:10pm – MCG

Essendon v Western Bulldogs

Sunday August 21, 4:40pm – Etihad Stadium

North Melbourne v Sydney

Saturday August 20, 1:45pm – Blundstone Arena

GWS Giants v Fremantle

Saturday August 20, 4:35pm – Spotless Stadium

Port Adelaide v Adelaide

Saturday August 20, 7:40pm – Adelaide Oval

Brisbane v Geelong

Sunday August 21, 3:20pm – Gabba

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