AFL Round 21 Predictions: Data Scientists’ Predictive Model

Posted: August 10, 2016 at 11:44 am
Betfair Data Scientists

Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the AFL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting AFL outcomes.

Predicted AFL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.

Round 21 AFL Predictions

Compare the Model’s predicted prices to the market to identify your value bets. 

Port Adelaide rate an 82.6% chance of defeating Melbourne at the Adelaide oval on Saturday night making them ‘bet of the round’ according to the Data Scientists. The early market rates Port Adelaide a 67% chance of victory at $1.49 on the exchange. Melbourne could be over-valued as a result of their upset win against the ladder leaders Hawthorn.

Here’s a great article on assessing ‘Overall Form v Recent Form’. An advantage of using models over time is to allow statistics to overrule recency bias. That said a disadvantage when using models is that at certain times they can’t account for dramatic improvement or failure of a team or individual that is rapid. A great example of that is the change in performance of GWS Giants and Fremantle Dockers in AFL Season 2016.

All times below are EST.

Western Bulldogs v Collingwood

Friday August 12, 7:50pm – Etihad Stadium

Hawthorn v North Melbourne

Saturday August 13, 2:10pm – MCG

St Kilda v Sydney

Saturday August 13, 7:25pm – Etihad Stadium

Essendon v Gold Coast

Sunday August 14, 1:10pm – Etihad Stadium

Fremantle v Adelaide

Sunday August 14, 4:40pm – Domain Stadium

Brisbane v Carlton

Saturday August 13, 1:45pm – Gabba

GWS Giants v West Coast

Saturday August 13, 4:35pm – Spotless Stadium

Port Adelaide v Melbourne

Saturday August 13, 7:40pm – Adelaide Oval

Richmond v Geelong

Sunday August 14, 3:20pm – MCG

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