Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the AFL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting AFL outcomes.
Predicted AFL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.
Round 21 AFL Predictions
Compare the Model’s predicted prices to the market to identify your value bets.
Port Adelaide rate an 82.6% chance of defeating Melbourne at the Adelaide oval on Saturday night making them ‘bet of the round’ according to the Data Scientists. The early market rates Port Adelaide a 67% chance of victory at $1.49 on the exchange. Melbourne could be over-valued as a result of their upset win against the ladder leaders Hawthorn.
Here’s a great article on assessing ‘Overall Form v Recent Form’. An advantage of using models over time is to allow statistics to overrule recency bias. That said a disadvantage when using models is that at certain times they can’t account for dramatic improvement or failure of a team or individual that is rapid. A great example of that is the change in performance of GWS Giants and Fremantle Dockers in AFL Season 2016.
All times below are EST.
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood
Friday August 12, 7:50pm – Etihad Stadium
Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Saturday August 13, 2:10pm – MCG
St Kilda v Sydney
Saturday August 13, 7:25pm – Etihad Stadium
Essendon v Gold Coast
Sunday August 14, 1:10pm – Etihad Stadium
Fremantle v Adelaide
Sunday August 14, 4:40pm – Domain Stadium
Brisbane v Carlton
Saturday August 13, 1:45pm – Gabba
GWS Giants v West Coast
Saturday August 13, 4:35pm – Spotless Stadium
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
Saturday August 13, 7:40pm – Adelaide Oval
Richmond v Geelong
Sunday August 14, 3:20pm – MCG