AFL Round 20 Predictions: Data Scientists’ Predictive Model

Posted: August 3, 2016
Betfair Data Scientists

Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the AFL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting AFL outcomes.

Predicted AFL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.

Round 20 AFL Predictions

Compare the Model’s predicted prices to the market to identify your value bets. 

Collingwood meet the hapless Richmond outfit at the MCG on Friday night. The model has rated Collingwood one of the best bets of the round assessing their probability of winning at 75.7% ($1.32), compared to the early market expectation of 66.6% ($1.50). The Pies won their round two clash with the Tigers by 1 point. Richmond’s season rank in points scored and inside 50 statistics is close to the worst in the competition. It’s hard to see them winning here off the back of a scoring only 3 goals last week.

Carlton have played Hawthorn, Sydney and West Coast in the past three weeks and have shown genuine improvements statistically. They play St Kilda at the MCG on Sunday which is a neutral away venue. The Saints have been rated closer to a 53.1% ($1.88) chance of victory, compared to their market price of 63.2% ($1.58). The Data science team recommend a Carlton bet at the +10.5 pts handicap at close to even money.

All times below are EST.

Richmond v Collingwood

Friday August 5, 7:50pm – MCG

Melbourne v Hawthorn

Saturday August 6, 2:10pm – MCG

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne

Saturday August 6, 7:25pm – Etihad Stadium

Carlton v St Kilda

Sunday August 7, 1:15pm – MCG

Fremantle v West Coast

Sunday August 7, 4:40pm – Domain Stadium

Sydney v Port Adelaide

Saturday August 6, 1:45pm – SCG

Gold Coast v GWS Giants

Saturday August 6, 4:35pm – Metricon Stadium

Adelaide v Brisbane

Saturday August 6, 7:40pm – Adelaide Oval

Geelong v Essendon

Sunday August 7, 3:20pm – Etihad Stadium

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