AFL Round 19 Predictions: Data Scientists’ Predictive Model

Posted: July 27, 2016 at 2:29 pm
Betfair Data Scientists

Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the AFL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting AFL outcomes.

Predicted AFL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.

Data Scientists Comments 

North Melbourne kept their finals hopes alive last week after a 40 point victory at the expense of Collingwood in Round 18. The model has rated them ‘bet of the round’ against St Kilda in a neutral contest when taking HGA (Home Ground Advantage) into account. We rate North Melbourne a 72% ($1.37) chance of winning and the early market has them rated at $1.62 (61.7%). The Kangaroos can be taken at H2H or at the -9.5 with confidence.

Looking for other bets Port Adelaide have been rated slightly under the expected market price in their away match against the Brisbane Lions, as are the West Coast Eagles who face Collingwood away at the MCG.

All times below are EST.

Geelong v Western Bulldogs

Friday July 29, 7:50pm – Simonds Stadium

Hawthorn v Carlton

Saturday July 30, 2:40pm – Aurora Stadium

Brisbane v Port Adelaide

Saturday July 30, 7:25pm – Gabba

Melbourne v Gold Coast

Sunday July 31, 1:10pm – MCG

Adelaide v Essendon

Sunday July 31, 4:40pm – Adelaide Oval

GWS Giants v Richmond

Saturday July 30, 1:45pm – Manuka Stadium

Collingwood v West Coast

Saturday July 30, 4:35pm – MCG

North Melbourne v St Kilda

Saturday July 30, 7:20pm – Etihad Stadium

Fremantle v Sydney

Sunday July 31, 3:20pm – Domain Stadium

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