Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the AFL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting AFL outcomes.
Predicted AFL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.
Data Scientists Comments
North Melbourne kept their finals hopes alive last week after a 40 point victory at the expense of Collingwood in Round 18. The model has rated them ‘bet of the round’ against St Kilda in a neutral contest when taking HGA (Home Ground Advantage) into account. We rate North Melbourne a 72% ($1.37) chance of winning and the early market has them rated at $1.62 (61.7%). The Kangaroos can be taken at H2H or at the -9.5 with confidence.
Looking for other bets Port Adelaide have been rated slightly under the expected market price in their away match against the Brisbane Lions, as are the West Coast Eagles who face Collingwood away at the MCG.
All times below are EST.
Geelong v Western Bulldogs
Friday July 29, 7:50pm – Simonds Stadium
Hawthorn v Carlton
Saturday July 30, 2:40pm – Aurora Stadium
Brisbane v Port Adelaide
Saturday July 30, 7:25pm – Gabba
Melbourne v Gold Coast
Sunday July 31, 1:10pm – MCG
Adelaide v Essendon
Sunday July 31, 4:40pm – Adelaide Oval
GWS Giants v Richmond
Saturday July 30, 1:45pm – Manuka Stadium
Collingwood v West Coast
Saturday July 30, 4:35pm – MCG
North Melbourne v St Kilda
Saturday July 30, 7:20pm – Etihad Stadium
Fremantle v Sydney
Sunday July 31, 3:20pm – Domain Stadium