Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the AFL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting AFL outcomes.
Predicted AFL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.
Data Scientists Comments
Despite Gold Coast’s recent improvements, we believe the market is overrating their chances against Fremantle. We have Freo a slight outside chance – 48% probability ($2.07) on Saturday. They should be considered in the match odds or with the Line +9.5.
Western Bulldogs are our value opportunity of the round. We’re rating them as a $1.20 prospect & with an early Betfair market drift they provide plenty of value in the match odds.
After successfully outperforming the market on Port Adelaide last week, we believe they again need to be considered as a match odds or Line +9.5 investment based on the early market prices.
All times below are EST.
Collingwood v North Melbourne
Friday July 22, 7:50pm – Etihad Stadium
Gold Coast v Fremantle
Saturday July 23, 2:10pm – Metricon Stadium
Western Bulldogs v St Kilda
Saturday July 23, 7:25pm – Etihad Stadium
Essendon v Brisbane
Sunday July 24, 1:10pm – Etihad Stadium
Port Adelaide v GWS Giants
Sunday June 24, 4:40pm – Adelaide Oval
Sydney v Carlton
Saturday July 23, 1:45pm – SCG
West Coast v Melbourne
Saturday July 23, 4:35pm – Domain Stadium
Geelong v Adelaide
Saturday July 23, 7:25pm – Simonds Stadium
Hawthorn v Richmond
Sunday July 24, 3:20pm – MCG