AFL Round 18 Predictions: Data Scientists’ Predictive Model

Posted: July 21, 2016
Betfair Data Scientists

Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the AFL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting AFL outcomes.

Predicted AFL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.

Data Scientists Comments

Despite Gold Coast’s recent improvements, we believe the market is overrating their chances against Fremantle. We have Freo a slight outside chance – 48% probability ($2.07) on Saturday. They should be considered in the match odds or with the Line +9.5.

Western Bulldogs are our value opportunity of the round. We’re rating them as a $1.20 prospect & with an early Betfair market drift they provide plenty of value in the match odds.

After successfully outperforming the market on Port Adelaide last week, we believe they again need to be considered as a match odds or Line +9.5 investment based on the early market prices.

All times below are EST.

Collingwood v North Melbourne

Friday July 22, 7:50pm – Etihad Stadium

Gold Coast v Fremantle

Saturday July 23, 2:10pm – Metricon Stadium

Western Bulldogs v St Kilda

Saturday July 23, 7:25pm – Etihad Stadium

Essendon v Brisbane

Sunday July 24, 1:10pm – Etihad Stadium

Port Adelaide v GWS Giants

Sunday June 24, 4:40pm – Adelaide Oval

Sydney v Carlton

Saturday July 23, 1:45pm – SCG

West Coast v Melbourne

Saturday July 23, 4:35pm – Domain Stadium

Geelong v Adelaide

Saturday July 23, 7:25pm – Simonds Stadium

Hawthorn v Richmond

Sunday July 24, 3:20pm – MCG

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