AFL Insights: Round 5 2017

Posted: April 20, 2017

View The Data Scientists’ Round 5 AFL Prediction Model

 

Gold Coast Suns v Adelaide Crows

Saturday April 22, 4:35pm – Metricon Stadium

Match Odds

Adelaide are the highest scoring team in the AFL and have never lost to the Gold Coast Suns. In fact, they’ve covered the line for this game in all nine meetings, with 28 points being the lowest winning margin.

The discussion this week has been about containing Eddie Betts but the Suns also have to stop Taylor Walker. That task is made significantly harder with the injury to Suns co-captain, Steven May. There is rain forecast for Metricon on Saturday afternoon, but even that shouldn’t slow the Crows down.

Betting Strategy 

Back on Betfair BACK – Adelaide -27.5

 

St Kilda Saints v Geelong Cats

Sunday April 23, 3:20pm – Etihad Stadium

Match Odds

Geelong are our bogey side so far this year. We just don’t rate them collectively. However, if their results continue this week then we’ll have to re-evaluate that strategy. That being said, we tipped St Kilda last week and will continue to do so when they are outsiders at Etihad Stadium. No Victorian team loves the Dome as much as the Saints.

The recent history between these two teams couldn’t be closer with a 3 point St Kilda victory and a draw. That suggests the +15.5 line is a nice security option but we see this game as a launching pad for the St Kilda season and we’ll be laying the Cats for the win. The Saints will need to correct their goal kicking though. Averages of 12 goals and 17 behinds per game in 2017 is the opposite of Geelong’s 18 and 9 and hopefully that doesn’t influence this week’s result.

Betting Strategy 

Laying on Betfair LAY – Geelong

 

Richmond Tigers v Melbourne Demons

Monday April 24, 7:25pm – MCG

Match Odds

The Betfair model marks this game as a coin flip, which suggests Melbourne are undervalued by the market. We agree. Richmond might be undefeated but their wins have been against the two wooden spoon favourites, Brisbane and Carlton, Collingwood and West Coast in Melbourne.

Whilst the Demons have been underwhelming since Max Gawn’s injury, especially last week, they’ve won their last three matches against the Tigers. Also, if you examine the recent history between the sides you’ll see that Melbourne does an exceptional job at limiting Dustin Martin (18 and 24 disposals). We’re encouraged by Jesse Hogan’s return and think Melbourne need this win more than Richmond.

Betting Strategy 

Back on Betfair BACK – Melbourne

 

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