AFL Finals Week 2 Predictions: Data Scientists’ Predictive Model

Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the AFL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting AFL outcomes.

Predicted AFL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.

AFL Finals Week 2 Predictions

Compare the Model’s predicted prices to the market to identify your value bets. 

The Data Science model has identified Hawthorn as the big overlay for week two. Hawthorn rate a 78% ($1.28) chance to progress to the preliminary finals, whilst the early market is rating them a 61% ($1.63) chance of victory. Hawthorn could be taken H2H, Line or even present as a Back-To-Lay proposition based on this variance.

In the second final the model and the market are virtually identical. Sydney Swans have won four of their past five matches against the Adelaide Crows. These teams have only clashed once in 2016, that match was in Adelaide and the Crows prevailed by 10 points.

All times below are EST.

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

Friday September 16, 7:50pm – MCG

Sydney v Adelaide

Saturday September 17, 7:25pm – SCG

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