AFL Finals Week 1 Predictions: Data Scientists’ Predictive Model

Posted: September 7, 2016

Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the AFL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting AFL outcomes.

Predicted AFL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.

Finals Week 1 AFL Predictions

Compare the Model’s predicted prices to the market to identify your value bets. 

With little variance between the Model’s output and the early markets on the Exchange. We duplicated the output on the Geelong v Hawthorn match to award HGA to Hawthorn and then removed that also to produce a neutral venue output. As you can see the results are quite varied. With heavy rain and hail forecasted we expect this match to be another classic. We also split the model to include and exclude HGA for Sydney v GWS Giants as neither side genuinely calls ANZ stadium their home.

All times below are EST.

West Coast v Western Bulldogs

Thursday September 8, 8:10pm – Domain Stadium

Geelong v Hawthorn (Neutral Venue)

Friday September 9, 7:50pm – MCG

Geelong v Hawthorn (Hawks HGA)

Friday September 9, 7:50pm – MCG

Adelaide v North Melbourne 

Saturday September 10, 7:40pm – Adelaide Oval

Sydney v GWS Giants (Neutral Venue) 

Saturday September 10, 3:20pm – ANZ Stadium

Sydney v GWS Giants (Swans HGA)

Saturday September 10, 3:20pm – ANZ Stadium

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