AFL Betting: Semi Finals Predictive Model

 

 

Semi Finals Predictions 

The Betfair Data Scientists have been digging into the statistics and built a prediction model across the finals period.

They have been through a rigid process to produce the outputs which has involved data collection, data processing and then creating the model itself with comprehensive back testing and refinements.

The Data Scientists have re-run the predictive model and similar to several games last week are predicting the favourites at a shorter price than the market weighted average price.


Prediction Model vs Market 

Hawthorn Adelaide
Model Price  $1.26  $4.85
Market Price $1.30  $4.20

 

Sydney North Melbourne
Model Price  $1.41  $3.46
Market Price  $1.59  $2.68

Hawthorn were offering a small advantage at the win odds but have since shortened

  •  Model has Hawthorn a 79.36% probability vs the Market 80.97% probability after 5% commission.

Sydney are the largest value advantage across the Semi Finals

  • Model has Sydney a 70.92% probability vs the Market 66.20% probability after 5% commission.
  • 4.72% value advantage in backing the Swans.

 

Want to know more? Find out more on how was this model was created.

 

The largest factor coming from the analysis points to the home ground advantages for both Hawthorn & Sydney. Both teams have won four out of their last five at home and maintain solid average winning margins at home throughout the season. The graph below displays the average scores margin vs opponents for the home and away teams this weekend.


Finals Week One Summary

The Data Scientist team’s week one stand out selection Fremantle was a successful prediction. The Model’s evaluation had Fremantle a $1.24 chance (80% probability) and although this result was successful the game itself was quite close with Sydney kicking themselves out of the game (7 goals 18 behinds).

In the end a close margin Fremantle’s way suggests that the predicted probability may have been a little too skewed Fremantle’s way. Read below for a summary of the weighted average prices compared to the Model’s predicted price.

 

West Coast Hawthorn
Weighted Ave Price $2.39  $1.71
Model Price  $2.02  $1.98
Fremantle Sydney
Weighted Ave Price $1.37  $3.62
Model Price  $1.24  $5.15
Adelaide Western Bulldogs
Weighted Ave Price $2.00  $1.99
Model Price  $1.70  $2.42
Richmond North Melbourne
Weighted Ave Price $1.66  $2.51
Model Price  $1.69  $2.44