AFL Betting: Preliminary Finals Predictive Model

Posted: September 25, 2015

 

 

Preliminary Finals Predictions 

The Betfair Data Scientists have been digging into the statistics and have built a prediction model across the finals period.

Curious as to how this Model was created? Find out more on how was this model was built.

The Data Scientists have re-run the predictive model this week and have some interesting results when compared to the market. North Melbourne are much shorter than the market suggests and look a good bet at the line. Hawthorn are also providing value but at the win odds.


Prediction Model vs Market 

Fremantle Hawthorn
Model Price  $2.97  $1.50
Market Price $2.42  $1.69

Hawthorn 

–  Model has Hawthorn a 66.67% probability (1/$1.50)  vs

–  Market 62.50% probability (1/$1.60) after 5% commission

West Coast North Melbourne
Model Price  $1.78  $2.28
Market Price  $1.23  $5.20

North Melbourne 

–  Model has North a 43.85% probability (1/$2.28) vs

–  Market 20.24% probability (1/$4.94) after 5% commission

Betting Activity

Hawthorn are providing a small advantage (approx 4%) at the win odds and are worth a wager – Back Hawthorn to win.

There’s a considerable discrepancy between the market and predicted probabilities for the West Coast v North Melbourne game. This variation is very interesting as these sort of discrepancies are far more common early within the season rather than at this point of the year. As the season progresses it can often be difficult to find value in a market which can become quite efficient.

The best selection here is take North Melbourne at the line +28.5.

 

Statistics to note

Hawthorn performs better against finals opponents than Fremantle, and similarly West Coast performs better than North Melbourne. North also tends to struggle against top 8 opposition away from home where as Hawthorn is the opposite, they perform considerably well home or away.

AFLFinalsMargin-Graph-1