AFL Betting: Grand Final Predictions

 

2015 AFL GRAND FINAL 

Hawthorn v West Coast

Match Odds Market

 

Hawthorn: 50.50% probability at $1.98

West Coast: 49.50% probability at $2.02

The output can barely split Hawthorn and West Coast this weekend. Looking into the current market prices Hawthorn is just above a 60% probability for the flag at $1.63 after being backed as low as $1.61 and as high as $1.69. At first glance West Coast offer good value at the Match Odds but lets look a little closer before making a selection on betting activity for the big one.

Let’s take a look into the Model’s Finals Performance to date, Interesting Statistics to consider and Betting Activity.

Recommended Bet Performance

Each week we have been reviewing the Model’s predictive probabilities, looking into any stand out statistics and reviewing the Exchange market for any value opportunities. To date, the Model has produced 3/4 winning recommended selections during the finals series. Below is a summary of these recommended selections.

Preliminary Finals

West Coast vs North Melbourne – Back North Melbourne +28.5 

Fremantle vs Hawthorn – Back Hawthorn to Win

Semi Finals

Sydney vs North Melbourne – Back Sydney to Win 

Week One Finals

Fremantle vs Sydney – Back Fremantle to Win

Statistics to Consider

These two sides have met twice at Domain Stadium this season. In round 19 Hawthorn 13.10 (88) defeated West Coast 11.8 (74) and in week one of the finals West Coast 14.12 (96) evened the ledger defeating Hawthorn 9.10 (64). Team performance at the MCG is a big factor and West Coast have only managed to visit the ground on one occasion this year. The last time these two sides met at the MCG was back in 2012.

Hawthorn have a solid average margin at the MCG compared to West Coast who have improved in this area considerably over the last few years.

AFLMCG-Graph-1

  • Looking into the home and away comparisons between the two sides, Hawthorn once again have a consistent average playing at home compared to West Coast who have improved their away record over the period.

AFLHomeAway-Graph-1

  • These two sides are the best in the business in terms of scoring ability with Hawthorn ranked 1st in the competition and West Coast 2nd.
  • When looking at the teams scoring ability throughout four quarters we note that both teams have scored more heavily in the 3rd and 4th quarters.
  • West Coast have performed considerably better in the first half against Hawthorn during the year.

AFLHawWCStats-Graph-1

  • Against each other and throughout the season as a whole – West Coast outperform Hawthorn in first quarters.

Betting Activity

Looking purely at the Model’s output, West Coast offer considerable value at the win odds. We know the Model can only take certain variables into its analysis and this needs to be taken into consideration.

Variables that are not considered:

  • Grand Final experience
  • Weather
  • Player fatigue
  • Players ins & outs

West Coast’s lack of finals and MCG experience are factors that need to be measured when making a call on any betting activity. Hawthorn have 24 current listed players with Grand Final experience and 15 with three or more compared to West Coast with four players. Taking the value outlined by the Model and what we know about outside factors – West Coast with the Line +9.5 offers the an opportunity.

Back West Coast at the Line +9.5

Knowing West Coast have outperformed Hawthorn in first quarters this year and also taking the Model’s value for West Coast into consideration there are some opportunities available within the market. Based on information available – West Coast will perform better than the market suggests, particularly in the first quarter. This represents an opportunity as the market will adjust accordingly – Backing West Coast now in the Match Odds and then Laying back when they shorten will enable a good trade out opportunity. The Quarter by Quarter Results also offers value with a Lay bet.

Lay Haw/Haw/Haw/Haw in the Quarter by Quarter Results

Back to Lay West Coast in the Match Odds