AFL Betting: Finals Week One Predictive Model

Posted: September 11, 2015

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Betfair Data Scientists – Predictive AFL Model

In the lead up to the AFL Finals, the Betfair Data Scientists have mined statistics to build a prediction model across the four week period. The output of this Model comes in the form of odds that best suit the probability of a team winning based on the Model.

They have been through a rigid process to produce the outputs which has involved data collection, data processing and then creating the model itself with comprehensive back testing and refinements.

Over 150 variables have been taken into account using the past 5 seasons of data. Some of the more important and unique variables used were:

  • Player stats
  • Overall Team stats
  • Recent H2H Matchups
  • Fantasy league scores
  • Ladder position
  • Recent finals performances
  • Average points margin against top 8
  • Middle of season win rate
  • Performance per quarter
  • Betfair weighted average price
  • Betfair last matched price
  • Betfair tournament odds at the end of the H & A season

The prediction accuracy of the best model was 72.3% based on the results of the past 4 years of AFL Finals.
Below is the forecasted prices for week 1.


West Coast Eagles $2.02

Hawthorn $1.98

@ Domain Stadium

MARKET


Fremantle $1.24

Sydney $5.15

@ Domain Stadium

MARKET


Western Bulldogs $2.42

Adelaide $1.7

@ MCG

MARKET


Richmond $1.69

North Melbourne $2.44

@ MCG

MARKET


Fremantle is the standout bet according to our data scientist team with a 9.21% variance against current exchange prices.