Addington, Friday 1st April 2016: The Harness Pro – NZ Breeders Stakes

Posted: April 1, 2016 at 8:51 am

Harness Pro

Track: Addington

Track Surface: All Weather

There IS a sprint lane.

 

R7 Group 1 NZ Breeders Stakes – 2600m Mobile Start

Past Winners

2015 – Venus Serena

2014 – Adore Me

2013 – Bettor Cover Lover

2012 – Carabella

2011 – De Lovely

Speed Map

Go forward horses here look like being Valor Lustre, Luisanabelle Midfrew and Rocker Band which will have to go forward from its extreme outside draw. Linda Lovegrace could make a mid-race move from its bad draw.

Major Players

1. Valor Lustre: Big odds here but helped by the pole position draw here. Won four starts ago beating New Years Jay at Ashburton after leading. Since has been midfield in good races including behind Mighty Flying Mac and Field Marshall. Not the roughest with a trail.

5. Luisanabelle Midfrew: Took control of the race last week with 600m to go and never looked in doubt winning nearly four lengths untouched. Did win the NZ Yearling Sales 3yo Fillies Final three starts ago after leading early and taking a trail zooming up the sprint lane. That could be the scenario here again.

7. New Years Jay: Smart mare but hasn’t won for 10 starts – that being in February 2015. Ran sixth in this race last year behind Venus Serena as second favourite and followed that with a midfield run behind Christen Me. Has had a freshen up since a second after doing work behind Valor Lustre. Will need things to go its way to figure.

9. Rocker Band: Has very good gate speed and could look to zoom to the early lead here. Did just that at Winton last time when a convincing winner beating Motu Moonbeam following a good second in a Listed race (Northern Mares Classic) at Auckland. Four starts ago was third in the Group 2 Mares Championship here behind outside Tangos Delight. Will be in it for a long way but I doubt she has the class to win.

12. Fight For Glory: The class horse of the field – hasn’t drawn too badly being three from the second row. Stablemate to the 14 from the conquering All Stars Purdon/Rasmussen stable. Has won 14 from 31 starts including the Queen Of Hearts (Group 1) in December 2015. Back from an overseas campaign in Australia where she won 2/4 – the latest start was a good sixth in the Group 1 Ladyship Mile. Whatever beats her should probably win.

14. Linda Lovegrace: Mark Purdon elects to drive Linda who has won 14 races like her stablemate and also back from a stint in Australia. At one stage won five in a row when racing through its grades at the likes of Ballarat and Melton but only reached M0 grade. Ran fifth, third and fourth in consecutive Group 1’s here in May 2015 so definitely has the ability however I think she is a better frontrunner.

15. Democrat Party: Her third in open company in the Southland Cup behind Mossdale Conner last start was excellent so drops back in grade here. Is yet to notch up a big one but her best run was probably a sixth in May 2015 behind The Orange Agent (Fight For Glory second and Linda Lovegrace fourth) in the Group 1 Diamond.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Luisanabelle Midfrew >$5.00 for 1 unit

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Fight For Glory >$2.50 for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Valor Lustre >$4.50 for 1 unit

Laying on Betfair LAY (PLACE) Linda Lovegrace <$2.00 for 2 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (PLACE) Rocker Band <$3.50 for 1.50 units