Racing tips and betting strategy for Saturday’s Group 1 Newmarket Handicap are online now. Preview, speed map, race analysis, racing tips & betting strategy for the Newmarket Handicap at Flemington with Dean Evans of Winning Edge Investments.
Racing tips and full in-depth preview and analysis of each race and betting strategy are online now! Only on the Betfair Hub.
Track: Flemington | Distance: 1200m | Condition: HCP | Rail Position: +5m | Condition: Good 4 | Prizemoney: $1,500,000
No rain forecast for Thursday to Saturday, so the track should race perfectly.
Quality G1 sprint won in recent years by the likes of Zoutori, Bivouac, Sunlight, Redkirk Warrior (2), Brazen Beau, Lankan Rupee & Hay List.
Historical Profiling (last 10 years):
- 1st up (1), 2nd up (6), 3rd up (3)
- 14-day break (4), 21-day break (5), 119-day break (1)
- Settled 1st-4th (8), Settled 9th-11th (2)
- 3yo (4 from 29 starters), 4yo (1 from 45), 5yo (2 from 39), 6yo (2 from 23), 7yo (1 from 6)
- Colt (3 from 17), Filly (1 from 8), Gelding (6 from 73), Entire (0 from 24), Mare (0 from 23)
- SP Under $3.80 to $7 (5), $13-$21 (4), $31 (1)
- Weight 50.5kg (2), 52-52.5kg (3), 54kg (1), 56.5-58.5kg (4)
- Beaten Margin Last Start under 3L (9)
- Career Starts 9-16 (7), 21-25 (3)
- Never raced at Flemington (1 from 14 starters)
- Last Start Racetrack Melbourne Sat (10)
- Last Start Race Class G1 (9), G3 (1)
SPEED MAP RACING TIPS
Fast speed expected but interestingly this is a race dominated by those on pace.
Home Affairs, Snapdancer, The Astrologist, Finance Tycoon, Oxley Road and Lost And Running provide the early pace.
The rest of the field tend to drop back.
NEWMARKET HANDICAP | KEY RUNNERS + RACING TIPS
1. Masked Crusader – G1 winning sprinter with 2nds in the Everest & TJ Smith to Nature Strip. Was ok first up in first run down the straight over an unsuitable 1000m in the Lightning beaten 3.5L. Can absolutely win this.
2. Home Affairs – 2 from 2 down the straight with impressive wins in the G1 Coolmore then the G1 Lightning. Topline sprinter who profiles well but must carry a big weight here.
3. Lost And Running – Up & Coming sprinter who will be top of the tree in the future. Was an impressive winner first up and rates as a strong chance here.
4. Zoutori – Won this race last year due to a biased inside track. Can forgive first up run when back and wide on a heavily rails/on-pace biased Caulfield track in the Oakleight Plate. Chance if the inside is biased down the straight again this year.
6. Levante – Top quality dual G1 winning NZ mare having first start in Australia. Always felt from early on in NZ that she would make the grade at G1 level over here. Not sure if this is the right race for her, perhaps the Coolmore Classic in Sydney would have been more suitable. But she can certainly measure up to these on class.
7. Halvorsen – Loves the straight track here, and the stable know how to win this race with a horse at big odds with a similar profile in The Quarterback. Good roughie.
10. Quantico – Very talented gelding who won impressively down the straight in Listed grade last start. First up here which is a tough ask.
14. Swats That – Ran a good 4th first up in the Lightning and gets a 4kg weight drop here and a 4.5kg weight turnaround on the winner Home Affairs. Ran 2nd to Nature Strip in the VRC Sprint the start before. Rates well.
15. The Astrologist – On pacer and races well down the straight. Roughie.
16. Artorius – 3rd in the G1 Coolmore. Ran the quickest last 600m of the day first up despite only running 6th at Caulfield. Danger.
Final track conditions and how the straight is playing from a bias perspective (rail or grandstand side) will be critical. Betting around Home Affairs given the weight impost for a 3yo, but it is a risk as he does profile well otherwise.
TOP 5 SELECTIONS
1 – Masked Crusader
3 – Lost And Running
14 – Swats That
6 – Levante
16 – Artorius
NEWMARKET HANDICAP | BETTING STRATEGY
BACK (WIN) — Masked Crusader for 1 unit
BACK (WIN) — Lost And Running for 1 unit
BACK (WIN) — Swats That for 0.35 units
BACK (WIN) — Levante for 0.35 units
BACK (WIN) — Artorius for 0.3 units
Units Outlayed: 244.9
Units Returned: 276.3
Profit On Turnover: 12.8%