EXPERT NZ RACING TIPS: TRENTHAM

New Zealand Racing Tips on the Betfair Hub below

Find Trentham (NZ) racing tips, analysis and key runners as part of the Betfair Hub’s specialty New Zealand thoroughbred racing content, from one of NZ’s leading form analysts Jason Tan. Trentham NZ racing tips with full in-depth preview and analysis of each race and betting strategy are online now!

Click here to check out the markets at Trentham for New Zealand Oaks Day.


TRENTHAM (NZ) RACING TIPS | 19 MARCH 2022

Rail: True | Track Condition: Dead 5

Track Conditions: The weather leading into Saturday is likely to contain some rain. The track is also being watered, which means the turf will likely be a DEAD 5 and possibly a DEAD 4 at the start of the race meeting. Bottom line is, it’s unlikely to be GOOD.

Trentham is a spacious left-handed turf track that unfortunately has been blighted by unpredictable bias that has been seemingly caused by poor weather and arguably how the track has been managed.

BEST BACK OF THE DAY: Race 6 | #8 IMPERATRIZ WIN (4 units)

The horse to beat is IMPERATRIZ and her best form level should have her being too classy for some well-performed geldings. IMPERATRIZ is drawn to sit just behind the main speed and her turn-of-foot is the best in the race.

BEST LAY (WIN) OF THE DAY: Race 7 | #7 CAN I GET AN AMEN (to lose 4 units)

There’s not much between TOP BRASS, BURGUNDY ROSE, OKAY PAL and CAVALLO VELOCE in a race I’m going to take on CAN I GET AN AMEN.


Race 1 | NZ | Key Runners & Expert Tips

4. SLIPPER ISLAND (Rated Price $2.75)
9. PERFECTLY SUITED (RP $3.50)
8. DISS IS DRAMATIC (RP $6.00)
3. TRAV (RP $10.00)

Betting Strategy

This race for two-year-old horses brings together a couple of interesting formlines. SLIPPER ISLAND debuted well at Ellerslie, showing good speed before being narrowly beaten by subsequent G1 Sistema Stakes winner Lickety Split. That pair drew more than 5-lengths clear of their opposition and the event rated okay.

PERFECTLY SUITED was an excellent debut winner at Whanganui and that performance suggested she’s one of the horses to beat in this. DISS IS DRAMATIC returns from a Karaka Million failure, but her debut was very good. If she can deliver that rating back left-handed then she can win.

Not much advantage and always a question with where juveniles are at, so will stay out. I wouldn’t mind specking Perfectly Suited and Diss Is Dramatic at right prices.

NO OUTLAY

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Race 2 | NZ Racing Tips | Key Runners & Expert Tips

11. SACRED PEARL (RP $3.25)
6. SHARPIE (RP $4.50)
5. LEBANESE TRADER (RP $8.50)
4. MOCHATINI (RP $11.00)

Betting Strategy

I have been suitably impressed with the recent performances of SACRED PEARL and she is the horse to beat in this Special Conditions Maiden (MAAT). Whilst she lacks some early speed, she’s drawn to get an economical run, not too far off the leaders and the big track will suit her powerful finish.

SHARPIE presents at some value off his best efforts and he backs-up after looking a little lost around Trentham last weekend. He is an improver out of that, given a let-up following a Stakes 4th-placing.

LEBANESE TRADER and MOCHATINI are the other chances, although I can’t find that latter as short as some markets.

BACK (WIN) – SACRED PEARL WIN (1.25 units)

BACK (WIN) – SHARPIE WIN (0.75 unit)

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Race 3 NZ Racing Tips | Key Runners & Expert Tips

8. SERGIO (RP $5.00)
5. KELLY COE (RP $5.00)
11. BARNEY RUBBLE (RP $8.00)
3. CHASE (RP $10.00)

Betting Strategy

This isn’t a high confidence race, but the best of SERGIO would take him close to winning this and he’s one of the main horses to beat alongside KELLY COE. SERGIO has been freshened, but has trialed and can potentially lead without a huge amount of pressure. BARNEY RUBBLE and CHASE can run well. Either horse would be worth a smaller outlay at the right price.

BACK (WIN) – SERGIO (0.75 unit) 7th

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Race 4 | NZ Racing Tips | Key Runners& Expert Tips

12. FAMILY TIME (RP $5.00)
2. BEAUDZ WELL(rp – $5.00)
3. RANGITATA (RP $6.00)
13. DARLINGTON COUNTY (RP $10.00)

Betting Strategy

Pretty comfortable that the leading chances are FAMILY TIME, BEAUDZ WELL and RANGITATA. They are well very well-handicapped under the race conditions with only BEAUDZ WELL “appearing” to be out of form. I don’t think he’s been running that badly, but in events that haven’t suited his get-back pattern. At Trentham, over this distance, he can be a factor. Not a race I’m too keen on betting into unless we get some decent overs.

NO OUTLAY

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Race 5 | NZ Racing Tips | Key Runners & Expert Tips

4. MAI TAI (RP $4.50)
8. SAMIAM SEUSSIE (RP $5.00)
3 SINARAHMA (RP $5.50)
11. ISLA JAY (RP $11.00)
5. ZOLA EXPRESS (RP $11.00)
7. LES CRAYERES (RP $11.00)

Betting Strategy

This is a competitive race for mares and the horses that I don’t mind backing are two that should be well suited by the map and a speed that might not be more than a sit and sprint. MAI TAI brings an excellent form level and should receive an ideal run tracking the leaders. I like that she has been freshened-up after being fair at Group 1 level on this track in January, and her recent trial was okay.

ISLA JAY can run a very cheeky race if she’s allowed to lead. She might be a query at the mile, but having not tried it yet, I’m happy to speck her at a bigger price. SINARAHMA is a leading chance, but I can’t imagine her getting to a price I’d be happy to back her at given her racing pattern.

BACK (WIN) – MAI TAI WIN (1 unit)

BACK (WIN) – ISLA JAY WIN (0.5 unit)

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Race 6 | NZ Racing Tips | Key Runners & Expert Tips

8. IMPERATRIZ (RP $2.40)
1. ON THE BUBBLES (RP $6.00)
2. SHAMUS (RP $8.00)
3. I WISH I WIN (RP 10.00)

Betting Strategy

The Group 1 Levin Classic for three-year-old’s is run over 1600m and it’s fair to say that there are a few runners who are a touch weak over the distance. The horse to beat is IMPERATRIZ and her best form level should have her being too classy for some well-performed geldings.

IMPERATRIZ is drawn to sit just behind the main speed and her turn-of-foot is the best in the race. I don’t see the race being run faster than a good speed, which is a plus, as a hard run mile might find her out.

ON THE BUBBLES was given every favour when winning last time and it was a ‘workmanlike’ performance. He’s drawn to be pushed forward and he’s a leading chance. SHAMUS has been freshened and after a disappointing run over 2000m, drops back to a mile, which looks his trip. He hasn’t posted a big figure yet, but his winning record must be respected as some of the formlines tie in positively.

I WISH I WIN is a runner I could entertain backing at a bigger price and he wasn’t given a winning chance from his position and given how the race was run last time he met ON THE BUBBLES. He isn’t as well off against him at set-weights, but he looks ready to peak over the mile now. IMPERATRIZ is the main bet here.

BACK (WIN) – IMPERATRIZ WIN (4 units)

Click here to view the market for Race 6 on the Betfair Exchange.


Race 7 | NZ Racing Tips | Key Runners & Expert Tips

3. ROSE ‘N’ POWER (RP $5.00)
7. CAN I GET AN AMEN (RP $8.00)
4. TOP BRASS (RP $10.00)
5. BURGUNDY ROSE (RP $10.00)
6. OKAY PAL (RP $10.00)
2. CAVALLO VELOCE (RP $10.00)

Betting Strategy

This is a very hard race, with plenty of horses capable at their best, but it’s difficult knowing how close they might be to that. ROSE ‘N’ POWER is generally reliable and is the horse to beat by my assessment. She can find the lead and roll at an even speed. She fights hard in a finish and her top level is more than good enough.

CAN I GET AN AMEN will appeal to many given her last start run in the G1 Telegraph, with it being well-documented the subsequent deeds of ROCH ‘N’ HORSE, LEVANTE and MASCARPONE. That was clearly a career-best run and given she’s only the winner of three races and has a get-back, run-on pattern, I see her as a trappy bet at too short a price.

Can she replicate that and win? I’m likely to be against the market on this and she looks a good LAY. There’s not much between TOP BRASS, BURGUNDY ROSE, OKAY PAL and CAVALLO VELOCE in a race I’m going to take on CAN I GET AN AMEN.

LAY (WIN) – CAN I GET AN AMEN – WIN (to lose up to 4 units)

Click here to view the market for Race 7 on the Betfair Exchange.


Race 8 | NZ Racing Tips | Key Runners

1. SELF OBSESSION
4. BELLATRIX BLACK
5. GLORY BOUND
9. LE VILLI

Betting Strategy

The 2022 Group 1 New Zealand Oaks 2400m for three-year-fillies will see SELF OBSESSION go out a deserved favourite. She has been the standout filly in New Zealand over 2000m+ and the Oaks distance should ideally. Her tactical speed means she will likely race on or near the lead, and whilst that hasn’t been a common pattern of previous Oaks winners, most of those favoured to win haven’t had that pattern, with one that did, More Than Sacred, managing to sit outside of leader, controlling the tempo, before winning easily.

There are three horses that come out of a different formline, The Sunline Vase, that I see as the most capable of upsetting SELF OBSESSION. Namely, BELLATRIX BABE, GLORY BOUND and LE VILLI. BELLATRIX BLACK sprinted well from a good position to win that race and she has had a good prep for this. She doesn’t have the same mapping favours for the Oaks but has a better sprint than most. GLORY BOUND showed that at her best, she is close to the favourite. She should get an ideal run from barrier 7, and if she settles, she can be a factor.

LE VILLI doesn’t have a great racing pattern and will be giving most other start, but she has been very good this prep and was sectionally outstanding in the Vase. A strong staying test should suit her and she’s a runner that can swoop into the finish. I’m happy to back any or all those horses at the right price, but obviously SELF OBSESSION is the number one seed.

5 unit outlay

BACK (WIN) — SELF OBSESSION (2.75 units at $2.50+)

BACK (WIN) — BELLATRIX BLACK WIN (0.75 unit @ $9.00+)

BACK (WIN) — GLORY BOUND WIN (0.75 unit @ $9.00+)

BACK (WIN) — LE VILLI WIN (0.75 unit @ $9.00+)

LAY (WIN) — THE PERFECT PINK

Click here to head to the New Zealand Oaks market on the Betfair Exchange.


Race 9 | NZ Racing Tips | Key Runners

3. THE FEARLESS ONE (RP $3.50)
1. JUSTFIXIT WULDYA (RP $8.00)
2. SHOCKALLIA (RP $8.00)
6. HONG KONG (RP $8.00)

Betting Strategy

THE FEARLESS ONE is the horse that appeals as the hardest to beat, even though he’s building up a record a placegetter, rather than a winner. The fact remains that he’s been running well and horses that have beaten him recently, Family Time and Darlington County are leading chances in the higher-class St Leger.

One waiver is that is ‘run-on’ pattern is a punishing one, so it’s hard to be too bullish, but he’s the value and horse to beat. JUSTFIXIT WULDYA is worth a smaller outlay and should be well-suited by the increased distance of this race compared to the mile.

BACK (WIN) – THE FEARLESS ONE WIN (1.25 units)

BACK (WIN) – JUSTFIXIT WULDYA WIN (0.5 unit)

Click here to view the market for Race 9 on the Betfair Exchange.


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