Nedbank Golf Challenge: Final Round Preview

Gary Player Country Club in Sun City, North West Province, South Africa, Nov 8-11


Weather Report

Sunday –  33 Degrees, Partly Sunny, Precipitation 5%, Humidity 11%, Wind 12km/h


Leaderboard after Day 3

1        Sergio Garcia -10
2 Louis Oosthuizen -8
T3 Lee Westwood -7
T3 Mikko Korhonen -7
T3 Thomas Detry -7
6 Ross Fisher -6
7 Darren Fichardt -4
T8 Mike Lorenzo-Vera -3
T8 Dean Burmester -3
T8 Benjamin Herbert -3

Course Details and Round Summaries

Round 1 Summary

The player I was constantly talking about towards the end of the 2017/2018 season that was completely out of form and now back in form, was Mr Sergio Garcia. Sergio fired a brilliant 8 under par round of 64 and sits 4 shots clear at the top of the leaderboard.

Pre-tournament favorite Rory McIlroy that I thought was under the odds in my pre-event article, struggled on day 1 to an even par round of 72. For those of you that were game enough to “lay” Rory, could of easily “greened up” your book after Day 1, as he now sits at $23 in the market.

Round 2 Summary

Sergio was holding onto his 4 shot lead nicely early on day 2, before Louis Oosthuizen made a brilliant comeback, after an un-playable to sit 1 shot behind Serio heading into the weekend. Sergio fired a 1 under par 71 on day two and Louis fired a very solid 5 under par round of 67.

Pre-tournament favorite Rory McIlroy continues to struggle, sitting on 1 over par total after two days.

Li Haotong continues his solid form and looked well placed for another top 10 finish.

Round 3 Summary

The first 3 rounds, Sergio has looked very comfortable on the greens, which is normally a good sign if your considering placing a back on Sergio heading into Day 4. He is hitting a lot of putts on good lines, even when he is missing from long range.

The only thing that concerns me with backing leaders early on this golf course, is there is a lot of trouble on tee-shots. One errant tee shot and a player can quickly make a double or worse. Also, the leaderboard is condensing, with 4 players now within 3 shots of the lead. Sergio looked be spacing himself from the rest of the field again early in the round, however on the back nine, we saw him come back to the field and let a bunch of players back into the tournament. Louis Oosthuizen may seem out of the tournament on some holes but continues to fight back.


In-Play Betting for the Final Round

Here are some trading suggestions: 

Holes 16,17,18 all rank in the hardest 8 holes on the course, and all average over its par. A strategy to use in-play is placing a lay bet on the 16th tee and re-back after the player of your choice completes the 18th hole.

As mentioned above, you can use the same trading strategy starting on the 11th tee and finishing on the 13th green.

The 2nd, 10th and 14th are all relatively easy Par 5’s. If the player you fancy is in the fairway off the tee, I suggest placing a back bet and then placing a lay bet once the hole is completed.

Make sure the market is compressed on the back and lay side before doing any of these trades.


Betting Strategy

Below are some bets to consider, you may also want to read the in-play betting notes as well.

 BACK – Sergio Garcia to Win outright at $1.85 for 3 units

 BACK – Louis Oosthuizen to Win outright at $4.50 for 1 unit

 BACK – Thomas Detry to Win outright at $14.50 for 1 unit

Note – The above “outright betting” unit betting strategy will see a break even result if Sergio wins, however if Louis wins, it will return a small profit, and if Thomas wins it will return a large profit.


Related Articles

Golf Betting Tips: Prediction Model

Betfair’s Prediction Model provides golf betting tips for the PGA and tournaments. The data science tool rates every player’s ...

Intelligent Golf Betting: The Derivative Golf Markets

Derivative betting markets are those invented by the industry, not the sport. In golf for instance, we have Top ...

Six Variables To Consider With Your Golf Betting

Whether you’re building a golf model or just looking to manually punt on the golf each week, it pays ...