Nedbank Golf Challenge: Expert Preview

Event and Course Details

For many years the Nedbank Challenge was a small 12 man invitational event. Since it has become a European Tour Event in 2013, with 30 players competing and in 2016 it became a 72 man field and part of the European Final Series.

The now Rolex Series consists of the top 64 players from the Race to Dubai standings and a few other invitations.

The Gary Player Country Club is a 6550m Par 72 layout, that was designed by Gary Player in 1978. It is a walking course with a 5km running trail along the side of the course. Built in an extinct volcanic crater, this immaculate golfing paradise was name South Africa’s best golf course at the 2015 World Golf Awards.

Weather Report

Thursday – Partly Cloudy, 27 Degrees, Precipitation 0%, Humidity 36%, Wind 13km/h

Friday – Sunny, 29 Degrees, Precipitation 0%, Humidity 29%, Wind 11km/h

Past Winners and Runners Up

Top 25 Players - Current Form Review

Poor Form*- Players Averaging over par – Shubhankar Sharma is in horrible form at present, closely followed by Jorge Campillo and Brendon Stone.

Good Form** – Hoatong Li and Lucas Herbert lead the way of the inform players at present, closely followed Sergio Garcia who is quickly regaining his form. Shane Lowry and Chris Wood are the next best.

History at the Event for the past 3 years

Good History at Event** – Defending Champion Brendon Grace is quickly earning a reputation that he has a love affair with Sun City. He is by far the best player in the last two times the tournament has been played 72 man field. Hoatong Li is also strong at this event on two prior visits and is currently in form.

Poor History at Event* – Brendon Stone has horrible form here the past two years and is a player that is out of current form also.

My Rankings for the Tournament

Note – You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s

“The Big Overs” – Lucas Herbert is a nice over this week, along with Chris Wood, Andrea Pavan and Li Haotong.

 “The Big Under’s” – Rory McIlroy is little too short for my liking, along with Brendon Grace, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Matt Wallace, Alexander Levy and Julian Suri.

Compare my prices to the Betfair market, to find outright betting “overs” and “under’s”, and also apply these odds to top 5, top 10, top 20, tournament match bets etc.

In Play Trading Opportunities

This tournament typically has high scoring averages due to the course difficulty. Could be a good option to “back” a player after the morning round day 1, and then “lay” them before they commence there afternoon Day 2 round. They could easily shorten in the market.

I will be playing the Par 5’s this week as I usually always do. If I see the leading players in a good position on the fairway, I will be inclined to place a “back” bet and then place a “lay” bet once the hole is completed, particularly if they have an iron into the green and the green is not heavily surrounded by trouble.

Note – 75% of leaders that lead by a shot entering the final round don’t win, and they average worse than the PGA Tour average. This can be a great strategy for 2 ball match betting and laying the leader in play, but only if they are below $3. Last week Li Haotong was $2 entering the final round and lost, he struggled with his game most of the day. This I notice is a common trait with leaders entering the final day, put simply “nerves”!

Difficult driving holes and players with poor driving accuracy percentages. If they find themselves in contention, lay tee-shots and re-back after the ball comes to rest.