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EXPERT RACING TIPS: MORNINGTON

MORNINGTON PREVIEW | THURSDAY THE 28TH

RAIL: 2m | TRACK: Soft 6

A drying day Wednesday and no showers predicted on raceday should make for a good surface. Expecting a G4-S5 and a track that plays evenly.

Best Bets

Jackson Oldham

Best Bet

Betting Strategy

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LAY: 8. Outcaster (WIN) for 3 unit(s) (Rated at: $5.10)

A below average maiden, regardless Outcaster appears too short in early markets at $3.4. Her first two career ratings would put her at the head of the market in this race, however her last three runs, including two this preparation have been well short of anything that is deserving of favouritism in this race.

Jackson Oldham

Best Bet

Betting Strategy

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BACK: 2. Spirit Beast (WIN) for 2.5 unit(s) (Rated at: $2.45)

Spirit Beast will just need the pattern in favour, horses to be able to swoop and he will be in the finish. He was good in a harder race with the race shape against first-up at Sandown.

RACE 1

2. Eject
3. Souk
1. Cyclone Coco
7. Viola Vivace

Betting Strategy

BACK: 2. Eject (WIN) for 3 unit(s) (Rated at: $1.87)

Eject has had three jumpouts and a trial, two in September then two in December. His first was very impressive, showing a quality turn of foot to beat the likes of Dublin Down, who won at Flemington over Cup week. The only issue is his habit of missing the start but that shouldn’t be too much of factor, in a five-horse field.

RACE 2

9. Sunflower Gift
4. Mac Kalhoun
2. Knentii
8. Royal Pharoah

Betting Strategy

NO BET.

No interest, next race.

RACE 3

3. Lukan
6. Il Americana
8. Outcaster
2. Hydrate

Betting Strategy

LAY: 8. Outcaster (WIN) for 3 unit(s) (Rated at: $5.10)

A below average maiden, regardless Outcaster appears too short in early markets at $3.4. Her first two career ratings would put her at the head of the market in this race, however her last three runs, including two this preparation have been well short of anything that is deserving of favouritism in this race.

RACE 4

14. Excommunicado
17. Some Sheila
10. Silver Hammer
11. Starton

Betting Strategy

NO BET.

Market close to correct in my humble. Excommunicado has jumped out about as well as horses trained by the Freedman’s jump out, on three occasions. On debut, drawn 15, I couldn’t take $2.2 although I’d be more inclined to back than lay.

RACE 5

10. Edge Of Seventeen
3. Amigo
5. My Name Is
7. Belnera

Betting Strategy

BACK: 10. Edge Of Seventeen (WIN) for 2 unit(s) (Rated at: $3.6)

Edge Of Seventeen goes good. Her jumpouts at Pakenham have been outstanding and she jumped out against Amigo and although Moody jumpouts must always be taken with a grain of salt, I believe she goes every bit as good as the favourite. She was scratched from a race last week, which suggests that Stokes is intent on winning, on debut.

RACE 6

1. Shaime
2. Sibel
7. Ode To Joy
8. Just Malcolm

Betting Strategy

NO BET.

Shaime has clearly the best ratings coming into this. Her jumpouts have been solid without being spectacular and that, coupled with the fitness and map advantage that Sibel has is enough for me to stay out.

RACE 7

2. Walter Spur
4. Scream
1. Count Nicholas
7. Extreme Ally

Betting Strategy

NO BET.

Walter Spur won with a leg in the ear first-up this track and distance and the time was slick. Barrier 1 is a negative for such a big horse like him and I wouldn’t want the track to dry up too much for him.

RACE 8

5. Cool Heart
2. Devils Delight
1. Degreeofdifficulty
6. Herbert Park

Betting Strategy

NO BET.

Cool Heart a very slight overlay in my market but not enough to suggest a play. She has been running well and the ratings have been solid. Devils Delight has jumped out well, Stokes fresh is always a positive. Hebert Park won well on debut and gets back on the home track.

RACE 9

2. Spirit Beast
11. Our Warrior
8. Valenki
6. Blesk

Betting Strategy

BACK: 2. Spirit Beast (WIN) for 2.5 unit(s) (Rated at: $2.45)

Spirit Beast will just need the pattern in favour, horses to be able to swoop and he will be in the finish. He was good in a harder race with the race shape against first-up at Sandown.

MORNINGTON TIPS

SUMMARY

Mornington Racecourse is set amongst 68 hectares of rolling lawns and cypress trees, and affords racegoers views of the nearby Moorooduc Plains. The grandstand and tight turning track create a natural amphitheatre on raceday, with Mornington – which is operated by the Melbourne Racing Club – hosting 20 meetings per year. The club’s feature fixture is Mornington Cup Day, which offers a golden ticket to the Caulfield Cup. For Mornington race tips on cup day and throughout the year, head to the Betfair Hub.   

KEY EVENTS

The Listed Mornington Cup, run over 2400m under weight-for-age conditions in March, is a ballot exempt race for the $5m Caulfield Cup. Previous winners include Kings Will Dream (2018), who brought up his fifth straight victory in the Mornington Cup and went on to start favourite in the Caulfield  Cup, but could only manage sixth after a luckless run. Chris Waller’s progressiver stayer Crystal Pegasus earned a ticket to the 2022 Caulfield Cup after his Mornington Cup win under Craig Williams. The Listed Hareeba Stakes, named in honour of the champion sprinter who won six Black Type races, is run over 1200m on the same day.                    

TRACK PROFILE

With a circumference of 1800m and a short home straight measuring just 210m, Mornington is one of Victoria’s smaller racetracks. There is a minor incline in the home straight, but given its shallow gradient it doesn’t have a major impact on races. The tight track and short home straight invariably favour on-pace runners, particularly in sprint and middle distance races. With back markers usually struggling to make up ground, it pays to draw inside and be up on the speed. Betfair’s team of tipsters stay across the speed maps and track variables when they deliver their Mornington best bets today and for every meeting. 

HISTORY

In 1899, the Mornington Racing Club was formed and the first race meeting was held at Mornington in 1911. The first ever Mornington Cup was run over 1700m in 1921, with a prize fund of £80 and a trophy valued at £75. By 1948, the prize purse had increased to £1000. In 2010, the Melbourne racing Club assumed control of Mornington Racecourse. 

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