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FEATURE PREVIEWS: MEMSIE STAKES

MEMSIE STAKES

Track: Caulfield | Distance: 1400m | Rail Position: True | Current Condition: Good 4 | Predicted Conditions: Good 4 Prizemoney: $1,000,000

Weather forecast appears good so the track should play well with the rail true.

A good field of 14, with 5 of them G1 winners, for the first G1 of the new racing season in VIC.  Previously won by the likes of Atlantic Jewel, Boban, Humidor and Behemoth (twice).

HISTORICAL PROFILING (LAST 9 YEARS):

• 5 winners have come off a 14-day break (2nd up (4) and 3rd up (1)).
• 4 winners have been first up off 63-to-140-day breaks.
• Geldings aged 5-7 had won the past 7 editions of the race before 6yo mare Snapdancer last year.
• 7 of the past 9 winners have settled in the first 5 in running.
• 5 of the past 9 winners have had an SP of $3.70 or lower.

SPEED MAP

Annavisto should set a decent tempo here, with Alligator Blood also pushing up front.
Western Empire & Bandersnatch will position up close to the speed.
Bank Maur, Princess Grace, Nonconformist, Osipenko, Mr Brightside & Steinem should settle handy enough to strike.
I Wish I Win, Duke De Sessa, The Inevitable, Amenable & Aegon likely out the back.

MEMSIE STAKES | FINAL FIELD – KEY CHANCES

1. Mr Brightside – Dual Doncaster Handicap winner, plus won the All Star Mile last prep. Just keeps getting better with age and was impressive first up winning the G2 PB Lawrence. Drawn the carpark.

2. I Wish I Win – Possibly the best horse in Australia. Won the TJ Smith for us last start in emphatic fashion and won the Golden Eagle the prep before. The Everest is his target in 6 weeks time, so not expecting him to be wound up for this and will get a long way back.

3. Alligator Blood – Has won 5 G1s, two at this distance. Has won two trials in prep for this and rates highly on speed here.

9. Duke De Sessa – Import who was heavily backed first up in the Doncaster, was held up in the straight and only beaten 3.5L. Cannot discount here.

10. Osipenko – Got back and finished home strongly for 5th beaten 1.4L in the Winx Stakes first up. Had an excellent prep as a 3yo winning at G2 and G3 level, and close up in two G1 races despite an interrupted campaign. Certainly up to winning though 1600m at Flemington next start will suit better.

11. Bank Maur – Has had 3 trials to prep for this so will be fit. Has finished within 2L in two G1s as a 3yo. Can run a cheeky race.

13. Princess Grace – Ran 2nd in the Winx Stakes first up despite being stuck on the fence against the bias. Take that on face value and has to rate highly here.

15. Steinem – Underrated mare with G1 talent. Has the ability to surprise here at big odds fresh.

DEAN EVANS’ TOP SELECTIONS

3 – Alligator Blood
13 – Princess Grace
1 – Mr Brightside
9 – Duke De Sessa
15 – Steinem

MEMSIE STAKES | BETTING STRATEGY

Alligator Blood and Princess Grace are the two that map best.
Mr Brightside is absolutely flying but must slot in from gate 15.
Duke De Sessa and Steinem are both from the Maher/Eustace camp and have the talent to take this out at big odds.
Osipenko a danger, capable of winning.
I Wish I Win worth risking first up here.

 

BACK 3 – Alligator Blood 0.6w
BACK 13 – Princess Grace 0.6w
BACK 1 – Mr Brightside 0.5w
BACK 9 – Duke De Sessa 0.5w
BACK 15 – Steinem 0.3w

DEAN EVANS’ RESULTS

Units Outlayed: 422.2
Units Returned: 461.3
Profit On Turnover: 9.3%

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