Melton Ratings: Saturday 8th July 2017

Race comments, confidence and ratings across the entire card at Melton.

 

R1 | 2240m | 5:28pm

Delight Me is arguably one of the best mares in the country. The winner of 12/15 and three placings, she really hasn’t put a foot wrong in her career. Has had one run (May 2017) in a year which is the only query here, but has won a recent trial. Bettor Downunder was most unlucky when eigth here two starts ago then couldn’t handle the horrible draw last start. Nathan Jack is on tonight and will get every chance from the draw. Looks Like Heaven has good early speed and can take up a prominent spot after a track-record win last start at Ararat. Hard to see anything else winning.

Race Confidence: Low

RunnerRated Price
1. Bettor Downunder4.4
2. Delight Me2.5
3. Looks Like Heaven5.9
5. Ameretto23
6. Hoo Nien240
7. Yerrington Bob65
8. Hes Okey Dokey65
9. Charlaval38
11. Max Richter23
12. Changing Code48
13. Hotasel110
14. Sapphire Swayze110

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Bettor Downunder

R2 | 1720m | 5:55pm

The PBD has made this a very open race. Crockets Cullen, Love Ina Chevy and Gotta Go Henry all like to go forward as does the Four Ex Dan. Love Ina Chevy was a surprise winner in this grade from behind the leader last week. The leader was Gotta Go Henry which ran fifth so expect a similar map here. Four Ex Dan went to the chair and was beaten a lip. Maximan was favourite that night and was a neck third. Metro Mike has been slightly disappointing lately but Alford is back on, It Is Billy is in awesome form, look for him late and Burnaholeinmypocket would probably be favourite with a better draw.

Race Confidence: Medium

RunnerRated Price
1. Crockets Cullen80
2. Savesometimetodeam110
3. Love Ina Chevy36
4. Gotta Go Henry110
6. Four Ex Dan5
7. Bad Billy28
8. Burnaholeinmypocket6.5
9. Maximan4.3
11. Metro Mike6.5
12. It Is Billy6.5

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Maximan

R3 | 2240m G1 | 6:27pm

Emma Stewart has a stranglehold on the event with the two hot favourites and also a back up. The two “Nostra’s” hold the key here. Nostra Beach has drawn better than Nostra Villa, but the latter may be the better filly. Mark Pitt may have missed the boat last week with Nostra Beach but he wont from this draw so look for him to lead with Im Very Willing getting a cushy run behind it. Nostra Villa is four from four and for her to go a perfect five she will have to do some work at some stage. Passions Delight, Amelias Courage, Major Occasion and Saphirique are all place chances.

Race Confidence: Low

RunnerRated Price
1. Im Very Willing32
2. Luvyoubabe70
3. Nostra Beach2.74
4. Passions Delight21
5. Soho Burning Love590
6. Amelias Courage40
8. Major Occasion70
9. Imprincessgemma120
10. Nostra Villa2.16
11. Saphirique120
11. Pistol Abbey120
13. Man Hands260

Betting Strategy

BACK (PLACE) Im Very Willing

R4 | 2240m G1 | 7:02pm

This race may as well be called the Emma Stewart Stakes as she has seven of the 13 runners which is a phenomenal effort for a Group 1. The map? Who knows, but you would imagine Major Times has to be a chance of leading. The big question is does Gavin Lang hand up to Chris Alford on Poster Boy or not? Bella Ball Terror will get a nice peg run and isn’t without a place chance at huge odds. Poster Boy is the obvious top pick here but if it is a real race, he may be posted and not sure he is good enough to win over the 2240m in the chair. Should be a good spectacle and there could be an upset here.

Race Confidence: Low

RunnerRated Price
1. Bella Ball Terror38
2. Major Times4.6
3. Poster Boy1.57
4. Regal Cheval110
5. Liftntorque70
6. Concealment38
7. Big Bad Bruce70
8. Beltane110
9. Tapthekeg110
11. Act Of Valor110
12. Tam Major110
13. Braeview Bondi240

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Poster Boy

R5 | 2240m G1 | 7:30pm

Whirily School is flying having won there from last four including two races in this series. Both of those coming from back row draws, draws better in 2 tonight so expect Greg Sugars to get to the fence first and look for a soft run. That could come in the form of Without You who has very good gate speed and can lead. Nikkibadwagon loves doing work and looks the death seat horse. Striking Beauty is on the improve and from two or three pegs looks a good place chance. Rockstar Angel and Rocknroll Magic both look to have their work cut out from their respective draws.

Race Confidence: High

RunnerRated Price
1. Striking Beauty11.5
2. Whirily School3.55
3. Ellie Is A Bella530
4. Nikkibadwagon5.8
5. Magical Delight240
7. Without You11
8. All My Savings1000
9. All In Your Hands65
10. Rockabella Starz530
11. Rocknroll Magic8.2
12. Ideal Lifestyle240
13. Rockstar Angel5

Betting Strategy

BACK (PLACE) Striking Beauty

R6 | 2240m G1 | 8:00pm

This could very well be the race of the night with the two hotpots Miss Graceland and Petacular fighting for early supremacy. Whoever gets that will go a long way towards winning this event. I’m leaning towards Miss Graceland with the draw. She has won five in a row and seven from last eight with one of those defeating Petacular in the Victoria Oaks. Petacular hasn’t done much wrong but I feel she is “gifted” the race quite a bit. Delightful System get a nice run on the fence, Shady Secret may get a lovely 1×1 run here and is a bolters chance at a place. Manthadee will run along the pegs late. Carlas Pixel is going well and can run top-four as can the bottom two in Tell Me Tales and Keayang Secret.

Race Confidence: High

RunnerRated Price
1. Delightful System75
2. Miss Graceland1.9
3. Shady Secret75
4. Miss Dangerfield620
5. Petacular2.78
6. Six Elements1000
8. Manthadee32
9. Madame Meilland620
10. Carlas Pixel120
11. Ourark1000
12. Tell Me Tales55
13. Keayang Secret55

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Miss Graceland

R7 | 2240m G1 | 8:30pm

Stars Align has done nothing wrong since its fifth in The Jewels having won three in a row in Australia, the latest from a horror gate in the Semi. Had to do all the work that night but was much too tough when a terrific winner beating Rocknroll Icon. That horse led and gave a good sight and gets a good draw again. Jilliby Kung Fu may hold them all out early, but also has the option to sit with a trail from the draw. Was a very good second to Shartin here when leading in a flying 1.52.5 three starts ago. Scooterwillrev is Tasmania’s best horse but has the visitors draw, Our Little General was one of the pre-post favourites for the event, but his form has soured a little lately. Will get a good run on the pegs either two or three back. The res really cant win with Keayang Da Vinci, Wrappers Delight, and Our Triple Play the best of them.

Race Confidence: High

RunnerRated Price
1. Jilliby Kung Fu5.9
2. Whats The Catch270
3. Rocknroll Icon7.4
4. Stars Align1.65
5. Mista Lombo610
6. Our Triple Play270
7. Scooterwillrev120
8. Our Lilttle General32
10. Jilliby Chevy120
11. Form Analyst270
12. Keayang Da Vinci120
13. Wrappers Delight75

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Stars Align

R8 | 2240m G1 | 9:00pm

Soho Tribeca is the early favourite here and was very good winning the heat and semi. The heat was very comfortable but in the semi he led and only “fell” in beating Brocks Territory by half a head. I can’t possibly get him anywhere in the red like the current quote is. General Dodge is one of Australia’s most exciting pacers at the moment. Has won nine from 10 with the only blemish coming at his second ever start. Has a super high cruising speed, this gelding just gets better and better each run. Cruised home in the semi when sensationally backed having led and won easy. Will have to do more work here but is just going that well that he looks hard to beat. Moonrock is a former Kiwi who has found “The General” too good at both starts. Brallos Pass will get a good run as will Dancin With Elvis from their draws.

Race Confidence: High

RunnerRated Price
1. Dancin With Elvis50
2. Brallos Pass15.5
3. Don’T Hold Back80
4. Professor Tom80
5. Illawong Maestro1000
6. Soho Tribeca2.74
7. Brocks Territory29
8. Moonrock10
9. General Dodge2.74
11. Perspective170
12. Battle Born80
13. Dominate The Dojo940

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Soho Tribeca

R9 | 2240m | 9:30pm

Keayang Torah has drawn well but hasn’t won for a year so there has to be a slight question mark there. Grinvil is first up since November 2016 but has trialled very well for this. Had a slight set back as was scratched a couple of weeks back when I really liked him, has drawn terribly but I think he is a chance fresh. The Fat Man is slowly getting back to form, Duke Of Albany is top pick and always a chance in this type of race. The South Australian visitors in Teramby Star, Futurist and Whenmechief all have chances as does relatively newcomer to Victoria, Nonno Stride.

Race Confidence: Low

RunnerRated Price
1. Racer55
2. Teramby Star85
3. Keayang Torah4.6
4. Northview Gambler85
6. Rajah Wealth85
7. Grinvil7.4
8. Futurist40
9. The Fat Man10.5
10. Nonno Stride10.5
11. Whenmechief10.5
12. Duke Of Albany3.95
13. Virgil Hilts190

Betting Strategy

BACK (E/W) Grinvil

R10 | 2240m | 10:00pm

The heats of this were run on Monday, Madison Louise was well fancied but wasn’t good enough. Imagine Emmett Brosnan will take a trail today with some good speed outside of him. Rule Of Thumb was back to his best in the heat and looks hardest to beat here with some good speed on early. Flight Officer and Four Starzzz Forsa are money-munchers so avoid them at all costs. Kotare Mahdi was a fluke winner last time getting some extraordinary luck early. Lorimermara can run top-four if the driver does everything right.

Race Confidence: High

RunnerRated Price
1. Madison Louise8.5
2. Lorimermara38
3. Atchoo8.5
5. Flight Officer24
6. Four Starzzz Forsa12
8. Royal Knockout24
9. Rule Of Thumb1.88
10. Irish Player550
12. Most Happy Cullen50
13. Kotare Mahdi110

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Rule Of Thumb


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