McGregor vs Poirier 2: Expert Preview and Tips

McGregor vs Poirier 2 is the rematch over six years in the making as the two square off on Fight Island at UFC 257.

The first bout between Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier took place at UFC 178 in 2014, with the Irishman winning via first round knockout. Poirier gets his shot at redemption and with a potential title challenge on the line, plenty is at stake on Sunday afternoon.

Betfair’s MMA expert, Gugabe, will be previewing the fight, providing in-depth analysis into each fighter and their styles before delivering his tip on the outcome of the fight.

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Conor McGregor v Dustin Poirier

This is a rematch of a very quick knockout and I believe that if Conor McGregor’s going to win, it’s probably going to be a pretty similar fight. It’s hard to draw too many inferences from Conor’s recent action, seeing as his 40 seconds against Donald Cerrone is his only action since October 2018.

But, if the Cerrone fight taught us anything, it’s that Conor’s still pathologically aggressive and one of the best, quickest starters in the sport’s history. Poirier’s improved defensively since their first bout, but still is liable to having issues with being blown out of the water by faster starters.

The main question is more ‘what happens if Conor can’t blast Poirier out of there inside half a round’, since I feel the fight becomes a lot more interesting should Conor be unable to blitzkrieg his way to victory.

Conor’s gas tank has never been an especially strong asset of his (which is further magnified by his historical tendency for frothing-at-the-mouth aggression), and Poirier’s developed over time into a sterling attritive fighter with great output. I think he’s a bit less overtly favorable for Conor than the Cerrone matchup is, as Poirier’s less fragile and likely will take over more emphatically if given the opportunity.

If Conor’s gonna cover his $1.35 price point, it’s predicated on him blitzing Poirier out of there in short order. Hence I’d generally recommend a play on Conor KO @ $1.70 over the money line at $1.35. A submission would be a surprise, though you never know with club-sub opportunities and I’d be pretty shocked by Conor overcoming the volume and cardio disparities in order to take a decision.

If Poirier’s still standing, I think the fight becomes a hell of a lot more interesting. I like the price on Poirier submission out at $14 as Conor’s historically tended to be a fairly easy tap once he gets tired, and Poirier’s very happy to work his BJJ game.

Prediction

McGregor KO R1

Betting Strategy

BACK — Conor McGregor by KO for 2 units at $1.70

BACK — Dustin Poirier by Submission for 0.5 units at $14

In-play look to get on Poirier if he’s still standing after 7.5 minutes — to bet in-play, call our Telephone Betting line on 132 238.

Amanda Ribas v Marina Rodriguez

Amanda Ribas is probably the next big thing at Women’s Strawweight, while Marina Rodriguez is very good at striking but lacks a lot of depth in the grappling game.

I personally consider this more of an IQ test for Ribas than anything, as she’ll be given the choice between ‘get into a kickboxing match with Marina and have a lot of trouble against a top 3 WSW pure striker’ and ‘go for takedowns and likely actually cover her $1.36 pricepoint’.

The best way to cover the difference is to just play the Ribas Submission price at $4.40, in my opinion. If Ribas is electing to grapple proactively and having success getting takedowns, submission will look like a value play. If Ribas is either failing to grapple proactively or get takedowns when she’s going for them, it’s going to be very difficult for her to justify that $1.36 pricing whilst she’s kickboxing.

Prediction

Ribas Submission R1

Betting Strategy

BACK — Ribas by Submission for 1.5 units at $4.40



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