McGregor vs Poirier 3: Expert Preview and Tips

McGregor vs Poirier 3 is the completion of the trilogy as the two square off in Las Vegas at UFC 264.

The first bout between Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier took place at UFC 178 in 2014, with the Irishman winning via first round knockout before Poirier got his redemption with his own KO win at UFC 257 in 2020.

Betfair’s MMA expert, Gugabe, has previewed the trilogy fight, providing in-depth analysis into both fighters and their styles before delivering his tip on the outcome of the fight.

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Conor McGregor v Dustin Poirier

I feel like I called this fight to a tee last time, albeit I expected Poirier to take over around the 7.5 minute point instead of just instantly getting the KO when Conor started running out of steam. I’d expect roughly the same dynamic here, with McGregor winning the first round (and likely relying on a quick KO to win convincingly) before falling in the face of Poirier’s more-consistent volume, pressure and attritional work.

After the loss last time, it is possible that Conor decides to take it slow… but I can’t really see how that benefits him from a winning-the-fight POV. It may postpone his cardio collapse, but he’s still going to have serious difficulty beating Poirier on output or workrate without getting close to the cardio cliff. I feel that his best chance of winning is another crack at starting fast and seeing if he can get Poirier out of there.

My advice is thus essentially identical to the first time. Hold off till the end of Round 1 to bet Dustin. Poirier submission also seems fairly playable at the current pricing, considering Conor’s historically been the type to give up the submission when in trouble and has historically had more cardio issues than durability issues.


Poirier Round 3 Finish

Betting Strategy

BACK — Poirier after Round 1 finishes for 1 unit

BACK — Poirier submission at 8.00 for 0.40 units.

To bet in-play, call our Telephone Betting line on 132 238

Stephen Thompson V Gilbert Burns

I think the Inside The Distance in this fight should be significantly shorter priced, as it’s essentially a perfect example of a binary matchup. Burns needs to either clip Wonderboy in an early surge, or get the fight to the ground, in order to have much chance of winning. Burns is fairly fragile in terms of both frontrunning and in terms of his chin, and Wonderboy’s ageing to the point it wouldn’t be a shock if he suddenly can’t take the same shots.

My expectation is a second round KO for Thompson, albeit one where Burns comes out hard, fast and trying to use legkicks on Wonderboy’s fairly-exposed lead leg in his karate stance. That should pull Thompson into a war that’s conducive to finding a finish eitherway.

Wonderboy’s recent non-finishing has been more predicated on some incredible displays of durability from his opponents, which is something that Burns has historically not been able to do.


Wonderboy KO2

Betting Strategy

BACK — Ends Inside The Distance at 1.91 for 2.5 units.

To bet in-play, call our Telephone Betting line on 132 238

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