Melbourne City v Melbourne Victory

Friday 2 March 7:50pm – AAMI Park

Match Odds

Match Overview

City take the long trip back from Perth after conceding in the 85th and 97th minutes to go down 1-2. Not the ideal preparation for a derby, made worse by the send-off and subsequent suspension of Bart Schenkenveld who has started 20 of their 21 matches so far this season. Not an easy player to replace particularly with fellow defensive player Osama Malik out injured. Ruon Tongyik may be given an opportunity or Michael Jakobsen may drop back from midfield, either way it is a big loss.

Victory won 3-0 at home to Adelaide last week but the match was much tighter than the result would suggest. They were improved on recent efforts but once again a long way from their benchmarks last season. Thank goodness they found Leroy George else I suspect their season would already be over.

Key Statistics

  • A different slant on the statistics for this big Derby match where I like to focus on the Derby history as much as current form.
  • Overall played 24 Victory 11 City 5 Drawn 8. Over/Under 2.5 19/5
  • At Aami played 12 Victory 5 City 5 Drawn 2 Over/Under 2.5 9/3
  • This season overall over/under 2.5 stats for both teams Victory 13/8 and City 13/8

Verdict

Both the season stats and the overall Derby stats point to a match with goals. The match result is tough to call, the changes necessary to the City defence has me leaning to the Victory but there is not quite enough value. Just sit back and cheer for goals.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.5+ for 3 units

Newcastle Jets v Sydney FC

Saturday 3 March 5:35pm – McDonald Jones Stadium

Match Odds

Match Overview

Top of the table clash which should fit the bill with both teams coming off good wins last week.

The Jets put the absence of Patricio Rodriguez to one side to dominate Brisbane in a 1-0 win. It should have been plenty more, but some poor finishing combined with Jamie Young goalkeeping heroics conspired to keep Brisbane in the match. They will want to be more clinical against Sydney.

Sydney just continue to chalk up the wins after a comfortable 3-1 win over Western Sydney last week. They once again had to come from behind which they have done in 5 of their 16 wins.

The last time these two met we were delivered a cracking 2-2 draw at Allianz where the Jets led twice.

Key Statistics

  • Newcastle have won 7 of 11 home games losing 2 and drawing 2. 7 of 11 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Newcastle at home have scored an average of 2.2 goals per match (2nd) from 15.5 (3rd) total shots and 6.4 (2nd) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 34% of shots on target is ranked 5th.
  • Defensively Newcastle at home have conceded an average of 0.9 goals per match (1st) from 9.5 (1st) total shots and 3.2 (2nd) shots on target.
  • Sydney have won 8 of 10 away games losing 1 and drawing 1. 5 of 10 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Sydney away have scored an average of 2.2 goals per match (1st) from 11.7 (4th) total shots and 4.8 (2nd) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 46% of shots on target is ranked 1st.
  • Defensively Sydney away have conceded an average of 0.4 goals per match (1st) from 10.9 (2nd) total shots and 2.2 (1st) shots on target.

Verdict

Both teams are lethal on the counter attack and I expect this will be end to end with plenty of chances.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Back over 2.5 goals at 1.5+ for 3 units

Brisbane Roar v Adelaide United

Saturday 3 March 7:50pm – Suncorp Stadium

Match Odds

Match Overview

Brisbane struggled against the up-tempo Jets last week. Be it the ageing squad or the conditions they seemed off the pace at times and if it wasn’t for Jamie Young they would have been beaten comfortably. That said they did have a few big chances of their own and Jets keeper Jack Duncan was in good form himself.

Adelaide were ok against Victory but once again lacked for a cutting edge up front. They weren’t helped by the fact that new striker Dzengis Cavusevic got himself sent off 10 minutes after coming on. Ersan Gulum is a big inclusion for Adelaide.

Key Statistics

  • Brisbane have won 2 of 12 home games losing 8 and drawing 2. 8 of 12 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Brisbane at home have scored an average of 0.9 goals per match (10th) from 11.3 (9th) total shots and 3.8 (6th) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 24% of shots on target is ranked 10th.
  • Defensively Brisbane at home have conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match (8th) from 14.1 (10th) total shots and 5.7 (9th) shots on target.
  • Adelaide have won 5 of 11 away games losing 4 and drawing 2. 7 of 11 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Adelaide away have scored an average of 1.2 goals per match (7th) from 13.8 (1st) total shots and 4.4 (4th) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 27% of shots on target is ranked 8th.
  • Defensively Adelaide away have conceded an average of 1.5 goals per match (6th) from 10.5 (1st) total shots and 3.8 (2nd) shots on target.

Verdict

Difficult to see a lot of goals in this one with finishing an issue for both teams.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 1.9+ for 1.5 units


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