Brisbane Roar v Newcastle Jets

Saturday 24 Feburary 5:35pm – Suncorp Stadium

Match Overview

Brisbane are all but at full strength now and have even added the “slippery fish” Henrique back into the squad as a new signing. They have won 3 of their last 4 even though their underlying stats have remained reasonably constant. Certainly, it suggests they were never going as poorly as it looked, simply they were undermanned.

The Jets were great value in their 2-2 draw at Western Sydney. They could easily have won and were on the end of some dicey VAR decisions. Patricio Rodriquez misses out with a calf injury which is a blow, but Joe Champness will likely come in and they don’t lose too much with the young Australian international.

Key Statistics

  • Brisbane have won 2 of 11 home games losing 7 and drawing 2. 8 of 11 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Brisbane at home have scored an average of 1 goal per match (8th) from 11.4 (9th) total shots and 4 (6th) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 25% of shots on target is ranked 10th.
  • Defensively Brisbane at home have conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match (8th) from 13.5 (9th) total shots and 5.2 (9th) shots on target.
  • Newcastle have won 4 of 9 away matches, losing 2 and drawing 3. 9 of 9 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Newcastle away have scored an average of 2.1 goals per match (2nd) from 11.4 (5th) total shots and 4.9 (1st) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 43% of shots on target is ranked 3rd.
  • Defensively Newcastle away have conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match (8th) from 15.8 (9th) total shots and 4.8 (7th) shots on target.

Verdict

The cumulative rainfall prediction for Brisbane from Thursday to Saturday is 43-125mm. It may lead to poor conditions which is a concern but if not I think there will be plenty of goals, probably will be anyway. Once again I can see the Jets counter-attack style being very effective noting their only 2 losses of the season away were to Sydney and Victory.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 at 1.5+ for 2 units

 BACK – Newcastle draw no bet at 1.85+ for 1 unit

Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United

Saturday 24 Feburary 7:50pm – AAMI Park

Match Overview

Victory lost at home again last round (9th February), going down 1-2 to Brisbane. They since drew at home and lost away in the ACL, frankly they were not great in either ACL match. Coach Kevin Muscat keeps threatening changes seemingly however, he has little confidence in his bench as he has yet to act upon his threats.

Adelaide have lost just 1 of their last 7 but, would have been disappointed not to beat Central Coast at home last week. There was conjecture over the red-card to Ersan Gulum last week, on balance of opinion it was a red-card, albeit a soft one. He misses this match now through suspension which is a loss but Johan Absolonsen returns to the squad.

Key Statistics

  • Victory have won 2 of 10 home games losing 5 and drawing 3. 6 of 10 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Victory at home have scored an average of 1.2 goals per match (6th) from 12.5 (7th) total shots and 3.9 (7th) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 31% of shots on target is ranked 5th.
  • Defensively Victory at home have conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match (6th) from 11.8 (7th) total shots and 3.9 (5th) shots on target.
  • Adelaide have won 5 of 10 away games losing 2 and drawing 3. 6 of 10 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Adelaide away have scored an average of 1.3 goals per match (7th) from 14.7 (1st) total shots and 4.7 (4th) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 28% of shots on target is ranked 8th.
  • Defensively Adelaide away have conceded an average of 1.3 goals per match (2nd) from 10.4 (1st) total shots and 3.9 (3rd) shots on target.

Verdict

Victory are either just not that good, or just can’t find their rhythm. Their supporters are getting on their backs with the home performances and I just can’t have them as such strong favourites.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Victory up to a price of 2.3 for a risk of 3 units.

Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers

Sunday 25 February 6:30pm – Allianz Stadium

Match Overview

The last “Allianz Derby” as it has been coined with the impending re-build to turn Sydney into nomads like their cross-town rivals. Peak A-League organisation with the match on a Sunday night at 7pm, perfect for, well, no one. Anyway, that’s just all politics!
Sydney were mesmerising in their latest A-League match winning 4-0 at City. They have then copped a loss and a draw in their first two ACL matches including in China midweek. Coach Graham Arnold has had the luxury of playing virtually the same 11 all season and I doubt he changes much up for this match although he must replace right back Luke Wilkshire. Their home record since the start of season 2016/17 Played 23 Won 17 Drawn 6 lost 0.

Western Sydney have picked their season up, due in no small part to the addition of Chris Ikonomidis. They are without only Josh Risdon here. They are looking to consolidate their place in the top 6 but will be up against it.

Key Statistics

  • Sydney have won 7 of 10 home games losing 0 and drawing 3. 8 of 10 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Sydney at home have scored an average of 2.8 goals per match (1st) from 15.2 (4th) total shots and 7.2 (1st) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 39% of shots on target is ranked 1st.
  • Defensively Sydney at home have conceded an average of 1 goal per match (2nd) from 9.6 (2nd) total shots and 3.2 (3rd) shots on target.
  • Western Sydney have won 3 of 11 away games losing 3 and drawing 5. 4 of 11 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Western Sydney away have scored an average of 1.2 goals per match (8th) from 9.5 (9th) total shots and 3.4 (8th) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 35% of shots on target is ranked 6th.
  • Defensively Western Sydney away have conceded an average of 1.5 goals per match (7th) from 15.7 (8th) total shots and 5.7 (9th) shots on target.

Verdict

Sydney are better than Western Sydney. The price may look short or a “derby” but I think it is still value. Of course, Sydney need to travel back from China which is difficult. If they can do that ok then they will win.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sydney -1 on the Asian Handicap Markets at 1.8+ for 2 units


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