Western Sydney Wanderers v Newcastle

Friday 16 Feburary 7:50pm – ANZ Stadium

Match Overview

Western Sydney went on a scoring spree against Wellington thanks, largely, to the impact of new recruit, right winger Chris Ikonomidis. Their attacking output of 34 total shots and 11 shots on target against a season average of 15.8 total shots and 4.5 shots on target speaks to the dominance. However, as I have said, it is difficult to measure the paucity of the Phoenix defence.

I think the week off came at a perfect time for the Jets. My match notes had them showing signs of being a little flat over the previous 4 or 5 matches despite still picking up some good results. The week off can invariably cause teams to be a little slow out of the blocks but I expect the Jets to be on-song. They do lose Ben Kantarovski and Ivan Vujica but regain Joe Champness and Daniel Georgevski.

Key Statistics

  • Western Sydney have won 3 of 8 home games losing 3 and drawing 2. 6 of 8 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Western Sydney at home have scored an average of 1.4 goals per match (4th) from 17.4 (1st) total shots and 4.9 (4th) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 28% of shots on target is ranked 9th.
  • Defensively Western Sydney at home have conceded an average of 1.9 goals per match (9th) from 13.6 (10th) total shots and 6.1 (10th) shots on target.
  • Newcastle have won 4 of 8 away matches, losing 2 and drawing 2. 8 of 8 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Newcastle away have scored an average of 2.1 goals per match (2nd) from 11 (6th) total shots and 4.6 (4th) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 46% (league average 33%) of shots on target is ranked 1st.
  • Defensively Newcastle away have conceded an average of 1.5 goals per match (8th) from 15.6 (7th) total shots and 4.8 (7th) shots on target.

Verdict

I expect goals in this. The Jets conversion rate is extremely high and at some point, it may revert to the mean but they have just a perfect set-up as an away team. Not much between them in the result market.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Back over 2.5 at 1.5+ for 3 units

Wellington v Perth

Saturday 17 Feburary 5:35pm – Westpac Stadium

Match Overview

Incredibly Wellington have conceded 8 goals in their last two matches to Sydney and Western Sydney. They have faced 18 shots on target and managed just 3. It was only round’s 15-17 that they looked to have turned a corner with wins over Newcastle and Victory and an unfortunate draw to Western Sydney. Keeper Lewis Italiano has been dropped after a poor match last week. This should allow Keegan Smith to return to goal, and whilst he is a work in progress he does have a bit of fire in his belly and it may help spark them up. Importantly Roy Krishna is also back. The question is how much mental damage has been inflicted in the last few weeks.

Perth, for one of the first times all season are near enough to full strength. They have managed only 1 win in their last 7 matches, losing the other 6. Their defence is still a work in progress but at least they have been quite competitive over the last month.

Key Statistics

  • Wellington have won 2 of 9 home games losing 4 and drawing 3. 6 of 9 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Wellington at home have scored an average of 1.8 goals per match (3rd) from 15.3 (3rd) total shots and 4.9 (3rd) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 36% of shots on target is ranked 3rd.
  • Defensively Wellington at home have conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match (10th) from 11.8 (7th) total shots and 5 (8th) shots on target.
  • Perth have won 2 of 11 away games losing 1 and drawing 8. 9 of 11 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Perth away have scored an average of 1.4 goals per match (6th) from 10.6 (7th) total shots and 3.6 (7th) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 38% of shots on target is ranked 4th.
  • Defensively Perth away have conceded an average of 2.5 goals per match (10th) from 15.8 (9th) total shots and 6.7 (10th) shots on target

Verdict

I expect plenty of goals here with two teams desperate to resuscitate failing seasons.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.4+ for 2.5 units

 BACK – Over 3.5 goals at 2.1+ for 1 unit

Adelaide v Central Coast

Saturday 17 Feburary 7:50pm – Coopers Stadium

Match Overview

Excluding the 0-5 loss to City 3 matches ago Adelaide have been progressing reasonably well. They will look to unveil new striker Dzenkis Cavusevic. His career goals to game ratio is not strong and he has been finding it difficult to get game time it the Swiss top flight with FC Zurich but if he can find some goals they can continue to improve.

Central Coast have been deceiving this season, after winning 3 in 4 between rounds 6 and 9 and despite picking up 4 from a possible 6 points v Sydney they are 2nd last with just 16 points. Wout Brama is suspended and Antony Golec injured however captain Alan Baro, Connor Pain and Josh Rose all return

Key Statistics

  • Adelaide have won 3 of 9 home games losing 4 and drawing 2. 4 of 9 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Adelaide at home have scored an average of 1 goal per match (7th) from 14.9 (5th) total shots and 3.2 (9th) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 31% of shots on target is ranked 5th.
  • Defensively Adelaide at home have conceded an average of 2.1 goals per match (9th) from 14.9 (10th) total shots and 6.9 (10th) shots on target.
  • Central Coast have won 1 of 9 away games losing 4 and drawing 4. 3 of 9 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Central Coast away have scored an average of 1 goal per match (9th) from 10.2 (8th) total shots and 4.1 (6th) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 24% of shots on target is ranked 9th.
  • Defensively Central Coast away have conceded an average of 1.2 goals per match (2nd) from 10.6 (2nd) total shots and 4.2 (4th) shots on target.

Verdict

Both teams have struggled for goals and attacking output whilst keeping it reasonably tight at the back. The under has been posted at odds against which looks incorrect. The low expected goals leads me to take a small risk against Adelaide at the short price.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 goals for 2 units at 1.85+

 LAY – Adelaide up to 2.0 for a risk of 1 unit


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