Sydney FC v Wellington Pheonix

Friday 2 February 7:50pm – Allianz Arena

Match Overview

Sydney bounced off a couple of poor performances to totally dominate Melbourne Victory despite having to come from a goal down to win. They miss Brandon O’Neill who has started every match this season and he is a big loss to their defensive stability.

Wellington had a mini-recovery picking up seven points from three matches before losing at home to Adelaide. They were struck a body blow prior to the match with Roy Krishna ruled out. That body blow became a mortal wound when Andrija Kaluderovic was subbed off in the 58th minute. Those players miss again this week and to put that into perspective Those two players and the departed Dario Vidosic account for 16 of their 22 goals this season.

Key Statistics

  • Sydney have won six of nine home games losing zero and drawing three. Seven of nine have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Sydney at home have scored an average of 2.7 goals per match (first) from 15.3 (second) total shots and 7.2 (first) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 37% of shots on target is ranked second.
  • Defensively Sydney at home have conceded an average of 1.1 goals per match (third) from 9.9 (third) total shots and 3.3 (fourth) shots on target.
  • Wellington have won one of eight away games losing five and drawing two. Four of eight have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Wellington away have scored an average of 0.8 goals per match (tenth) from 12.8 (second) total shots and 3.8 (seventh) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 20% of shots on target is ranked tenth.
  • Defensively Wellington away have conceded an average of 1.5 goals per match (fifth) from 11.1 (fourth) total shots and four (fourth) shots on target.

Verdict

As noted Sydney miss a key defensive midfielder which could make them susceptible, but Wellington are without two of their biggest attacking threats. They will be heavily reliant on Nathan Burns and Matija Ljujic but that may be a bridge too far.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sydney to win to nil for 1 unit at 2.1+

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals for 1.5 units at 1.5+

Newcastle Jets v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 3 February 5:30pm – McDonald Jones Stadium

Match Overview

Newcastle bounced back from the shock loss to Wellington to pick up a point away to Melbourne City, thanks to a bit of luck and some excellent last-ditch defending. There last four or five games now have been slightly down on where they were, but they are boosted with the return of Roy O’Donovan to the bench and with Pato Rodriguez looking good they will look to be peaking coming into the championship run.

Victory miss both Jason Geria (suspended) and Mark Milligain (transferred). I’m no huge fan of Jason Geria but with a makeshift middle of defence with Leigh Broxham playing as one of the central defenders and now losing their right back and one of their holding midfielders it will be difficult for the Victory defensively. On top of that they were dominated by Sydney last week but in a boost, they get star man Leroy George back into the squad.

Key Statistics

  • Newcastle have won six of 10 home games losing two and drawing two. Seven of 10 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Newcastle at home have scored an average of 2.2 goals per match (second) from 16.2 (first) total shots and 6.6 (second) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 33% of shots on target is ranked fourth.
  • Defensively Newcastle at home have conceded an average of one goal per match (second) from 8.9(first) total shots and 3.2 (second) shots on target.
  • Victory have won five of nine away matches, losing two and drawing two. Six of nine have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Victory away have scored an average of 1.8 goals per match (third) from 11.7 (fourth) total shots and five (second) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 36% of shots on target is ranked sixth.
  • Defensively Victory away have conceded an average of 1.3 goals per match (fourth) from 18.2 (tenth) total shots and 4.4 (seventh) shots on target.

Verdict

Newcastle can thank their incredible conversion rate for their away form, the league average is 34%. Their defensive stats are not as strong as City, nor the other contenders but not poor. They setup well as an away team due to their natural counter attacking style. The result market looks tough to call but I’m banking on goals in this one.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle for 2 units at 2.0+

Adelaide United v Perth Glory

Saturday 3 February 7:50pm – Coopers Stadium

Match Overview

Adelaide were outsiders but managed to upset Wellington away last week. It was a good result for them, particularly as still down on troops and after they copped the 0-5 loss to City the previous round. Captain Isais returns from suspension to strengthen the team.

Perth were gifted their win last week when the Wanderers had Keanu Baccus sent off in the seventh minute at the same time as conceding a penalty. They have plenty of quality players but have never really found a settled line-up this season. Alex Grant and Mitch Nichols come back in along with Marc Warren who may be a straight swap for the suspended Joe Mills.

Key Statistics

  • Adelaide have won two of eight home games losing four and drawing two. Three of eight have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Adelaide at home have scored an average of 0.9 goals per match (tenth) from 15 (fourth) total shots and three (ninth) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 29% of shots on target is ranked eighth.
  • Defensively Adelaide at home have conceded an average of 1.1 goals per match (fourth) from 10.5 (fifth) total shots and 4.5 (seventh) shots on target.
  • Perth have won two of 10 away games losing seventh and drawing one. Eight of 10 have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Perth away have scored an average of 1.4 goals per match (fifth) from 10.3 (seventh) total shots and 3.7 (eighth) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 38% of shots on target is ranked fourth.
  • Defensively Perth away have conceded an average of 2.6 goals per match (tenth) from 16 (ninth) total shots and 6.9 (tenth) shots on target.

Verdict

Adelaide keep picking up points and are well entrenched in the top-6 at the moment. Perth have been inconsistent, mostly due to personnel issues. At their best though Perth can be very difficult to beat and Adelaide have been beaten in similar circumstances as heavy home favourites already this season.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Adelaide for a risk of 2 units at 2.0 or less


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