Melbourne City v Newcastle Jets

Thursday 25 January 7:50pm – AAMI Park

Match Overview

Melbourne City are unbeaten in their last four matches after demolishing Adelaide 5-0 last week. The fact that three of the goals came late was only to affirm the dominance they had. They have seemingly found a system that is getting the best out of attacking weapons Ross McCormack, Dario Vidosic and Marcin Budzinski and all 3-look set to start, it is certainly going to be interesting when Bruno Fornaroli returns in the coming weeks.

The Jets were a little down on their season form again last week and as noted prior, primed for the upset they copped losing 2-3 at home to Wellington. They were not poor by any means and are still a quality team on their day, but they still miss Ronny Vargas and Roy O’Donovan.

Key Statistics

  • City have won five of nine home games losing three and drawing one. Three of eight have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively City at home have scored an average of 1.4 goals per match (second) from 11.6 (seventh) total shots and 4.3 (fourth) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 33% of shots on target is ranked fourth.
  • Defensively City at home have conceded an average of 0.8 goals per match (second) from 10 (third) total shots and three (second) shots on target.
  • Newcastle have won four of seven away matches, losing two and drawing one. Seven of seven have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Newcastle away have scored an average of 2.1 goals per match (first) from 10.7 (sixth) total shots and 4.4 (third) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 48% of shots on target is ranked first.
  • Defensively Newcastle away have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match (fifth) from 14.3 (seventh) total shots and 4.3 (sixth) shots on target.

Verdict

Newcastle can thank their incredible conversion rate for their away form, the league average is 34%. Their defensive stats are not as strong as City, nor the other contenders but not poor. They setup well as an away team due to their natural counter attacking style. The result market looks tough to call but I’m banking on goals in this one.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 2.5 goals for 2 units at 1.7+

Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC

Friday 26 January 7:50pm – AAMI Park

Match Odds

Match Overview

Victory have won four of their last six giving them the confidence that they are peaking coming into the last third of the season starting with the “Big Blue” derby this week. Besart Berisha has been down on his finishing but added an impressive assist last week. In Leroy George they have the assist king with 11 this season, five clear of the rest of the league. Kosta Barbarouses is also in fine form. All that said their last two wins were against Perth and Western Sydney, hardly benchmarks, and it was only 4 weeks ago they were booed off after struggling to a draw against the Mariners.

Sydney come into this off back to back draws against Adelaide and the Mariners. Both opposition were down on troops and Sydney had their chances to win both games but were poor. There was talk of a virus in the team prior to the Mariners match. Interestingly they were similarly poor when losing to the Mariners in Round 6. They bounced straight back with a comfortable win over the Jets after that loss and they will certainly lift a few gears for this big grudge match, they will need to.

Key Statistics

  • Victory have won two of eight home games losing three and drawing three. Four of eight have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Victory at home have scored an average of 1.3 goals per match (fifth) from 12.1 (sixth) total shots and 4.3 (fifth) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 29% of shots on target is ranked sixth.
  • Defensively Victory at home have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match (fifth) from 12 (seventh) total shots and 3.8 (fifth) shots on target.
  • Sydney have won six of eight away games losing one and drawing one. Three of eight have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Sydney away have scored an average of 1.9 goals per match (second) from 11.6 (fourth) total shots and 4.4 (fourth) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 43% of shots on target is ranked second.
  • Defensively Sydney away have conceded an average of 0.4 goals per match (first) from 10 (first) total shots and 2.1 (first) shots on target.

Verdict

Victory are improving, and they may be getting Sydney on a downward trend, however that is to lean completely on their last couple of respective games, more widely Sydney are still the superior team on all my markers.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Sydney Draw No Bet for 1.5 units at 1.8+

Wellington Phoenix v Adelaide United

Saturday 27 January 5:35pm – Westpac Stadium

Match Overview

Wellington are on the rise, well their form is on the rise, they however are still last on the table. They are going to make a run at the top 6 and be very difficult to beat for the rest of the season. The win at Newcastle, did me a favour, and was anything but a fluke. They still have defensive concerns but have plenty of goals in them.

Adelaide were a rabble against City. Given Sydney were similarly poor against Central Coast perhaps the home draw to Sydney the previous week took it out of both teams. I thought they would do well against City but with the loss of Ryan Kitto, still no Johan Absolonsen and several other absentees they were no match albeit they had two clear one on one’s that should have been converted.

Key Statistics

  • Wellington have won two of eight home games losing three and drawing three. Six of eight have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Wellington at home have scored an average of two goals per match (third) from 16.3 (first) total shots and 5.3 (third) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 38% of shots on target is ranked first.
  • Defensively Wellington at home have conceded an average of 2.4 goals per match (tenth) from 11.8 (sixth) total shots and 5.1 (ninth) shots on target.
  • Adelaide have won four of nine away games losing three and drawing two. Six of nine have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Adelaide away have scored an average of 1.3 goals per match (fifth) from 15 (first) total shots and 4.8 (second) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 28% of shots on target is ranked eighth.
  • Defensively Adelaide away have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match (sixth) from 10.7 (third) total shots and 4.1 (fourth) shots on target.

Verdict

On many markers both these teams are arguably under-performing. Wellington seem to have hit their stride in attack but still struggle in defence. Despite last week Adelaide would be a force if they could pick up a top line striker. Goals look assured and Wellington can continue to gather momentum for a late run at the Top 6.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Wellington for 2 units at 2.1+

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 2.5 goals for 1.5 units at 1.6+


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