Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix

Saturday 20 January 5:35pm – McDonald Jones Stadium

Match Overview

The Jets were once again a little flat in their win over the Roar after the lacklustre performance v the Mariners, but at the end of the day they have picked up two wins at home and get the luxury of a third week straight at home. They regain Ben Kantarovski for this match and assuming Joey Champness is available after international duty they will be at full strength bar long term casualties Roy O’Donovan and Ronald Vargas.

Wellington should have won at home to the Wanderers after dominating, particularly in the second half. I commented last week that they were good value since I thought Nathan Burns would start. After he and Matija Ljujic had another stellar 45 minutes last week they will surely be unleashed from the start this week. Despite picking up just the two wins for the season and sitting last on the table they have been in reasonable form the last few weeks.

Key Statistics

  • Newcastle have won six of eight home games losing just one and drawing 2. 6 of 9 have been over 2.5 goals and 13 of 16 overall have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Newcastle at home have scored an average of 2.2 goals per match (second) from 16.8 (first) total shots and 6.7 (second) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 33% of shots on target has slipped to fourth
  • Defensively Newcastle at home have conceded an average of 0.9 goals per match (first) from 8.5 (first) total shots and three (third) shots on target.
  • Wellington have yet to win in seven away games drawing two.
  • Offensively Wellington away have scored an average of 0.4 goals per match (tenth) from 13.4 (second) total shots and 3.6 (eighth) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 12% of shots on target is ranked 10th.
  • Defensively Wellington away have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match (fifth) from 11.1 (fourth) total shots and 3.7 (second) shots on target.

Verdict

I noted last week that Wellington are on the improve, they didn’t get the result but in terms of expected goals should have won the match easily. You can note from the statistics that their main issue is their conversion rate. With the quality they now have in the attacking third I expect that to revert closer to the mean of the competition, which makes them a tougher proposition they have been in the season to date. Newcastle are still going strongly also but there is no doubt they are hanging out for the return of one or both their strikers.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Newcastle for a risk of 2 units up to 1.9

Melbourne City v Adelaide United

Sunday 21 January 7:00pm – AAMI Park

Match Overview

City did well to come away with a point after going down to 10 men early at the Mariners. Ross McCormack was on target again and seldom seen marquee Marcin Budzinski produced a handy cameo appearance capped with a nice long-range strike late on. They will still be concerned with the way they have conceded goals of late, from set-pieces and defensive errors.

Adelaide overcame the absence of up to 10 squad players to earn a hard-fought draw at home to Sydney. They were on the back foot for periods and in truth on any other day Sydney might have had a couple but that is to underplay the doggedness of their display. They lack a cutting edge up front of the top teams but will be a formidable opponent if they can ever get all their players fit at the one time.

Key Statistics

  • City have won four of eight home games losing three and drawing one. Two of eight have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively City at home have scored an average of 1 goal per match (sixth) from 11.3 (seventh) total shots and 4.1 (fifth) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 24% of shots on target is ranked ninth.
  • Defensively City at home have conceded an average of 0.9 goals per match (second) from 10.4 (third) total shots and 4.1 (fifth) shots on target.
  • Adelaide have won two of eight away games losing two and drawing four.
  • Offensively Adelaide away have scored an average of 1.5 goals per match (fifth) from 16 (first) total shots and 4.9 (first) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 31% of shots on target is ranked eighth.
  • Defensively Adelaide away have conceded an average of one goal per match (second) from 10.3 (second) total shots and 3.9 (fourth) shots on target.

Verdict

Adelaide have very strong away stats and City are, offensively at least, not one of the strongest home teams. The variance in price is too much and with a few players expected back I think Adelaide can continue to climb the table.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – City for a risk of 3 units up to 2.2


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