Newcastle Jets v Brisbane Roar

Friday 12 January 7:50pm – McDonald Jones Stadium

Match Overview

The Jets were a little flat in their win over Central Coast Mariners, understandable coming off the big showdown with Sydney. They still managed a way to win the game, helped by an opposition red card, but nonetheless they got away with it and weren’t at their best. New signing Patricio Rodriguez looked skillful and capped his debut with a goal. He certainly doesn’t go for the simple pass so will be rocks and diamonds with him.

Brisbane are just starting to get the troops back. Eric Bautheac returned against Sydney and looked good in limited time. Matt McKay and Avram Papadopoulos return from suspension. They are improving but are still a long way off the pace.

Key Statistics

  • Newcastle have won five of eight home games losing just one and drawing two. Six of eight have been over 2.5 goals and 13 of 15 overall have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Newcastle at home have scored an average of 2.4 goals per match (second) from 16.6 (first) total shots and 6.8 (second) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 35% of shots on target is ranked second.
  • Defensively Newcastle at home have conceded an average of 0.9 goals per match (first) from 8.5 (first) total shots and three (third) shots on target.
  • Brisbane have won two of six away games losing three and drawing one.
  • Offensively Brisbane away have scored an average of 1.5 goals per match (fifth) from 9.5 (tenth) total shots and 3.7 (eighth) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 41% of shots on target is ranked third.
  • Defensively Brisbane away have conceded an average of 1.7 goals per match (ninth) from 13.3 (fifth) total shots and 4.2 (fifth) shots on target.

Verdict

Brisbane are slowly, very slowly on the improve but I can’t see them troubling the Jets at home. Brisbane have pulled off a few shocks away but mostly due to good fortune and a high conversion rate which is unsustainable. They simply don’t create enough chances.

Betting Strategy

*Three units max bet

 BACK – Newcastle -0.75 in the Asian Handicap market for 1.5 units at 1.9+

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals for 1.5 unit at 1.6+

Wellington Phoenix v Western Sydney Wanderers

Saturday 13 January 5:35pm – Westpac Stadium

Match Overview

Wellington were aided by an early Victory send-off and going behind before winning 2-1 at home. They have every player available and I would suspect Nathan Burns might be unleashed from the start here after being very impressive in his brief cameo appearances so far.

Western Sydney were impressive in patches against an Adelaide team missing a batch of top line players. They settled for a 1-1 draw. The match may have been most notable for the odd substitutions made by coach Josep Gombau, I couldn’t quite understand the changes and they were a rabble by the finish of the match. Despite a couple of recent wins they still don’t convince. They back up from Wednesday, the same day as Wellington but with the obvious travel in between. They also lose Robbie Cornthwaite and Chis Herd from their Starting 11.

Key Statistics

  • Wellington have won two of seven home games losing three and drawing two. Six of seven have been over 2.5 goals.
  • Offensively Wellington at home have scored an average of 2.1 goals per match (third) from 15.3 (fourth) total shots and five (third) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 43% of shots on target is ranked first.
  • Defensively Wellington at home have conceded an average of 2.6 goals per match (tenth) from 12.1 (sixth) total shots and 5.3 (ninth) shots on target.
  • Western Sydney have won two of eight away games losing two and drawing four.
  • Offensively Western Sydney away have scored an average of 1.1 goals per match (eighth) from 10 (ninth) total shots and 3.5 (tenth) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 32% of shots on target is ranked seventh.
  • Defensively Western Sydney away have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match (fourth) from 14.3 (seventh) total shots and 5.5 (ninth) shots on target.

Verdict

Wellington are a team that can be tough to catch however I am not convinced of Western Sydney despite a couple of recent wins.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Wellington for 2 units at 2.3+

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals for 1 unit at 1.6+

Melbourne Victory v Perth Glory

Saturday 13 January 7:50pm – AAMI Park

Match Overview

The Victory went down to Wellington on Wednesday night after losing Rhys Williams early thanks to a VAR-inspired Red Card. They had plenty of opportunities even with 10 men. But despite that they have now failed to put away Central Coast and Wellington in consecutive matches. They must deal with the suspension of Williams and the travel back from Wellington.

Perth were dreadful in their losses to Sydney and Adelaide but were at least competitive against City. Still they have now conceded 11 without reply in their last three losses. Perth regain Shane Lowry and Mitch Nichols to the squad which is a significant boost.

Key Statistics

  • Victory have won one of seven home games losing three and drawing three.
  • Offensively Victory at home have scored an average of one goal per match (fifth) from 11.3 (sixth) total shots and 3.6 (sixth) shots on target. Their home conversion rate of 28% of shots on target is ranked seventh.
  • Defensively Victory at home have conceded an average of 1.3 goals per match (fourth) from 12.7 (eighth) total shots and 3.9 (fifth) shots on target.
  • Perth have won two of eight away games losing five and drawing one.
  • Offensively Perth away have scored an average of 1.3 goals per match (seventh) from 10.6 (seventh) total shots and 3.8 (seventh) shots on target. Their away conversion rate of 33% of shots on target is ranked sixth.
  • Defensively Perth away have conceded an average of 2.5 goals per match (tenth) from 16.1 (ninth) total shots and 6.9 (tenth) shots on target.

Verdict

Perth’s stats away from home are not great but the Victory have been very poor at home this season and if they are slow to start the crowd will start to get on their back.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth +1.0 in the Asian Handicap market for 1.5 units at 1.9+

 LAY – Victory in the result market for a risk of 1.5 units at 1.65 or less


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