Brisbane v Wellington

Saturday 9 December 5:35pm – CBUS Super Stadium

Match Overview

An under-strength Brisbane were too good for a very disappointing Wanderers last week winning 2-0. They are slowly building into the season and with troops on the verge of returning will be much improved over the next 5 or 6 weeks.

Wellington threw away a 2-goal lead at home to the Victory to eventually go down 2-3. In truth the Victory were unlucky to be behind and could have had half a dozen by full time. They also led Brisbane 3-0 earlier in the season only to draw 3-3. They must do without Michael McGlinchey and Roy Krishna two of their best.

Key Statistics

  • In the last 7 matches between these teams there have been an average of 3.4 goals. The last 2 matches have seen 6 and 7 goals
  • Brisbane won 7 of 13 home matches last season but have won just 1 of 4 this season (mostly due to injuries)
  • Wellington have lost all 3 away matches this season and had lost 17 of their previous 27 away matches
  • In Brisbane’s 9 matches this season 5 have finished over 2.5 goals
  • In Wellington’s 8 matches this season 6 have finished over 2.5 goals and 5 over 3.5 goals

Verdict

Wellington are on their knees and whilst Brisbane are still severely undermanned they should be able to get away with this one. I expect plenty of goals on a perfect surface at the “neutral” CBUS Super Stadium on the Gold Coast.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 goals for 1.5 units at 1.5+ (max bet 3 units)

 BACK – Over 3.5 goals for 0.5 units at 2.3+

 BACK – Brisbane to win for 1.5 units at 1.8+

Western Sydney Wanderers v Sydney

Saturday 9 December 7:50pm – ANZ Stadium

Match Overview

Nothing went right for Western Sydney last week. They went into the game without Robbie Cornthwaite then lost Oriol Riera after 19 minutes and Josh Sotirio after 35 mins before a sucker punch right on half time made it 1-0 to the Roar. They were unable to recover and quite poor in the second half.

Sydney did what Sydney do last week. Their clinical nature enabled them to withstand some Adelaide pressure before prevailing 1-0. They get Milos Ninkovic and Matt Simon back and bar the long-term absentee Rhyan Grant, they are at full strength.

Key Statistics

  • Sydney have won 27 of their previous 36 matches and lost just 2
  • Sydney have conceded 8 goals from 24 shots faced and kept 4 clean sheets. Easily the number 1 ranked team in each stat
  • Western Sydney have scored 9 goals from 28 shots both clearly ranked 10th in the league
  • Western Sydney have conceded 12 goals (ranked 6th) from 44 shots faced (ranked 9th)

Verdict

Sydney will be too strong in this one, but it may be tight and take some time.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sydney to win at 1.7+ for 2.5 units

Perth v Newcastle

Saturday 9 December 10:00pm – NIB Stadium

Match Overview

Perth are missing 5 arguably 6 first 11 players including their strike force of Keogh, Taggart and Castro. They were poor in their last home match to the Victory and despite beating City away, were average at best in their away loss to the Mariners.

Newcastle had enough chances to beat City last week before falling to a 1-2 loss, courtesy more of poor defending than brilliant attack from City on the back of conceding a poor penalty.

They welcome back Roy O’Donovan and whilst Andrew Nabbout was a handy replacement up front Roy will be far more dangerous.

Key Statistics

  • Perth have scored 11 goals (ranked 8th) from 35 shots (ranked 5th)
  • Perth have conceded 16 goals (ranked 9th) from 42 shots faced (ranked 8th)
  • Newcastle have scored 21 goals from 58 shots on target, both clearly ranked 1st
  • Newcastle have conceded 11 goals ranked equal 3rd from 30 shots faced (ranked 2nd)

Verdict

Perth are traditionally hard to beat at home but are really suffering under an injury curse. Newcastle are genuine contenders and look a good price to win, even on the road.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle at 2.4+ to win for 1.5 units.


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