How to Swing Trade on Betfair Exchange

We’ve teamed up with one of the world’s leading educational Betfair traders, Caan Berry, to provide you with a comprehensive how-to guide.

In this addition to his series, he dives into why third party betting tools are a must for any serious trader.

The right tools and know-how can streamline your betting experience.

In this article he explains why – whilst showing you how and where to get started with Betfair Trading software.

For more on Caan Berry, check out his website HERE.

Swing Trading

Finding a successful swing trading strategy can be difficult, especially if you don’t understand all the variable conditions and indicators that exchange betting presents.

This article is here to give you a rolling start. I’ll explain the basic understanding, indicators and concepts that are closely aligned effective swing trading. By the end, you’ll have a good idea if it’s something you wish to peruse further

Swing Trading on the Australian Exchange

In most sports, it’s not unusual to witness big shifts in price. Like when key players are injured in football, or if a horse is sweating up badly before the start of a race.

Betfair traders often refer to these changes as a swing in price, hence the slang term – swing trading.

Swing trading is one of the most desirable strengths to master, if you can regularly anticipate a big move.

The logic is simple – more price movement means a bigger profit margin.

How much you can make depends on bet size, the difference in price and commission level. To put things into context, a $50 trade on a small swing between 4.0 and 3.5 would offer you $7.15 profit before commission.

Assuming you’re on the maximum rate of 5% commission, take-home would be $6.79.

Pretty cool, right?

How To Swing Trade On Betfair

To find a successful swing trading opportunity there needs to be a solid reason. As mentioned under the previous heading, something significant that will change the situation and the probability of the odds reflecting it.

You can do this a couple of different ways. Reacting to key information fast is one of the most popular approaches, however, you’re not likely to be alone doing this.

Another way would be to assess market sentiment. Reading the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ with the help of tools like Betfair Trading Software. Their streaming charts and information can make market analysis far easier, and quicker.

Or if you’re that way inclined – forming your own opinion through price modelling.

Once you have a good reason, it’s just a case of placing the respective back and lay bets.

Example Trade

If you’re a little unsure, here’s a quick example of a previous swing trade on Betfair Australia’s exchange.

This swing trade is shown in the 02.20 race at Sandown (AUS).

Unsure of how that happened?

Our two bets are shared below:

  • Back bet of $250 at a price of 3.10.
  • Lay bet $272.89 at a price of 2.84.

If Silent Roar should win, we gain $525 from the back bet, but lose $502.12 from the lay bet – leaving a profit of $22.88.

If Silent Roar should lose, we gain $272.89 from the lay bet, but lose $250 from the back bet – leaving a profit of $22.89.

My trading software did all the numbers for me, another reason it’s worth trying out.

Swing Trading Strategies

It’s not often you see a key player get injured or a horse sweat up badly I know, so here are a few more thoughts about where you can build up some swing trading strategies.

Changes in Time

By understanding the important time-frames and betting routine for the sport you wish to trade, you’re closer to having an edge. For example, in racing, there are morning shows hours before the live-show leading down to the race start. What changes between the two? Why?

News Releases

When something changes, so does the price. For this reason, this is probably the most obvious angle to many. Team sheets before a soccer match? Late withdrawals in racing? Weather in tennis?

Focus on news releases, where you can get the earliest updates and know when they’re coming and you’re already ahead of most.

Money Talks

Saving the best until last, as they say – ‘money talks’. In the betting markets, there’s never a truer word spoken. Seeing traded volumes and money that’s being put down is always going to better than a pundits opinion. Following and reacting to live money flowing into the market is the most reliable source to build a swing trading strategy around.

Swinging Your Way?

Right now your mind’s probably flooded with thoughts about places and reasons you can find a swing in price. However, swing trading is one of the more difficult trading disciplines to master. It’s far from impossible, but before you dive in feet-first I’d recommend reading all the other trading content here on Betfair Australia’s hub.

If you’re genuinely interested in swing trading, it’s worth checking out all 3 of the articles linked below.

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