How to Promo Arb the Australian Open

What’s a 1 in 20 chance at $1200 worth to you?

$100?  $50? $20?

In this article we’ll walk you through the process of matched betting using one example of a bookmaker promotion available during the Australian Open. Sharing a simple matched betting technique where you can risk $20 for a 1 in 20 chance at $1200?  Massive Overs.

Whenever a large sporting event takes place corporate bookmakers will offer promotions to get you to deposit and bet with them rather than any of their competitors. The Australian Open is no exception.

If you are sharp then you can use these promotions and Betfair to give yourself an advantage in a process called matched betting.


Matched Betting

Betfair has already released some golden information regarding matched betting (or promo arbing as its sometimes known) and guides such as this can help even the most novice punter take advantage of the generous sign up bonuses available. If you haven’t already signed up to all the bookmakers in Australia and taken advantage of their signup offers, then generating low risk profits from these is a great way to cash in. But once you’ve done that the profit doesn’t need to end.


Daily Australian Open Offers

While some promotions will be offered throughout the tournament many will only get released on the day games are played. You could visit each bookies site to see if they have any new promotions or simply visit the Aus Open page on Bonus Money

We check the promotion pages twice a day and any promotion that you can gain an edge from; we also list a clearly laid out guide of exactly how to do it. We will also be keeping people up to date with offers in our free matched betting Facebook community.


Example Promotion

Sportsbet are offering to pay your bet out as a winner if your player leads any set by 4 games.

The Maximum amount of stake for this promotion is $500.


How to Gain Value

  1. Find a player who’s odds on Sportsbet closely match the odds at Betfair
  2. Calculate how much to back and lay using a matched betting calculator
  3. Back your player at Sportsbet
  4. Lay your player on Betfair

If the player you back at Sportsbet leads a set at any time during the match by 4 games then they will pay you out as a winner. If they then go on to lose the match you will also win your lay bet at Betfair meaning a double payout. BOOM!


Stats of the Promo Winning

Between 2014 and 2018 in the Australian Open 10.24% of games a player has led by 4 games in a set (4-0, 5-1, 6-2) and then lost the match. This happens slightly more for underdogs than the favourite. For showing this example we will assume though that whomever you bet on has a 5.12% of leading in a set by 4 games but losing the match.


An Example


Possible Outcomes

We can use a Matched Betting Calculator to work out how to get an even result regardless of the outcome

The calculation shows:

Back $500 on Dzumhar at 2.62

Lay $505.79 on Dzumhar at 2.64

Outcome Sportsbet Betfair Overall
Dzumhar wins You win $810 You lose $829.50 You lose $19.50
Dzumhar loses and never leads by 4 in a set You lose $500 You win $480.50* You lose $19.50
Dzumhar loses but leads by 4 in a set You win $810 You win $480.50* You win $1290.50

* $505.79, less $25.28 at 5% commission

Since from the historical data we know that Dzumhar will lead by 4 games in a set but lose on average 5.12% of times then we can quickly calculate how much value there is in placing this bet

As 5.12% of the time we will win $1290.50

And the other 94.88% of the time we will lose $19.50

Therefore the Expected Value is

= ($1290.50 * 0.0512) – ($19.50 * 0.9488)

Expected Value from placing this bet = $47.57

Expected Value is the average amount of money you can expect to make placing the bet if the bet could be repeated many times and the average amount made is calculated.


Tips

  • You need to find a close match between Sportsbet and Betfair odds on your player. If the difference between the odds is greater than 10% then there is little to no value in the bet, and it may turn into negative Expected Value.
  • Based on historic results, there is more value to be had on this promotion by betting on the outsider, and just short of about 1% of matches end in a retirement.
  • As there is only a 1 in 20 chance of this promo hitting for you the more games you get involved in the more chance you have of making an overall profit.

Many Bookies have different retirement rules for the tennis and when matched betting, and you want to ensure you are not going to be out of pocket because of a player retiring.  It’s important to know which bookies can be backed and layed with Betfair, or dutched with each other without running afoul of this situation.

You can see a run down of the tennis retirement rules from the various Australian Bookies here.  In the case of Sportsbet and laying on Betfair, you actually gain an extra edge over the bookie. You may get a double payout if your player retires after the first set.


Conclusion

The Australian Open gives you the opportunity to turn the tables on the corporate bookies and take advantage of their promotions to give you an edge. The Sportsbet offer is one example but most of the major corporate bookmakers are running offers.

Using the Betfair exchange, it’s possible by following simple matched betting methods to gain profit, or bonuses to be turned into profit.


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