Track & Weather 

Forecast: A top of 13c on Sunday with a high (75%) chance of showers during the meeting (1-5mm)

Rail: Out 6.5m 1150m to winning post. Out 3.5m Remainder

Expected going: Heavy 8-9

Pattern: Expect the inside to be a big disadvantage. Riders will look to get wide and towards the outside fence in the straight.

11:38am | 1100m

Pace & Map

Uncertain with five first starters, but looks likely to be below average. Shot Of Irish is on debut with blinkers on from a wide draw, so he’s a likely candidate to push forward and take up the running.

Comment

Impossible to assess these with confidence. Shot of Irish has trial form and the right trainer / jock to be well fancied here, but the market will ultimately provide the best guide.

Runner Rated Price
1. Gee Gees Roughie $17.00
2. Pingu $12.00
3. Shot Of Irish $2.70
4. Thewordsout $6.00
5. Bailees Words $21.00
6. Geegees Cash Cow $14.00
7. Kels Star $11.00
8. Oceania Hope $8.00

Betting Strategy

NIL – Best to pass

12:12pm | 1200m

Pace & Map: Looks above average with horses like Bloomin Late and Plenty of Bling drawn wide, along with plenty of others that like to hold handy positions.

Comment: Flikpix looks a dominant top pick here. Her rating on debut was strong for this race, stamped by some high-quality sectional as she hot the line strongly. She looks better suited up to 1200m with more genuine pace up front and a wide draw on this track is likely to be more of a help than hindrance.

Runner Rated Price
1. King Of Saigon $34.00
2. Odessa Lad $9.00
3. Royal Riches $12.00
4. Vivre Star $51.00
5. Bloomin Late $201.00
6. Fancy Danz $101.00
7. Flikpix $2.20
8. Kamikaze Force $34.00
9. Kasuku $12.00
10. Miss Che Che $34.00
11. Plenty Of Bling $201.00
12. Going Purple $9.00
13. One Before You Go $201.00
14. Powerful Prospect $501.00
15. Mighty Hoffa $501.00
16. Mag Wheels $31.00

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Flikpix

12:50pm | 2100m

Pace & Map: Above average – Looks likely to be a tough staying test in the conditions with a number of potential pace runners drawn middle to wide.

Comment: Bastetani gets to 2100m at just her third career start, but she looks a genuine staying type, brings the best last start rating in the field and has the top jock / trainer in Tasmania. Would prefer if she was drawn wide, but happy to trust the jock to steer the right course.

Runner Rated Price
1. White Hawk $4.00
2. Another Brother $8.00
3. Bastetani $3.30
4. British $26.00
5. Cloudy Bay $26.00
6. Grand Faith $51.00
7. Kingsclere $61.00
8. My Kingdom $51.00
9. Telfi Hero $51.00
10. Trippin Away $12.00
11. Fearless Filou $15.00
12. Coin Toss $67.00
13. Pinkeyes Pride $201.00
14. Berbent $201.00
15. Becerikli $501.00

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Bastetani

1:30pm | 2100m

Pace & Map: Average – This Cat Rocks (6) and Ollies Golf (5) should work across and take up the running.

Comment: Hushama produces her best ratings on Heavy, comes off a super competitive last start rating over 2150 in similar conditions and should be able to get to the outside in the straight. That’s an appealing profile. Hugo has the form credentials to suggest he’s the horse to beat, but Barrier 1 is a disadvantage on this track and he’s a query in heavy ground.

Runner Rated Price
1. Hugo $3.60
2. Ollies Gold $12.00
3. Gold Librettist $16.00
4. This Cat Rocks $14.00
5. Rather Heroic $11.00
6. Hushama $3.50
7. Storm Gust $16.00
8. Northern Soul $14.00

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Hushama

2:10pm | 1200m

Pace & Map: Below Average – Mel Loves Vodka looks the likely leader from the inside, without a great deal of other pressure.

Comment: This is a very tricky race with just about all of the chances having one query or another over them. The ratings profile of Sebring’s Joy is appealing and she’s drawn well for this track, but was plain on Heavy ground last start. No More No Honey is a talented, progressive type that I can easily see being shorter than the price assessed here. She is first up though and drawn inside, which is a concern. Depending on prices, Qui Samer may be a worthy value gamble. Happy to overlook his last start failure over 1000m, as his previous two runs / ratings including one over 1220m on Heavy look right up to this race. He may be a little overlooked here.

Runner Rated Price
1. Sebrings Joy $4.40
2. Matiano $26.00
3. No Money No Honey $3.50
4. Cheers Chappy $18.00
5. Into The Night $51.00
6. Scrutineer $6.00
7. Mel Loves Vodka $31.00
8. Qui Samer $6.50
9. Kellys Diva $26.00

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Qui Samer if clearly better than the assessed price.

2:50pm | 1400m

Pace & Map: Uncertain – Farewell Angelina (5) looks to press forward but those that could apply pressure to create some pace are all emergencies, so scratchings will play a key role.

 Comment: Newts is a lightly raced improving type coming off consistent ratings that put him comfortably on top of this field. He has a habit of missing the start and can get back, but the step out to 1400m and the track pattern on the day is likely to be assisting his style much more than normal.

Runner Rated Price
1. Newts $3.40
2. Mansplaining $14.00
3. Valerius $26.00
4. Clang Thang $21.00
5. Dragonbite $26.00
6. OLoughlin $14.00
7. Special Shot $14.00
8. Farewell Angelina $9.00
9. Rock It Doc $26.00
10. Lyndspur $201.00
11. The Desperate $18.00
12. Only Kiss $201.00
13. Jewels $501.00
14. Our Queenie $201.00
15. Parisian Lush $201.00
16. Agree To $7.00

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Newts

3:26pm | 1000m

Pace & Map: Genuine – Nunivak (2) should be keen to hold the front and also get well enough clear to get away from the inside on turning, so that should ensure he runs along.

Comment: Nunivak was impressive first up, leading all the way to win easily in a rating that puts him clearly on top of this field. He’s only run on Heavy was a 4.5L win over 1200m, so there’s no concerns about him at all in the conditions here. An inside draw is not ideal, but Pires should lead and then head towards the outside on the corner.

Runner Rated Price
1. Love Magic $8.00
2. Angel Of The Abyss $5.00
3. Gee Gee Sun Valley $51.00
4. Nunivak $1.90
5. Concentrate $101.00
6. Seajamm $26.00
7. Tough Missile $21.00
8. Rearview $101.00
9. True Ladys Man $101.00

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Nunivak

4:05pm | 1600m

Pace & Map: Below Average – Give Us A Winner (4) looks the likely leader with Orange River (7) working across to sit outside.

Comment: There’s a few chances here, but leaning towards You Didn’t as the best betting prospect. Two runs this prep have been sound, but the key is getting to 1600m here and on a heavy track, which is the perfect scenario for him to improve to his best form, which will be very hard to beat in this. Trainer, Jockey and wider draw on this track are all positive. It’s a competitive race, but he’s the one with most appeal.

Runner Rated Price
1. Mulleys Idol $11.00
2. You Didn’t $3.30
3. Hirvonen $34.00
4. Orange River $3.70
5. Reanns Diamond $6.00
6. Cols Hero $10.00
7. Glistening Star $34.00
8. Give Us A Winner $61.00

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) You Didn’t


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