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Ten races at Mildura tonight, a venue that is always action-packed and very competitive racing. I have identified 3 races which I have broken down with a full analysis and action plan to attack and aim for a nights profit out of the meet.
Race Map
The most early speed comes for the runners drawn inside barriers in Kensington Maid and Ollies Molly so they may have a brief early battle for the lead. The first starter Rays Daughter in barrier 3 has not been pushed out at all in its two trials and I doubt it will tonight as tended to over race in its first trial when on speed so its second trial it sat out the back and got it to relax early.
Off the back row Winedou has the aggressive Boris Devcic aboard and follows through the speed so see it kicking through early and may even try and keep going and would not be totally shocked if found the lead in the first lap, if that occurred the race totally changes.
Race Summary
A few queries attached to this race with a couple having debut runs for new stables so that always throws some caution to the race. That being said, I am going into this with confidence.
Winnedou has had 5 trials at the track and won them all, on debut 6 weeks ago he got it all wrong at the start so pretty much forget that race, he has trialled well since and with an aggressive drive from Boris I see him getting the advantage over its major rival early then being too good. Rays Daughter is the interesting runner who is well in the market off two good trials, I just rate Winnedou’s trials better when I compare the two and also my map gives my top pick a significant advantage.
Oh So Easy is first up for Reece Moore and trialled ok this track so can improve and a query on Lets Go Exclusive who has poor form but first up for good local trainer Andrew Vozlic.
BACK (WIN) — Winnedou at odds of $2.25 plus
Race Map
Miss Tyler is first up for a new stable so sometimes it is dangerous to assume its previous pattern will be maintained with a new team, so cannot be certain that it will not show much gate speed which has usually been the case in the past. It is important to the map as if it doesn’t have early dash tonight then it looks a very easy lead for Cemetery Bay who I am extremely confident can cross all bar my prior doubts.
Some nice horses off the back row, United would be put into the race if the pace slackens and most likely Blacktop Rock and Surf Ace would be driven with one run to come at them late. SA visitor Sanur Beach usually races best on speed so not confident of what tactics they will employ tonight. So going into this confident that Cemetery Bay will find the top.
Race Summary
Good race but if the map turns out the way I have it then Cemetery Bay will be so hard to run down. Loves the distance and in front, it relaxes well so would need a lot of mid-race pressure or a peak performance by an opponent to beat it.
Big query on Miss Tyler who is first up for the powerful Douglas stable after coming out of the David Miles camp, not many improve out of that yard so maybe the change of environment is more for regular trips to this track, respect if the money comes for it though.
United is in top form so is the danger but will have to work at some point to win so that is the challenge ahead for it. If they go crazy then Surf Ace is in form and an opportunist so it would be hitting the line hard. But, you have to go with your map and as such full of confidence that Cemetery Bay has found the right conditions tonight so we bet with confidence.
BACK (WIN) Cemetery Bay at odds of $2 plus
Race Map
Stablemates hold the key to this race with Tupelo Beach drawn one who has heaps of gate speed and Fly Like An Angle in gate four who begins better from out wider on the track. In the middle of them is Treacherous Saint who also has good early speed but just do not see how it can find the top with the stablemates either side of it. It does not look a high pressure race after they settle into their positions so expect this race to be leader dominated.
Race Summary
As mentioned I do not see how Treacherous Saint can find the lead here, as such just have to take it on. Fly Like An Angel is likely to work to the lead and if that occurs it’s just about race over with Tupelo Beach sitting on its back and being a good place chance. That would also leave another runner in the market in Ozzie Playboy three back the fence and a place chance as well.
Fly Like An Angel hung at the start of the inside barrier last time, drawn out wider this time will have no such issues early and Alex Ashwood will no doubt be his normal aggressive self. So a good race to work with my map here and look for opportunities with the runners mentioned and how the market is playing out so we can either lay Treacherous Saint to win or bet around it with win and place options aplenty
LAY (WIN) — Treacherous Saint at odds of up to $5
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