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Melton
With VIC back in lockdown, there will be a lot of us focussing on Mildura trots this arvo so I have decided to delve deeper into the last 3 races and provide in-depth analysis and a plan of attack to come out on top.
Race Map
I have not nailed my maps as expected in the last few weeks but I am confident I have this one right. From gate two, Vallani Magic will lead, however, it always takes a sit and this means that Best Back Bruce will follow it across and to me just ambles to the lead.
Out wider on the track His Dream Lives On is the other with good gate speed but not sure it will be willing to use energy for zero result so expect it to either be eased off the gate or just come out with them. Beryls Grin will then likely be 3 fence.
The horse that could put tempo into the race is Joeys Hangover as it pulled very hard last time when racing without cover after an early move to sit outside the leader. Just a bit concerned that it has pulled so hard when in the clear so the tactics could be to try and drive it with cover to avoid the over racing again.
Race Summary
As I am ultra-confident in my map there is an opportunity to back to lay here with Best Back Bruce. I think he is a major winning chance in the race but if we can make a few dollars purely on the map that I am supremely bullish about then that’s the scenario we should take.
Vallani Magic sitting on its back is limited and whilst some rough hope I do not see it dashing past Best Back Bruce late. His Dream Lives On looks to be getting back to some better form so rate its chances highly here, as mentioned, its tactics will be interesting here.
I don’t think it could burn the gate sit outside the leader and win though, hence how it is driven will be critical. Joeys Hangover, Mighty Regal and Bronski Royal round out the winning hopes.
BACK to LAY (WIN) — Best Back Bruce at odds of $3+ – I would advise to green up in the first lap of the race before the pressure is applied.
Race Map
An experienced lot of trotters but that does not mean could be some errors early. Bit of speed here so could be tactical early and they would not want to overdo it in the first lap. Amour Fraternelle confuses the map a bit as from gate three two runs back she showed excellent early speed to lead easily yet last week from the pole position was crossed easy so I am not entirely sure what will occur here.
In that run two runs back where it led, You Really Got Me was drawn outside it and never looked like crossing so if you use that as a guide then hard to see it getting to the pegs unless Chris Svanosi aboard Amour Fraternelle is happy to sit. Out wider Bootleg Bert was a surprizing leader last start then was set a task with a solid tempo so it along with Flash Kyvalley have the potential to push forward.
A quick lead time will only help the ones off the back so both Aldebaran Tess and Zigzagzoo both get very good runs and likely to settle in forward positions.
Race Summary
Not overly confident of who leads here but I do think whatever scenario unfolds early that my top pick Zigzagzoo gets a really good run through and settles in a perfect spot. Any early burn by the front row runners will just suit it more and make me more confident in the run. It is in excellent form, fit and this class really suits.
Aldebaran Tess is the quality runner in the field but is first up here off a couple of soft trials and have great respect for her but think it will still benefit from the run and is taking on some hard fit horses here. Amour Fraternelle and You Really Got Me are the others that I give winning hopes too.
BACK (WIN) — Zigzagzoo to win at odds of $2.50+
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