Greyhound Analysis: Wentworth Park, Saturday 4th February 2017

Race 6 National Futurity Final – 520m

Track Record: Shakey Jakey 29.07 (6/4/2014)

Past Winners

2016 – Cash In Motion

2015 – Zipping Midge

2014 – Rue De Kahn

2013 – Sometimes Speedy

2012 – Midnight Capers

Race Analysis

Looks a three dog race on paper so tricky to find any lay opportunities as the other five will all be big prices. Going to back two with confidence here. STRIKER LIGHT has come up with a fantastic draw here, she can show lightning early pace but what caught my eye in her heat was the fact she missed the start but showed great courage on the first turn to push through strongly.

This versatility could get her a Group 1 win here. UP HILL HILL has previously won a Group 2 race and she was superb in winning her first up at the track, she carved out great sectionals and has drawn well, I am happy to have a saver on her. MAINLINE OSTI has been in great form of late and rarely runs a bad race, the box draw is tricky but I am not game to go against her.

I wouldn’t be surprised if she flew home and won here. PRINCESS POUT will likely struggle to cross from the wide draw and I don’t think she has the class to win. RED CALIBRE would need a stack of luck at the first turn to land in a winning position and is likely to get squeezed out early.

DAITHY ALLEN is the blowout chance and the Dailly camp can never be dismissed in these type of races. ANDREA DORIAsurprised me with her heat win and was a welcome return to form, I can’t see her getting any early favours her and may get shuffled back early. JODY LEE KADE looks outclassed here and I would be knocked over with a feather if she was to win here.

Field & Stats

1. Striker Light: Best 30.01 (14/1/17). Won her heat in 30.46 after missing start. Has a first split PB of 5.45. Ran 5.62 first split in heat. One from one this draw. Only missed placing twice in 12 career starts. Most inexperienced chaser in field.

2. Up Hill Jill: Best 29.87. Ran this time in heat with a first split of 5.39 (quickest). One from one this draw. Only missed placings three times in 19 starts. Group 2 Laurels Classic winner at Sandown Park.

3. Red Calibre: Best 30.20 (12/10/16). Runner up in heat running 30.76, first split of 5.53. Has not won her past eight starts. Three wins and two placings from five starts this draw.

4. Andrea Doria: Best 30.12. Ran this time in heat win with a first split of 5.50. Never in the placings from two starts this draw. Most experienced chaser in field. Five of eight career wins from Boxes 1-3.

5. Jody Lee Kade: No best time. Ran 30.55 when runner up in heat with a first split of 5.61. Has been runner up in her past four starts. Never missed a placing in three starts from this draw.

6. Mainline Osti: Best 30.07 (17/12/16). Won heat in 30.16 with a first split of 5.49. Been in the money in her past eight starts. Two wins and a placing from five starts this draw. Most experienced chaser over this circuit (17 starts).

7. Daithy Allen: No best time. Runner up in heat in time of 30.52. Ran first split of 5.72. Yet to win in four starts from this draw but has placed three times. Has only had the one start over this circuit (equal least).

8. Princess Pout: No best time. Runner up in heat in 30.42. First split of 5.53. Only one placing from this draw in two starts. Hasn’t won a race since December 26.

9. Flying Mikayla: First emergency. Best 29.94 (5/10/2016). Ran third in heat in time of 30.49. First split of 5.52. Nine of 10 career wins from Boxes 5-8.

10. Carla Zeus: Second emergency. Best 30.65 (24/10/16). Ran third in heat in time of 30.62. First split of 5.69. Only missed placing once in 4 starts over this circuit.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Striker Light > $2.70 for 6 units

 BACK (WIN) Up Hill Jill  > $2.70 for 2 units


R8 National Derby Final – 520m

Track Record: Shakey Jakey 29.07 (6/4/2014)

Past Winners

2016 – Magic Spring

2015 – Fernando Bale

2014 – Zipping Brock

2013 – Jagger Swagger

2012 – Sure As

Race Analysis

Great final with some potential good value on offer. LIGHTNING FRANK was superb in his heat win, earlier in his career he was risky at box rise but I loved the way he nailed the start last week. He may be ready for a career best performance and he should be able to step ahead of the inside three dogs and find the rails early. DYNA BOOMER is the wildcard of the race, he has freakish ability and will be thundering home, if there is one iota of trouble up front he is the backmarker I want to be on.

NANGAR ROCK was a great run in his heat, however it wasn’t the strongest heat and he benefited from several chasers running off on the first turn which meant he had no pressure down the back. He has another tricky draw here and I am happy to take him on. HIT THE HIGHWAY did have some early favours in his heat but he took the run powerfully at the first bend and is strong as an ox.

If he were to somehow lead good luck catching him. BLACK HOLE SUN got Betfair Insider followers off to a flyer last week but this is much tougher and I can’t see him crossing these rivals. You have to be a superstar to win from this draw at Wentworth Park. GOOD ODDS BRICKY stormed home to win his heat from nowhere, this is much harder and the draw has done him no favours. DUTY FREE has loads of ability but I can’t back a chaser who has had only three career wins and he will save for another time. BIG DADDY BEE looks outclassed here and I can’t see him winning even with the prime draw.

Field & Stats

1. Big Daddy Bee Best 30.51. Runner up in heat in 30.06 with a first split of 5.70. One from one this draw. Been in the money in his past four starts. Four of five career wins from Boxes 1-3.

2. Duty Free: No best time. Runner up in heat in time of 30.29. First split of 5.59. Group 1 Maturity Classic finalist at The Meadows. Never raced from this draw. Only three career wins (least in field).

3. Hit The Highway: Best 29.99. Ran this time in heat with a first split of 5.64. Runner up in Paws of Thunder heat over this trip last month. One placing in one start from this draw.

4. Lightning Frank: Best 29.96. Ran this time in heat win with a first split of 5.46. Has won his past four starts including the Group 1 Maturity Classic at The Meadows. Led all the way in heat. Had equal best first split in heat. Never won from this draw in five starts.

5. Nangar Rock: Best 29.88. Ran this time in heat with a first split of 5.46 (equal best). Led all the way in heat. Has never raced from this draw but has won twice from Box 6. In the money three times from four starts over this circuit.

6. Good Odds Bricky: Best 29.98 (26/11/16). Won heat in 30.38 with a first split of 5.72. Most experienced chaser over this circuit (17 starts). Two wins from two starts this draw.

7. Black Hole Sun: Best 29.91 (29/10/16). Won his heat in 30.57, first split of 5.71. Only missed a placing once in 10 starts over this trip. Has yet to win in two starts from this draw. Been in the money in his past three starts.

8. Dyna Boomer  No best time.  Runner up in heat in time of 30.03. First split of 5.77. Yet to miss a placing in three starts here. Has not won in three starts from this draw. Second most experienced chaser in field.

9. Nangar Bear: First emergency. Best 30.14 (21/1/2017). Runner up in heat in time of 30.41. 4 of seven career wins from Boxes 1-4. Only missed a placing four times in 16 career starts.

10. Agent Kade: Second emergency. Best 30.55 (18/1/16). Ran second in heat in time of 30.64. First split of 5.59. Best form has come from Boxes 1-6. Only one win in nine starts here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Lightning Frank > $2.90 for 4 units

 BACK (WIN) Dyna Boomer > $12.00 for 1 unit

 LAY (WIN) Nangar Rock < $5.50 for 3 units


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