Greyhound Analysis: Wentworth Park, Saturday 21st January 2017

Race 8 Paws of Thunder Final – 520m

Track Record: Shakey Jakey 29.07 (6/4/2014)

Past Winners

2016 – Asa Flying Spur

2015 – Dyna Villa

2014 – Iona Seven

2013 – Sheika

Race Analysis

Great final with several winning chances depending on where they map at the first turn. SHIMA BAR was sensational in his heat win where he made several mistakes and still chased hard to get up right on the line. He has again come up trumps with a great draw here and should land right behind the leaders at the first turn and be ready to strike.

STRIKER LIGHT was excellent here in her heat having her first look at the circuit, she pinged the lids and was never headed, I expect more pressure here but with her sensational box manners I am not willing to lay her. LOWANNA’S SON was gutsy in his heat win and has upside, even though he has the squeeze draw here it doesn’t look to bad on paper as he should get some room to move early.

BRAD HILL BILLY did have some favours in his heat win but at the end of the day he is a star chaser who finds a way to win and shows amazing track sense over this circuit. He can never be discounted. CLOCK’S TICKING pinged the lids in his heat and led all the way, whilst this is much harder, if he got the “mcfly” on them early he could run a huge race.

FALCON’S FURY was .01 off running the best time of the night in his heat but I am against him here, he will start far too short in the market, has never had a wide draw at this circuit and will struggle to cross some chasers underneath and I am keen to lay.MAGIC LACE will start the outsider here and is likely to get posted wide and I can’t see her winning. BLABBA MOUTH was all heart in winning his heat but he is likely to find this far too challenging and I can’t be on.

Field & Stats

1. Shima Bar: Best 30.27. Ran this time in heat win, has best first split of 5.60. Six of eight career wins Boxes 1-4. Won three of his past four starts. Been in the money in his past four starts. Only missed a placing twice in career.

2. Striker Light: Best 30.01. Ran this time in heat with a first split of 5.45. Led all the way in heat win. Has won her past three. Group 2 Laurels Finalist at Sandown Park. Least experienced chaser in field.

3. Blabba Mouth: Best 30.16 (8/10/16). Won his heat in 30.34 with a first split of 5.59. Only one unplaced run from this draw. In the money six times from 10 starts over this trip. Hasn’t missed a placing in last four starts.

4. Lowanna’s Son: Best 30.19. Ran this time in heat win with a first split of 5.51. Has won six times over this trip from 15 starts. Led all the way in heat. One unplaced run from this draw.

5. Brad Hill Billy: Best 29.37 (1/8/15). Won heat in 29.94 with a first split of 5.77 (slowest of heats). Most experienced chaser in field. In the money 28 times from 35 starts this trip. Has amassed $276,000 in prizemoney. Four wins from this draw.

6. Clock’s Ticking: Best 29.87 (24/9/16). Led all the way in heat running 30.09. Has a career best first split PB of 5.43. One win from two starts this draw. Has won from every box. Only missed a placing nine times in 39 starts.

7. Falcon’s Fury: Best 29.69 (30/12/16). Won his heat in 29.95 with a first split of 5.60. Has a PB first split 0f 5.41. Four wins from four starts this trip. Only missed a placing in 14 career starts. One from one this draw.

8. Magic Lace: Best 30.06 (30/11/2016). Won heat in 30.13 with a first split of 5.57. Has yet to place in two starts from this draw. Only one of two female chasers in field. Only three of nine career wins have come from wide draws (Boxes 5-8).

9. Black Hole Sun: First emergency. Best 29.91 (29/10/2016). Runner up in heat in time of 30.15. Placed in seven of eight starts over this circuit. Three wins from three starts from Box 8 so wide draw could suit if gains a start.

10. Takedown: Second emergency. Best 30.03 (27/2/16). Ran second in heat in time of 30.21. Nine of 12 career wins from Boxes 5-7. In the money 16 times from 23 starts this trip.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Shima Bar > $3.50 for 3 units

 BACK (PLACE) Lowanna’s Son < $4.00 for 1 unit

 LAY (WIN) Falcon’s Fury (7) < $3.90 (3 units)

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