Greyhound Analysis: The Meadows, Saturday 7th January 2017

Silver Chief Final – 525m

Track Record: Allen Deed 29.376 (3/2/2015)

Past Winners

2016- Midwinter

2015- Above All

2014- Ollie Bale

2013- Renegade Chief

2012- Godsend

Race Analysis

This is a race that can throw up some strange results over the years. THIRTY TALKS is very hard to tip against here, he has had two tricky draws in his heat and semi and after being posted wide and checked on the first turn he has still found a way to win both races. He returns to an inside draw here and he may be able to get more forward early and prove too classy.

MATT MACHINE is probably the most reliable beginner in the field and if he was to pinch an early break on these rivals he could establish a winning lead. LIGHTNING FRANK has been enormous in his two runs this series and still has a stack of upside, he has a tricky draw here but there is no way I would lay him. LORENZO BLUE has been racing with great heart but I would prefer him drawn closer to the rails and I think this is too big of a task for him.

HE’S LOADED is likely to find the going too hot by the back straight and would need a massive scrimmage behind him to be any chance of winning. REEFTON TREASURE is absolute quality and he looks to be getting better with every start. The wide draw is no help to him here but I expect him to be coming home like a freight train.

DUTY FREE can show plenty of early zip and if he can avoid any early trouble is a blow out each way chance at huge odds on the exchange. ROCKSTAR TROY can run wide on the turns and there is plenty of early toe and pressure coming from the outside and I can’t see him winning.

Field & Stats

1. Thirty Talks Best 30.07. Ran this time in semi win, has best first split of 5.17. 3 wins from starts this draw. Has won his past six starts. Group 1 Brisbane Cup winner in December.

2. He’s Loaded No best time. Ran third in heat and second in semi. Ran 30.11 overall with a first split of 5.06 in semi-final placing. Only won one race from seven starts. Recorded fastest first split (semi-finals) of any finalist.

3. Rockstar Troy Best 29.94 (11/11/16). Runner up in heat and semi with best time being 30.02. Recorded 5.07 PB in heat. Has never missed a placing from three starts this draw. Never worse than second in six starts over this circuit.

4. Matt Machine Best 29.79. Ran this time in heat win with a first split of 5.14. Also won his semi-final in 30.04. 2016 Group 1 Melbourne Cup finalist. Four wins from four starts over this trip. Never missed a placing in four starts from this draw.

5. Lightning Frank Best 29.66. Ran this time in semi-final win with a 1st split of 5.10. Two wins from two starts this draw. Five Top three finishes from six starts over this trip. nine of 12 career wins from Boxes 5-8.

6. Lorenzo Blue Best 30.16 (3/12/16). Runner up in both heat and semi-final. Ran 30.08 in semi with a best first split of 5.20. Has yet to race from this draw. Has the most experience over this circuit (nine starts). All four career wins from Boxes 1-5.

7. Reefton Treasure Best 29.76 (3/12/16). Runner up in heat and won semi-final in 29.81. Ran 5.20 first split in semi win. Never worse than second in two starts to this draw. Been placed in his past five starts. 12 of 14 career wins from Boxes 1-4.

8. Duty Free No Best time. Third in heat and runner up in semi-final. Ran 30.23 in semi-final with a first split of 5.19. Been placed in his past six starts. Only one start this draw for a second place finish. All three career wins from Boxes 4-5.

9. Yarraman Ace 1st emergency. Best 30.02. Ran this time in heat win. Ran 5.09 1st split in both heat and semi. Only missed placing once in 9 career starts. Led all the way in his heat win.

10. Myrniong Corner 2nd emergency. Best 29.54 (29/10/16). Has run third in both heat and semi with best time of 30.09. Has won four races over this trip(most). All four career wins from Boxes 1-4.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Thirty Talks for 5 units at greater than $2.10.

 BACK (WIN) Reefton Treasure for 3 units at greater than $2.00

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