Greyhound Analysis: The Meadows, Monday 31st October 2016

Race 8 Hume Cup Final – 600m

Track Record: Dyna Double One 33.91 (6/2/2016)


Past Winners

2015 – Secret Spell

2014 – My Bro Fabio

2013 – Alpe D’Huez

2012 – Jethro

2011 – Shintaro Samurai


Race Analysis

BUCK FORTY looks to have a great draw in this very intriguing final where it will be a battle of lightning early speed with some chasers and barnstorming finishes from others. He should be able to click through his gears nicely along the paint in the early stages and whilst I do believe he will at least be 5 lengths off the lead at the winning post the first time, he may be able to finish powerfully along the rail late and win.

AEROPLANE TOMMY was sensational in winning last start where he bombed the start but showed great mid race speed and track sense to prove too strong. He can be right in the finish here and the draw suits. FANTA BALE is so professional and is the epitome of a faultless beginner. She easily ran the fastest first sectional in her heat and should lead again. She will need to pinch a big early break here as the back markers will be storming home. Seeing she can lead easily, I am not game to lay her but happy to bet around her.

SILVERALI ran the fastest overall heat time but his consistency is an issue with me. He had a couple of shocking runs when starting a short priced favourite and is too unreliable for mine. I can’t see him backing up last week’s run here. POP THE CORKwas ultra-impressive in winning first up over this distance range in his heat. He may be able to begin more cleanly here and should find a forward position, but if he gets pressured early I am not keen to part with my money on him.

MARGINS has stormed home to win in recent runs but the wide draw is no help here and I can see him getting too far back, but could easily run into a placing. EDDIE EAGLE is likely to get posted wide on the first turn and looks outclassed for mine but is a dog to follow going forward.

BRAD HILL BILLY just can’t seem to crack it for a win in Victoria. I thought he should have won here last start and would need plenty of favours to win, but I am not willing to put the pen through him and I rate him as blow out chance here.


Field & Stats

1. Buck Forty: Best 34.47 (21/5/16). Won his heat in 34.78 with a 1st split of 9.37. Two wins from three starts over this circuit. Three wins and two seconds from six starts this draw. Group 2 Launching Pad winner at Sandown Park. Group 1 Peter Mosman winner at Wentworth Park.

2. Aeroplane Tommy: Best 34.41 (1/10/16). Won his heat in 35.03 with a 1st split of 9.40. Never beaten over this trip (three starts). 2 wins and 2 seconds from 4 starts this draw. 8 of 11 career wins from inside draws (Boxes 1-4).

3. Pop The Cork : Best 34.76 (22/10/16). Ran best time in heat win with a 1st split of 9.28. Heat win was first start over this distance range. Unplaced in three Group races to date. 1 win and 1 placing from 3 starts this draw.

4. Silverali: Best 34.45 (22/10/16). Led all the way in heat to post the fastest winning time of all heats with a 1st split of 9.08 (second fastest split). One unplaced run from this draw. and is the youngest chaser in field.

5. Brad Hill Billy: No best time. Recorded first split of 9.43 in heat. Most experienced chaser in field with 78 starts and has most career wins with 29. 0 from 8 in Victorian starts.

6. Fanta Bale: Best 34.73 (22/10/16). Ran a first split of 8.94 in heat win (quickest). Has won her past five starts, all of which by leading all the way. 12 wins from 16 starts. 3 of 5 wins at this track (including 525m).

7. Margins: Best 34.58 (22/6/16). Won heat in 34.73 with a first split of 9.24. In the money 5 times from 6 starts this trip. Has won his past three starts coming from well off the pace. Never won a race from this draw in 6 attempts.

8. Eddie Eagle: Best 34.73 (7/9/16). Runner up in heat where he ran first split of 9.17. 1 win and 1 placing from 4 starts this trip. 4 of 6 career wins have come from Boxes 1-2.

9. Reichenbach (1st Emergency): Best 34.77 (9/7/16). Ran first split of 9.10 in heat. Runner up in his past two starts at this track. Never finished worse than second in two starts over this trip.

10. Hukanui (2nd Emergency): Best 34.73 (7/9/16). Runner up in heat where he ran first split of 9.17. 1 win and 1 placing from 4 starts this trip. 4 of 6 career wins have come from Boxes 1-2.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Buck Forty for 4 units at > $3.50

BACK (WIN) Aeroplane Tommy for 2 units at > $4.20